Waiver Wire Wizardry: Pickups for Week 16

Harry Douglas
Whenever Julio Jones or Roddy White can’t go, Harry Douglas becomes an attractive fantasy option

Quarterback:

Robert Griffin III (31% Y!): Despite not starting this week, Griffin had a solid game in relief of Colt McCoy, who re-injured his neck on Sunday. Going up against an average Giants defense, Griffin finished with 236 yards and a touchdown. He also scrambled for 46 yards as well and almost rushed for a score. Griffin is at his best when he uses his legs, which he did yesterday. Despite the pedestrian stat line otherwise, it was a productive day for Griffin compared to what he has done this season. McCoy should be highly questionable for week 16 and Griffin will probably start even if the former is cleared. He faces an Eagles defense that has given up some big plays. RG3 will be a high-end QB2 this week.

Eli Manning (61% Y!): Despite losing Victor Cruz earlier in the season, Manning was paired up with budding superstar Odell Beckham JR. The young wideout had a decent game yesterday (Editor’s note: decent?!). Manning had 250 yards passing with 3 touchdowns (all to Beckham) and put up top-five numbers. Going up against a St. Louis defense that didn’t record an interception against the likes of Drew Stanton and Ryan Lindley, Manning should be viewed as a high-end QB2 due to the Rashad Jennings injury, which will likely force the G-men into more passing situations.

Running Back:

Matt Asiata (38% Y!): Facing an extremely tough Lions front seven, Asiata managed 86 combined yards and a touchdown, hauling in 7 receptions. With Jerick McKinnon out for the season and no possible way of Adrian Peterson returning, Asiata has been the main guy for the Vikings the past few weeks and should continue to be moving forward. Asiata is not an efficient running back, but he is trusted by the Vikings coaching staff and has been getting the bulk of the work, making him an interesting add. Minnesota’s opponent, the Miami Dolphins gave up 79 yards rushing and a touchdown to the duo of LaGarrette Blount and Jonas Gray last week. View him as a mid-tier RB3 in standard leagues.

Andre Williams (59% Y!): Williams came on in relief of Rashad Jennings, who re-injured his ankle on Sunday. Williams finished with 44 yards  on 18 carries against an extremely tough Redskins run defense. With the Giants out of the playoff hunt, it would be wise to expect Williams to be the starter for the rest of the season. While not much can be expected out of him in the receiving game, he is a hard runner who should see the majority of work in week 16 against the Rams defense. As good as the Rams defense has been, they gave up 136 rushing yards between the committee of Kerwynn Williams and Stepfan Taylor last Thursday. Williams should be considered a low-end RB2 with upside heading into your league’s championship.

Latavius Murray (56% Y!): Murray had a somewhat disappointing but efficient day against a stout Chiefs’ run defense. He managed 4.9 yards per carry (12 carries for 59 yards) and had 6 targets in the passing game as well. Murray has taken over the Raiders’ run game almost completely and is one of the only offensive producers in Oakland right now. The Raiders have a tough matchup against a terrific Bills defense on Sunday, but Murray will be the focal point in the offensive plan again and should be a lock for 12-15 touches. With his explosiveness and athleticism, Murray should be seen as an RB3.

Wide Receiver:

Harry Douglas (25% Y!): Douglas had a terrific game starting in place of the injured Julio Jones. He was targeted 14 times, hauling in 10 catches for 131 yards. He even had more targets and receptions than Roddy White. Jones was a game time decision but never even got a chance to test out his hip before the contest. Jones is no guarantee to suit up this week, making Douglas an attractive waiver wire add. Even if Julio does play, there’s a chance he could be used simply as a decoy. Douglas could have another great game against a Saints defense that has struggled this season. Douglas is a high-upside WR3 that could evolve into a solid WR2 if Jones can’t go.

Jarvis Landry (45% Y!): In 3 of Miami’s last 4 games, Landry has seen 11 targets. On Sunday he was again targeted 11 times, catching 8 passes for 99 yards. Undoubtedly the most consistent receiver in Miami, Landry has put up solid numbers over the past 7 weeks, averaging 8.57 targets, 6.57 receptions, 59.57 yards and .57 touchdowns per contest. That is an average of 15.94 points in PPR leagues, making him a solid WR2.

Charles Johnson (32% Y!): Johnson had another solid game versus Detroit, finishing with 5 receptions for 72 yards on 7 targets. In a hard-fought matchup with the Lions, Johnson tied for the most targets with Matt Asiata and Kyle Rudolph. His five receptions were also the second highest on the team. Teddy Bridgewater continues to use Johnson as his favorite wide receiver and nothing shows that this will change moving forward. Johnson is a mid-tier WR3 with a lot of upside in a slightly easier matchup with the Dolphins in week 16.

