Eight In The Box: IDP Waiver Wire Week 15

Barry Church
Barry Church is worth using against the high-powered Eagles offense in week 15

Looks like I cooled off a bit – at least for my Fantasy Forecaster suggestions. Not a good thing as we head to the playoffs. This was my first sub-60% week since week 8 for the pod. On the bright side, the picks you come here for were 7-2, upping my season long success rate to 71%. The moral of the story, I must get flustered by Doug and Payton on the podcast and it throws me off.

My total score for the week was 14-10-2 (60%). Not too bad but now that playoffs are here, every call is magnified and I have to do better than that. After all, you guys are coming here for expert picks and 60% isn’t going to cut it.

 Week 14 results from the Sunday pod:

Player Stats Start/Sit Result Type
Whitney Mercilus 1/0/0 Start Loss IDP
Mario Williams 2/0/0 Sit Win IDP
Jerry Hughes 2/0/0 Sit Win IDP
Chris Long 1/0/0 Start Loss IDP
Robert Quinn 3/2/1.5/PD Start Win IDP
Jurrell Casey 1/3/0; 3 QB Hits Start Loss IDP
Alec Ogletree 2/5/0/PD Start Loss IDP
James Laurinitus 4/2/1.5/PD Start Win IDP
Paul Worrilow 3/2/0/PD Start Loss IDP
Pierre Garcon 9-95yds Sit Loss Offense
Isaiah Crowell 14-54 yds; TD Start Win Offense
Rashad Jennings 2-5yds/1-17 yds Diminished Roll N/A Offense
Jordan Cameron 4-41yds Start – if Active Tie Offense
Jordan Reed 3-25 yds Start Loss Offense
Delanie Walker 4-27 yds Start Loss Offense
Donte Moncrief 3-33 yds Flex Play Tie Offense
Chad Greenway 7/4/0 Start Win IDP
Jonathan Stewart 20-155; TD Start Win Offense

Week 14 Summary: 7-8-2  (47%)

Season Summary (since week 8): 59-29-2 (67%)

*IDP Stats are listed as:  Solos/Assists/Sacks; PD = Pass Defensed; FR = Fumble Recover; INT = Interception

Week 14 Results from this column:

Player Stats Start/Sit Result Type
Ziggy Ansah 1/0/1 Start Y IDP
Demarcus Ware 0/0/0 Start N IDP
JJ Watt 4/0/3/PD Start (2 sacks/     4 solo min) Y IDP
Chad Greenway 7/4/0 Start Y IDP
Bobby Wagner 7/0/0 Start Y IDP
Danny Lansanah 7/1/0 Start Y IDP
Eric Weddle 6/1/0 Start Y IDP
Jonathan Cyprian 5/3/0 Start Y IDP
Kam Chancellor 1/1/0/PD Start N IDP

Week 14: 7-2 (78%)

Season Summary: 66-27 (71%)

Week 15 injuries of note:

  • Chandler Jones (NE DL): Jones has practiced in a limited fashion this week. I don’t have much confidence in him having an impact until I see him going full speed in a game situation. I would hold him out until he gets into game action. If you are in a dynasty league and he is on the waiver wire for some reason I would pick him up as a stash for next year. He is still a top 10 DL when healthy.
  • Haloti Ngata (BAL DL): Ngata was suspended 4 games for substance abuse. Time to drop him as he is done for the year. This is probably a bigger deal to Baltimore’s team defense then to fantasy owners.
  • Shariff Floyd (MIN DL): Floyd started the game last week only to re-injure his knee and have to leave the contest. I would target him as a buy-low in dynasty leagues as he should be fine for next year. The way the Vikings defense improved under Mike Zimmer I would expect big things from Floyd in 2016. For this year he is too risky to start unless he gets a clean bill of health.
  • Muhammad Wilkerson (NYJ DL): Wilkerson is still suffering from his turf toe injury. However, he is trying to practice with a special shoe. I wouldn’t even think about using him at this stage of the season until he is healthy and shows he still has the same power and explosion.
  • Gerald McCoy (TB DL): McCoy briefly left the game last week with a knee injury. He returned to the game and it’s being reported as only a bruise. He should be good to go.
  • Jadeveon Clowney (HOU LB): Well, the second opinion didn’t come back good. The Texans placed Clowney on IR, ending his season. The more important news (especially in dynasty leagues) is that he is going in for microfracture surgery on his troublesome knee and will be out for at least 9 months. The worry here is that he will lose that explosion off the line which was his best attribute. If I have him in dynasty I might look to see if there is another owner out there willing to take the risk as he is most likely 2 years away from getting back to form, if ever.
  • Vontaze Burfict (CIN LB): He was placed on IR due to his knee issue. That means that Vinny Rey should continue to be an effective LB 2 or 3 for the remainder of the year. This was a very disappointing year for anyone that drafted Burfict expecting a 2013 repeat. At this point I would stay away from him in any dynasty league due to the myriad of injuries he has had. The biggest of which were repeat concussions earlier in the year.
  • NaVorro Bowman (SF LB): Bowman was activated from the PUP list but I wouldn’t even bother with him. Chris Borland has been phenomenal and the rest of the 49ers have given up on the year. I don’t see management putting Bowman out there this year and if they do I wouldn’t expect him to do much. He might be a low risk dynasty pickup as he will have had 18 months of recovery time from his surgery at the start of next year.
  • Lavonte David (TB LB): David suffered what appeared to be a concussion late in Sunday’s game. He will have to pass the concussion protocol so pay attention to the reports as the week goes along. If he is active he has to be in your lineup. Either way Danny Lansanah has been impressive over the last few weeks and should be owned.
  • Antonio Cromartie (ARI DB): Cromartie left last week’s game with an ankle injury but reports are that he is expected to play Thursday night against the Rams. I wouldn’t expect a big game out of Cromartie either way.
  • Kenny Vaccaro (NO DB): Vaccaro was benched after a horrendous year. He is safe to drop in re-draft leagues but you may want to hold on in dynasty leagues to see what happens in the off-season. He is a highly touted prospect that was a top draft pick so he has some talent.
  • Louis Delmas (MIA DB): Delmas suffered a torn ACL and has been placed on IR. He is done for the season.

Who to play (or not):

DL:

  • Ziggy Ansah (DET DL): The Vikings are allowing pressure on almost 20% of their passes as well as sacks on about 10% of their drop backs. Ansah is in line for a huge day as Minnesota has given up 6 sacks over the last 2 weeks.
  • Cameron Jordan (NO DL): Surprisingly, the Bears didn’t give up a sack last week in that garbage time bonanza. However, that was against the Cowboys who only have 19 total sacks on the year. There will be sacks to be had this week and I expect Jordan to feast.
  • Charles Johnson (CAR DL): Tampa Bay gave up 6 sacks last week and now Johnson comes to town. He was a held off the stat sheet last week against the Saints but they don’t give up sacks. He will eat, as he has a sack in every other game since week 7.
  • Damontre Moore (NYG DL): He is more of a dynasty stash but does have some upside this week. Moore had 2 sacks last week against the lowly Titans as he played in 78% of the snaps. He is starting to get playing time and that is resulting in him getting to the quarterback. He gets Washington this week so he should have some chances. Tough to start a guy like this in a playoff game but if he is available pick him up as a dynasty stash for next year at the very least.

LB:

  • Rolando McClain (DAL LB): Last week against the Eagles he had a decent game with 6 solos. He is a high floor option this week as there will be plenty of opportunities.
  • Curtis Lofton (NO LB): Coming off an 11/6/0/FR game last week I expect another big showing on Monday night against the Bears. Lofton hasn’t been below 6 solo tackles since week 9 and in that game he had 6 assists so he was around the ball. Get him in your lineup this week.
  • Elvis Dumervil (BAL LB): Dumervil is coming off a 3.5 sack game against the Chargers and now he gets Jacksonville. He is a must-start in big play leagues but I see another big game this week with at least one sack. Get him in the lineup.