Photo cred: http://goo.gl/cz64ZC

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Doug Moore is a fantasy football contributor at The Sports Script. Follow him on Twitter @DMM0822!

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NFL Pick ‘Em; Bovada Bets for Week 12

Over the course of the last two football seasons I have played with some pocket change on Bovada.lv. It’s a website where you can bet on the lines of NFL games to MLB games to The Oscars (seriously). Over time I have had a lot of fun making bets. I usually partake in betting on straight lines, but I’ve also been known to get involved in other kinds, including sweetheart teasers.

What is a sweetheart teaser?

A sweetheart teaser for the most part plays out the same way as a regular teaser, except a sweetheart gives the bettors even more points. You can shift the line by 10 to 13 points in football (that’s nearly two touchdowns). There are a couple of differences. While regular teasers can include up to 10 teams, a sweetheart can include only three or four teams. Also, if any of your selections push on a sweetheart, you lose the entire bet.

Also, check out this link to gain a better understanding of the NFL spread betting.

As you can see, sometimes the gamble can be quite large when betting a teaser. Who doesn’t like a good risk once in a while? From this week forward, I am going to outline some of the bets I love, hate and my sweetheart teaser of the week!

Week 11 Recap:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +7 (-105): I was a huge fan of this bet and it paid off handsomely. The Bucs jumped out to a 10-0 lead and never looked back, winning 27-7.

Cincinnati Bengals + 7 ½ (-115): The Saints haven’t been good at football all season. The Bengals were coming off some recent struggles but the line was too high for a team that just wasn’t playing well either. The Bengals took it to ’em and cleared another great bet.

San Diego Chargers – 10 ½:  This is a bet I was avoiding, but the Chargers came through and helped me make it a 3 for 3 week.

Sweetheart Teaser: This played out exactly how I anticipated. The Seahawks at +7, Raiders at +16 ½ and the Patriots at +9. I love betting sweetheart teasers, especially in weeks like this where they cleared completely.

Overall, I was 4-0 in my bets last week and look to carry that success into week 12!

As of this writing there are no lines on the Bengals/Texans, Dolphins/Chargers, Bills/Jets or Broncos/Dolphins.

Week 12 bets I love:

San Francisco 49ers -9 (-115)

Gut call here. Washington is God awful as we saw last week against Tampa. The 49ers defense is much better and they should smoke the ‘Skins in week 12. Always go with your gut!

Seattle Seahawks +7 (+110)

The other side of this line is being bet on heavily, as the -7 for Arizona is at -130 now. It’s understandable, as Seattle clearly isn’t the team it was a season ago. The Cardinals have been fantastic all season long. However, I don’t expect them to go into Seattle and beat the Seahawks with Drew Stanton at the helm. After a tough loss to Kansas City last week, I think Marshawn Lynch and company blow out the birds.

Ravens +3 ½

Yep, I’m picking on the Saints again this week. They are a 3 and a half point favorite against a better Ravens squad. It’s the dome factor, obviously. If the line was right at 3, I would not be as excited to jump on this bet. However, if the Saints do pull off a win, I think it’s by a field goal.

Week 12 bets I’m avoiding:

Indianapolis Colts -14 (-115)

There’s always a chance this game won’t be a blowout. I don’t like the bet. I’m not telling you not to make it, just not one I’m investing in this week.

My sweetheart teaser lock of the week:

teaser

We’ve already talked about the Seattle bet, and getting it at -1 is even sexier.

The Lions face a red-hot Patriots team in New England this weekend. The line is large because it will take place in chilly Foxboro. However, the Lions defense is legit and they can really rush the passer. If they can get to Brady, they have a shot to win. Even if they don’t though, I can’t see them losing by two touchdowns. I love the 13 ½ I’m getting. Sign me up.

The Buccaneers showed up last week and shut down the Redskins, but they have a tougher task in week 12, and that’s the Chicago Bears. The Bucs are also 4-1 against the spread on the road this season. Chicago is going to win this game but I can’t see them just destroying Tampa. With that, they are the third team in my teaser.

Ricky is a co-owner, fantasy sports writer and gambling man at The Sports Script. Follow him on the Twitter machine @rickygangster!

Ricky’s Week 12 5-Pack Fantasy Sleepers

Each week, Ricky Valero will unleash his 5-pack of fantasy sleepers for the upcoming week. These players are going to make for great value plays while you construct your weekly DFS lineups.