DB:

  • Ryan Mundy (CHI DB): Mundy has had no less than 6 solo tackles in 4 of the last 5 games. The one game he didn’t he had an interception against the Vikings. I think he will be tested often against the Saints and he will continue his tackle streak and high floor numbers.
  • Barry Church (DAL DB): I am following my own rule of using safeties against the Eagles. Church should get lots of opportunities and take advantage. In their last game against the Eagles he put up 9/2/0/PD so expect a lot of the same in week 15.
  • Antrel Rolle (NYG DB): Last time out against Washington, Rolle had 1 tackle and an interception. I am going to say sit him this week as I don’t think he will be in line for much in this game.

Photo cred: http://goo.gl/TZvGrm

Check out FantasyRundown.com for all of our latest articles and other great fantasy content.

Shane Gallimore is a fantasy football contributor and co-host of the live Sunday edition of The Fantasy Forecaster. Follow him on Twitter @Gally4!

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Waiver Wire Wizardry: Pickups for Week 14

It's time!
It’s time!

The fantasy playoffs are here! Read this thoroughly to make sure you are making the right additions to help win your league! You can thank me later with a portion of your winnings, of course.

Quarterback:

Johnny Manziel (11% Y!): Ladies and gentlemen, it is time. As much as it pains me to say this because I am a fan of Brian Hoyer, Manziel was put in the game late on Sunday at Hoyer’s expense. Manziel threw for just 63 yards but rushed for a touchdown. Head coach Mike Pettine declined to comment on who would be starting next weekend, but it’s become evident that Manziel gives the Browns the best chance to win. If Manziel does indeed get the nod, everyone in this offense gets a boost, including Josh Gordon. Considering his ability to run the ball, Manziel could wind up as a borderline QB1 this week. Stay tuned.

Colt McCoy (5% Y!): In a much needed move, RG3 was benched in Washington. Next up? Colt McCoy. The Redskins didn’t win on Sunday, but McCoy had a great day fantasy wise (besides the 4 fumbles, but I digress). He threw for 392 yards and 3 scores in a loss to the Colts. He did lose DeSean Jackson to a leg injury, but it is believed to only be a fibula contusion. Jackson was in a lot of pain but this week in practice will show if he can play or not. Regardless, Andre Roberts would step up in his place, along with a now-healthy Jordan Reed and Pierre Garcon. McCoy is a QB2 play for week 14.

Running Back:

Daniel Herron (47% Y!): “Boom” had a day on Sunday, with 88 yards rushing and a touchdown. He also had 2 catches for 8 yards. Herron and Trent Richardson split the carries evenly but the former played a much better game. I expect Herron to take over lead duties as soon as this week, and should fill the role left by Ahmad Bradshaw. Boom did have another fumble on Sunday, and that’s something he needs to fix right away. If he does, look for him to get more work moving forward and find himself in the RB2 discussion.

LaGarrette Blount (63% Y!): Blount finished Sunday with 10 rushes for 58 yards against Green Bay. He did not have the game many expected against a weak Packers run defense, but still had an impressive 5.8 YPC and got the majority of New England’s backfield carries (Bolden 3, Gray 1, Vereen 3). Blount will probably get the majority of the reps in the power run game moving forward, but again, the Patriots are tough to figure out and it’s hard to rely on any of their backs from week to week. He needs to be owned, and warrants flex discussion in the immediate future.

Latavius Murray (49% Y!): Murray did not play on Sunday, and it’s probably good he didn’t. The Raiders were demolished 52-0 by the Rams. Murray is out with a concussion he suffered in his breakout game last Thursday night. He is progressing and has a good chance to be ready for Sunday. Murray will be worth a look this week, but be aware that Oakland will face a tough 49ers run defense. His ceiling is high, but his matchups over the remainder of the season are not favorable. He’ll be a low-end flex play upon his return.

Wide Receiver:

Donte Moncrief (4% Y!): Have a day, Mr. Moncrief! The talented rookie wideout is yet another example of how this year’s draft class was one of the best in recent memory. He had a 3/134/2 line against the Redskins on Sunday, scoring on 2 long plays. Moncrief is clearly entrenched as Andrew Luck’s number 3 receiver and weekly upside play, although consistent production may be hard to count on. If you’re looking for a weekly home run threat, he’s probably your man.