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Be sure to tune in to The Sports’s Scripts two weekly fantasy football shows as well! The Fantasy Forecatser: Football is live on Tuesday at 10 PM EST and Sunday morning before kickoff at 11:30 AM EST! You can stream live or subscribe here.

For season-long fantasy football chatter, follow Ricky on Twitter @rickygangster!

The Fantasy Forecaster: Week 12 Start/Sit

Ricky was joined by fellow TSS writer Doug Moore and they discussed their Must Start/Must Sit for week 12.

Here is the short version of the show just telling who we picked.

You can also subscribe/download on iTunes here. Leave a rating, don’t be shy!

Make sure to follow Ricky (@rickygangster) and Doug (@DMM0822) on Twitter!

The guys will be back next week (November 25th)! Get your questions in on Twitter using the #TSS tag.

NFL Pick ‘Em; Bovada Bets for Week 11

Over the course of the last two football seasons I have played with some pocket change on Bovada.lv. It’s a website where you can bet on the lines of NFL games to MLB games to The Oscars (seriously). Over time I have had a lot of fun making bets. I usually partake in betting on straight lines, but I’ve also been known to get involved in other kinds, including sweetheart teasers.

What is a sweetheart teaser?

A sweetheart teaser for the most part plays out the same way as a regular teaser, except a sweetheart gives the bettors even more points. You can shift the line by 10 to 13 points in football (that’s nearly two touchdowns). There are a couple of differences. While regular teasers can include up to 10 teams, a sweetheart can include only three or four teams. Also, if any of your selections push on a sweetheart, you lose the entire bet.

Also, check out this link to gain a better understanding of the NFL spread betting.

As you can see, sometimes the gamble can be quite large when betting a teaser. Who doesn’t like a good risk once in a while? From this week forward, I am going to outline some of the bets I love, hate and my sweetheart teaser of the week!

Week 10 Recap:

Saints -6: Seriously the Saints go ahead with less than 2 minutes to go in the 4th and I’m ready to jump for joy as my sweetheart teaser is going to be 2 for 2! And them boom, Colin Kaepernick completes a 50-yard pass to Michael Crabtree, setting up the game-tying field goal. After that, the rest was history. I always bet the Saints at home, ugh.

Ravens -10: I won’t lie, I was a little nervous about this game and wasn’t sure we would get the cover. A late touchdown secured this bet though, making me a happy camper.

Steelers – 6: I talked this up all week everywhere! Trap game. I loved the Jets getting 6 points against a hot Steelers team. The masses have short attention spans. Recency bias, anyone? Sure, Pittsburgh had been on fire over the past couple of weeks, but they have been bad against teams with records below .500. The Jets actually ended up winning outright.

Sweetheart Teaser: The Jets did their part in this and the rest was just a disaster. The Saints blew it and the Panthers got murdered! Very sad day for the teaser.

Overall, I was 2-1 in the matchups but my teaser fell down for the week.

Week 11 is upon us and there are some very interesting matchups. Let’s dive right in; cannonball!

Week 11 bets I love:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +7 (-105)

Can someone please explain to me how the Washington Redskins are favorites by 7 points against anyone in the National Football League? That makes no sense and I am going to pounce on this game. I really don’t think Tampa is as bad as their record would tell us. This is what I like to call an easy money bet.

Cincinnati Bengals +7 1/2 (-115)

When the Bengals lose, they really lose. In their 3 losses, they’ve been outscored 84-20. Yikes! Still, a 7 and a half point spread is enticing. The orange and black have some fast, talented players, meaning the Saints’ 24th ranked pass defense will be on notice. This spread is too high in favor of the home team.

Week 11 bets I’m Avoiding:

San Diego Chargers -10 1/2

This bet will probably see a lot of action in favor of the Chargers but I think this Raiders team is going to play spoiler down the stretch. Oakland is 3 and 1 against the spread on the road this season. This smells like a trap game to me.

  • 49ers – 4 1/2
  • Giants + 4 1/2

I don’t like either side of this bet. Either team could come out and win. It’s hard to know which 49ers team will show up any given Sunday and the Giants have just had an odd season. Steer clear.

My sweetheart teaser lock of the week:

123

So you already know about my love for the Raiders this week, so let me talk about the other 2 bets on this week’s sweetheart teaser.

  • The Seahawks +7 (on the road against the Chiefs): This game really is a toss up. Kansas City could very well come out and beat this Seahawks team, I just don’t think it will be by a touchdown. Seattle just isn’t as good as they were a season go (obviously). Easy teaser here.
  • New England Patriots +9 (on the road against the Colts): The Colts are a very good football team but I think they are a bit overrated on the defensive side of the ball. Give Belichick and the Patriots two weeks to prepare for this Colts team and I will take 9 points wherever the game is. No chance the Pats fail to cover.

That’s a very confident teaser for me this week. So lets roll the dice and make some money, folks.

Ricky is a co-owner, fantasy sports writer and gambling man at The Sports Script. Follow him on the Twitter machine @rickygangster!

The Fantasy Forecaster: Week 8 Start/Sit

Ricky was joined by fellow TSS writer Doug Moore and they discussed their Must Start/Must Sit for week 8.

Here is the short version of the show just telling who we picked.

You can also subscribe/download on iTunes here. Leave a rating, don’t be shy!

Make sure to follow Ricky (@rickygangster) and Doug (@DMM0822) on Twitter!

The guys will be back next week (October 29nd)! Get your questions in on Twitter using the #TSS tag.

2014 Fantasy Football QB Rankings

The NFL opener is right around the corner and drafting has begun everywhere! So today I will unleash my QB rankings for this model year, 2014. This is the chart where I have each QB ranked along with their ADP (from FantasyPros.com) in the final column. At the end I touch on a couple of players that I have ranked differently than the consensus.

2014 Fantasy Football QB Rankings (07/21/14)

Rank Player Team Bye ADP
1 Peyton Manning DEN 4 1
2 Andrew Luck IND 10 5
3 Aaron Rodgers GB 9 3
4 Drew Brees NO 6 2
5 Matthew Stafford DET 9 4
6 Cam Newton CAR 12 6
7 Colin Kaepernick SF 8 11
8 Matt Ryan ATL 9 10
9 Tom Brady NE 10 8
10 Tony Romo DAL 11 12
11 Nick Foles PHI 7 9
12 Jay Cutler CHI 9 14
13 Ben Roethlisberger PIT 12 16
14 Robert Griffin III WAS 10 7
15 Andy Dalton CIN 4 17
16 Russell Wilson SEA 4 13
17 Josh McCown TB 7 22
18 Philip Rivers SD 10 15
19 Johnny Manziel CLE 4 18
20 Carson Palmer ARI 4 24
21 Alex Smith KC 6 21
22 Joe Flacco BAL 11 23
23 Eli Manning NYG 8 19
24 Ryan Tannehill MIA 5 20
25 Jake Locker TEN 9 25
26 Sam Bradford STL 4 26
27 Teddy Bridgewater MIN 10 25
28 Geno Smith NYJ 11 27
29 E.J. Manuel BUF 9 28
30 Ryan Fitzpatrick HOU 10 30

Why I ranked this guy higher than his average ADP

Colin Kaepernick – my rank: 7th, average ADP: 11th

I have never been a big fan of Kaep but I have a real good feeling about him heading into 2014. The Niners added him another weapon in Steve Johnson, even at an older age he still can make some players and pairing him with Michael Crabtree (who when healthy makes Kaep a better QB), Boldin and Davis. I would take the over on 30 total TD in 2014 which would fit well into the top-tier of Fantasy QB.

Why I ranked this player lower than the consensus

Robert Griffin III – my rank: 14th, average ADP: 7th

I am just not sold on him being able to stay healthy one bit. He needs to make smarter plays on his feet and honestly in order for him to do so, I think his numbers are going to drop dramatically in the rushing category. He is being drafted as a #1 QB this year in Fantasy and he just isn’t that. He is far too inconsistent and more of a week to week matchup kind of starter for me.

Thoughts? Questions? Concerns? Get at Ricky on Twitter @Rickygangster!

2014 Ultra-Mega-Super Early Top 10 Fantasy Football Rankings

The 2013 Fantasy Football season has come and went again. Hopefully you guys ended up better than mine since I lost 3 title games by a combined margin of 8 points. But no need to live in 2013 let’s go ahead and burst onto the 2014 ridiculously early top 10 picks of the 1st round. I will be unleashing my awfully early rankings for each position as the month rolls but here is what my top 10 looks like right now.

2014 Top 10 ultra-mega-super Early Fantasy Football Rankings

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1. LeSean McCoy – This is a tie between him and Charles and don’t think you can go wrong with either guy but McCoy would be my guy right now. As it sits (before offseason moves) McCoy has 9 matchups against teams that gave up the 10th or higher most fantasy points to opposing RBs.

2. Jamaal Charles – Like I stated can’t go wrong in either the 1st or 2nd spot this year. Charles is a beast and had an unbelievable Fantasy season.