Kenny Stills (41% Y!): Since Brandon Cooks went down with an injury, Kenny Stills has been money and has more than picked up the slack. Stills dropped a 5/162/1 line on the Steelers Sunday as Drew Brees targeted him 6 times. Many in the industry thought that Marques Colston would be the one to benefit from the Cooks injury, but Stills has been the one to step up. The speedster is now a weekly WR2 and should be owned across the board.

Robert Woods (6% Y!): Woods is a bit of a wild card. Over the past two games, Woods has had a 13/189/1 line with 18 targets. With opposing teams being so concerned with stopping Sammy Watkins, Kyle Orton has had to resort to throwing the ball elsewhere. Woods is looking like that guy, ad he was targeted 7 times on Sunday. Since being taken by the Bills in the 2013 draft, Woods has had to deal with terrible quarterback play in Buffalo. Not void of talent, this could be the chance for him to show the league what he can do.

Tight End:

Jordan Reed (49% Y!): Reed finished week 13 with 9 receptions and 123 yards on 11 targets. Colt McCoy seems to like throwing to him and there has never been a question of ability here. If healthy, he’s a player you want to start, especially considering the dearth of talent at tight end. As long as he is on the field, he’s a TE1 and could continue to produce very good numbers for the remainder of the season.

Jordan Cameron (54% Y!): Cameron has sat the last 5 weeks with a concussion. But the good news is that he practiced all week and could practice again this week which should put him on track to return in week 14. With Johnny Manziel presumably taking over the offense, Cameron could put up great stats with a dynamic signal caller under center. As with Reed, Cameron is a TE1 when he is on the field and could be good to go for a fantasy playoff run.

Photo cred: http://goo.gl/cir1CA

Check out FantasyRundown.com for all of our latest articles and other great fantasy content!

Doug Moore is a fantasy football contributor at The Sports Script. Follow him on Twitter @DMM0822!

Waiver Wire Wizardry: Pickups for Week 13

The final week of the regular season for standard leaguers is upon us. Check your waiver wire to see if any of these players are available and good luck in week 13!

Quarterback:

Ryan Tannehill (66% Y!): After the Broncos lost in stunning fashion to St. Louis last weekend, Miami almost handed Denver a second straight defeat, as the Broncos narrowly won in an offensive showdown. The main reasons Miami nearly upset the Broncos was because of Ryan Tannehill’s play, as he produced 4 touchdowns; 3 through the air and 1 on the ground. Tannehill has been terrific over the past 4 games for the Dolphins, with 10 touchdowns to only 2 picks. He’s made a solid connection with rookie wide receiver Jarvis Landry (see below) and has a terrific matchup this week against the dreadful Jets’ secondary. He is a low-end QB1 that could really help you if you’re on the cusp of a fantasy playoff appearance.

Running Back:

Murray
Is there finally a member of the Raiders worth using in fantasy circles?

Latavius Murray (24% Y!): This man set the world on fire last Thursday, rushing 4 times for 112 yards and 2 scores in only one half of football. He went down with a concussion, but it was a Thursday night game and this is Murray’s first ever concussion. He should have no problem getting cleared by Friday and will likely be ready to go against a putrid Rams defense. Head coach Tony Sporano indicated that after this performance, Murray would be granted even more work. He’s got a very high ceiling and could even wind up in the low-end RB2 discussion.

LaGarrette Blount (30% Y!): What a turn of events for Blount over the last 10 days. He was released by the Steelers early last week, only to sign on with New England (the team he played for in 2013) to a 2-year deal. Blount was only expected to be a change of pace back, but with Jonas Gray foolishly oversleeping and missing practice, the keys to the run game were handed over to LaGarrette. He stepped into a familiar offense and showed the same tough running skills that made him so popular with the New England coaching staff a season ago. Gray did not even receive a carry and may be in the doghouse for good, leaving Blount as the primary rusher with Shane Vereen as the main pass catcher. Blount had 2 rushing scores on Sunday aganst a very tough Lions defense and should be considered a low-end RB2 this week.

Wide Receiver:

Jarvis Landry (21% Y!): The “other” LSU rookie wideout (opposite to Odell Beckham Jr.) makes his debut on this list after putting together a string of 4 solid performances. Quickly emerging as Ryan Tannehill’s favorite target, Landry has at least 5 catches in the past 4 games. Further, he’s scores 4 times and has at least 46 yards receiving in each game during that span. He’s putting up solid numbers and is coming off of a 2-touchdown game against Denver on Sunday. In leagues that award extra points for return yards, he’s even more valuable. Landry is a mid-tier WR3 and a low-end WR2 in PPR leagues, thanks to ability to play in the slot.

Kenny Stills (34% Y!): While every other fantasy football writer was predicting Marques Colston to see a big boost in production in the wake of Brandin Cooks’ season ending thumb/hand injury, this guy (points at self) predicted Kenny Stills to see an uptick in production. Stills set a career high in targets (9) and catches (8) in only the first game since Cooks went down. Stills’ uptick in targets along with a terrific rest-of-season schedule make him a receiver to snatch up now and utilize as a higher-end WR3.

Charles Johnson (2% Y!): Johnson began the season as somewhat of a sleeper. He was waived early on by the Browns and was subsequently picked up by the Vikings. Over the past 2 weeks, it seems as though Johnson has emerged as Teddy Bridgewater’s favorite target. During this span, he’s hauled in 9 (18 targets) passes for 139 yards while finding pay dirt once. With Minnesota’s other aerial threats being next to invisible (I’m looking at you, Cordarrelle), Johnson is in a great position to produce. Unfortunately, we have to temper our expectations for him right now and make him a high-end WR4. However, Johnson has a very high ceiling and another great performance could elevate him to WR3 status.

Tight End:

Tim Wright (15% Y!): The man that was supposed to take over for Aaron Hernandez in New England had not really been used much before Sunday. As Rotoworld points out, Wright had never played more than 21 snaps in a game and all of a sudden played 61 out of 81 snaps against the Lions. He had 5 catches for 36 yards and 2 touchdowns on 6 targets. Now this could be a game-specific explosion, or it could be the start of something and owners shouldn’t hesitate. He’s a high-risk start, but probably needs to be owned in more leagues. The tight end class is crap and we know that. Make it happen.

Kyle Rudolph (47% Y!): When it came to potential breakouts in 2014, Rudolph was one of the more talked about players at the tight end position. He’s disappointed so far, mainly due to a groin injury that kept him inactive for all but 4 games, but he is back on the field and should be ready to produce. He played 61 of 69 snaps on Sunday and had 5 targets as well. He should be seen as a low-end TE1 right now who could strike gold for owners who scoop him up for the fantasy playoffs.

Photo cred: http://goo.gl/pSHmt8

Check out FantasyRundown.com for all of our latest articles and other great fantasy content!

Doug Moore is a fantasy football contributor at The Sports Script. Follow him on Twitter @DMM0822!

NFL Pick ‘Em; Bovada Bets for Week 12

Over the course of the last two football seasons I have played with some pocket change on Bovada.lv. It’s a website where you can bet on the lines of NFL games to MLB games to The Oscars (seriously). Over time I have had a lot of fun making bets. I usually partake in betting on straight lines, but I’ve also been known to get involved in other kinds, including sweetheart teasers.

What is a sweetheart teaser?

A sweetheart teaser for the most part plays out the same way as a regular teaser, except a sweetheart gives the bettors even more points. You can shift the line by 10 to 13 points in football (that’s nearly two touchdowns). There are a couple of differences. While regular teasers can include up to 10 teams, a sweetheart can include only three or four teams. Also, if any of your selections push on a sweetheart, you lose the entire bet.

Also, check out this link to gain a better understanding of the NFL spread betting.

As you can see, sometimes the gamble can be quite large when betting a teaser. Who doesn’t like a good risk once in a while? From this week forward, I am going to outline some of the bets I love, hate and my sweetheart teaser of the week!