3. Matt Forte – 2013 was good to Forte with a career high in Rushing Yards, TDs, Catches, Receiving yards and finally was the go to man in the redzone. The arrow is only pointing up for him in 2014.

4. Calvin Johnson – I have never been big on drafting anything other than RBs in the top half of the 1st round but when you produce as well as MegaTron does you have to make an exception.

5. Adrian Peterson – We all knew he wouldn’t duplicate his 2012 season but even with missing a couple of games Peterson was the 5th leading rusher. With a new coaching staff and more than likely a new QB, he really could be a steal on draft day.

6. Le’Veon Bell – Bell is my favorite of any of the young running backs heading into 2014. Bell totaled 1259 yards with 8 TDs in only 13 games and that’s why he will be a top-tier pick this coming year.

7. Marshawn Lynch – I was down on him going into 2013 and was wrong. I don’t like to be wrong twice, 1200+ yards and double-digit TDs in each of his last 3 seasons. Sign me up.

8. Eddie Lacy – He and Bell are going to be a lot of fun to watch over the next few years. I like Bell more but Lacy is going to have a very god season as well.

9. Doug Martin – Coming off the injury will be very risky drafting him but another top RB that could be a steal in round 1.

10. Josh Gordon – Did you see what this guy did with the QBs he had? Not only that he finished with 147 more yards than the 2nd place and that was with missing 2 games. Unreal.

Even though the season is over I will be giving you more rankings per position over the next couple weeks as well as dissecting where Free Agents land and what the Fantasy Impact will be for those players.

Think I missed something? Tell me who you would have in the top spot heading into 2014.

Make sure to hope on over to twitter and give me a follow and maybe even debate who I have ranked where. (@rickygangster)

Week 16 Fantasy Football Sleepers

Most of you reading this are in the playoffs and playing for the Title or in some cases the game before the title. First off, Good luck and we here at the Sports Script hope we have been helpful enough to get you playing where you are right now. We look forward to helping many others in the years to come.

This week there are some really good matchups across the board but with the uncertainty of some big name guys (Peterson, Fitzgerald and possibly the return of Aaron Rodgers). So I am here to give you my week 16 Fantasy Football Sleepers

Week 16 Fantasy Football Sleepers

Ben Roethlisberger vs. Green Bay Packers

The Steelers got up big early and really didn’t need Ben to do much this week. Prior to last week’s Big Ben had thrown for multiple touchdowns in 5 straight games. I look for him to his TD total this week against a Packers D that has given up 7 TDs over the last 3 games.

Alfred Morris vs. Dallas Cowboys

Morris is quietly the 5th leading rusher in football this season but has only found the endzone 6 times and once since week 9. He has a great matchup against a Cowboy run D that I think I could get 100 yards on (that’s saying a lot). Morris had 81 yards and a TD in the week 6 matchup against the Boys and this week he is a risky play as you don’t know how he will be used but I think he is certainly worth the look with the matchup he has.

Ben Tate vs. Houston Texans (Same could be said for Dennis Johnson if Tate doesn’t play)

Tate had a pretty good game on Sunday that got ruined by his two fumble. He went for 92 total yards but didn’t find the endzone for the 2nd straight week. He draws a Denver Broncos team that has given up an average of 122 yards and 1.5 touchdowns to opposing RBs over the last 4 games. Both of these guys are worth a look this week if you own them.

Emmanuel Sanders vs. Green Bay Packers

Sanders touchdown streak was halted at 3 games after not finding the endzone against the Bengals. This week we could see a shootout in Green Bay. Both defenses have been suspect against the pass and this could be the week Sanders scores his 6th TD of the year.

Brian Hartline vs. Buffalo Bills

Hartline has been on fire over the last 6 weeks. He has at least 5 catches and 50 yards in every game since week 9 and has scored 2 TDs in the last 3 games. In a PPR format he has been a stud. This week he faces Buffalo and he caught 6 balls for 69 yards in their week 7 matchup. If I it was me I would start Hartline this week but a strong sleeper play this week.

Tyler Eifert vs. Minnesota Vikings

Eifert succeeded in the 2nd half against the Steelers after Gresham went down. He found the endzone for the 1st time since week 7. If Gresham is down and you are missing a tight end due to the injury of Gronkowski, Eifert is the man to play. The Vikings have given up 3 TDs in the previous two games and haven’t been that good against TEs all season (averaging 9 PPG).

San Diego Chargers D vs. Oakland Raiders

The Chargers are coming off a high in beating the Broncos and holding them to a season low 17 points, which actually scares me a little in playing them because they could just let us down but I don’t see that happening this week. Chargers are a really good streaming option for Fantasy owners everywhere

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