Week 11 Recap:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +7 (-105): I was a huge fan of this bet and it paid off handsomely. The Bucs jumped out to a 10-0 lead and never looked back, winning 27-7.

Cincinnati Bengals + 7 ½ (-115): The Saints haven’t been good at football all season. The Bengals were coming off some recent struggles but the line was too high for a team that just wasn’t playing well either. The Bengals took it to ’em and cleared another great bet.

San Diego Chargers – 10 ½:  This is a bet I was avoiding, but the Chargers came through and helped me make it a 3 for 3 week.

Sweetheart Teaser: This played out exactly how I anticipated. The Seahawks at +7, Raiders at +16 ½ and the Patriots at +9. I love betting sweetheart teasers, especially in weeks like this where they cleared completely.

Overall, I was 4-0 in my bets last week and look to carry that success into week 12!

As of this writing there are no lines on the Bengals/Texans, Dolphins/Chargers, Bills/Jets or Broncos/Dolphins.

Week 12 bets I love:

San Francisco 49ers -9 (-115)

Gut call here. Washington is God awful as we saw last week against Tampa. The 49ers defense is much better and they should smoke the ‘Skins in week 12. Always go with your gut!

Seattle Seahawks +7 (+110)

The other side of this line is being bet on heavily, as the -7 for Arizona is at -130 now. It’s understandable, as Seattle clearly isn’t the team it was a season ago. The Cardinals have been fantastic all season long. However, I don’t expect them to go into Seattle and beat the Seahawks with Drew Stanton at the helm. After a tough loss to Kansas City last week, I think Marshawn Lynch and company blow out the birds.

Ravens +3 ½

Yep, I’m picking on the Saints again this week. They are a 3 and a half point favorite against a better Ravens squad. It’s the dome factor, obviously. If the line was right at 3, I would not be as excited to jump on this bet. However, if the Saints do pull off a win, I think it’s by a field goal.

Week 12 bets I’m avoiding:

Indianapolis Colts -14 (-115)

There’s always a chance this game won’t be a blowout. I don’t like the bet. I’m not telling you not to make it, just not one I’m investing in this week.

My sweetheart teaser lock of the week:

teaser

We’ve already talked about the Seattle bet, and getting it at -1 is even sexier.

The Lions face a red-hot Patriots team in New England this weekend. The line is large because it will take place in chilly Foxboro. However, the Lions defense is legit and they can really rush the passer. If they can get to Brady, they have a shot to win. Even if they don’t though, I can’t see them losing by two touchdowns. I love the 13 ½ I’m getting. Sign me up.

The Buccaneers showed up last week and shut down the Redskins, but they have a tougher task in week 12, and that’s the Chicago Bears. The Bucs are also 4-1 against the spread on the road this season. Chicago is going to win this game but I can’t see them just destroying Tampa. With that, they are the third team in my teaser.

Ricky is a co-owner, fantasy sports writer and gambling man at The Sports Script. Follow him on the Twitter machine @rickygangster!

Ricky’s Week 12 5-Pack Fantasy Sleepers

Each week, Ricky Valero will unleash his 5-pack of fantasy sleepers for the upcoming week. These players are going to make for great value plays while you construct your weekly DFS lineups.

New to Daily Fantasy? Head over to FanDuel.com and use Promo Code SCRIPT and get 100% match on your first deposit!

Be sure to tune in to The Sports’s Scripts two weekly fantasy football shows as well! The Fantasy Forecatser: Football is live on Tuesday at 10 PM EST and Sunday morning before kickoff at 11:30 AM EST! You can stream live or subscribe here.

For season-long fantasy football chatter, follow Ricky on Twitter @rickygangster!

The Fantasy Forecaster: Week 12 Start/Sit

Ricky was joined by fellow TSS writer Doug Moore and they discussed their Must Start/Must Sit for week 12.

Here is the short version of the show just telling who we picked.

You can also subscribe/download on iTunes here. Leave a rating, don’t be shy!

Make sure to follow Ricky (@rickygangster) and Doug (@DMM0822) on Twitter!

The guys will be back next week (November 25th)! Get your questions in on Twitter using the #TSS tag.

NFL Pick ‘Em; Bovada Bets for Week 11

Over the course of the last two football seasons I have played with some pocket change on Bovada.lv. It’s a website where you can bet on the lines of NFL games to MLB games to The Oscars (seriously). Over time I have had a lot of fun making bets. I usually partake in betting on straight lines, but I’ve also been known to get involved in other kinds, including sweetheart teasers.

What is a sweetheart teaser?

A sweetheart teaser for the most part plays out the same way as a regular teaser, except a sweetheart gives the bettors even more points. You can shift the line by 10 to 13 points in football (that’s nearly two touchdowns). There are a couple of differences. While regular teasers can include up to 10 teams, a sweetheart can include only three or four teams. Also, if any of your selections push on a sweetheart, you lose the entire bet.

Also, check out this link to gain a better understanding of the NFL spread betting.

As you can see, sometimes the gamble can be quite large when betting a teaser. Who doesn’t like a good risk once in a while? From this week forward, I am going to outline some of the bets I love, hate and my sweetheart teaser of the week!

Week 10 Recap:

Saints -6: Seriously the Saints go ahead with less than 2 minutes to go in the 4th and I’m ready to jump for joy as my sweetheart teaser is going to be 2 for 2! And them boom, Colin Kaepernick completes a 50-yard pass to Michael Crabtree, setting up the game-tying field goal. After that, the rest was history. I always bet the Saints at home, ugh.

Ravens -10: I won’t lie, I was a little nervous about this game and wasn’t sure we would get the cover. A late touchdown secured this bet though, making me a happy camper.

Steelers – 6: I talked this up all week everywhere! Trap game. I loved the Jets getting 6 points against a hot Steelers team. The masses have short attention spans. Recency bias, anyone? Sure, Pittsburgh had been on fire over the past couple of weeks, but they have been bad against teams with records below .500. The Jets actually ended up winning outright.

Sweetheart Teaser: The Jets did their part in this and the rest was just a disaster. The Saints blew it and the Panthers got murdered! Very sad day for the teaser.

Overall, I was 2-1 in the matchups but my teaser fell down for the week.

Week 11 is upon us and there are some very interesting matchups. Let’s dive right in; cannonball!

Week 11 bets I love:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +7 (-105)

Can someone please explain to me how the Washington Redskins are favorites by 7 points against anyone in the National Football League? That makes no sense and I am going to pounce on this game. I really don’t think Tampa is as bad as their record would tell us. This is what I like to call an easy money bet.

Cincinnati Bengals +7 1/2 (-115)

When the Bengals lose, they really lose. In their 3 losses, they’ve been outscored 84-20. Yikes! Still, a 7 and a half point spread is enticing. The orange and black have some fast, talented players, meaning the Saints’ 24th ranked pass defense will be on notice. This spread is too high in favor of the home team.

Week 11 bets I’m Avoiding:

San Diego Chargers -10 1/2

This bet will probably see a lot of action in favor of the Chargers but I think this Raiders team is going to play spoiler down the stretch. Oakland is 3 and 1 against the spread on the road this season. This smells like a trap game to me.

  • 49ers – 4 1/2
  • Giants + 4 1/2

I don’t like either side of this bet. Either team could come out and win. It’s hard to know which 49ers team will show up any given Sunday and the Giants have just had an odd season. Steer clear.

My sweetheart teaser lock of the week:

123

So you already know about my love for the Raiders this week, so let me talk about the other 2 bets on this week’s sweetheart teaser.

  • The Seahawks +7 (on the road against the Chiefs): This game really is a toss up. Kansas City could very well come out and beat this Seahawks team, I just don’t think it will be by a touchdown. Seattle just isn’t as good as they were a season go (obviously). Easy teaser here.
  • New England Patriots +9 (on the road against the Colts): The Colts are a very good football team but I think they are a bit overrated on the defensive side of the ball. Give Belichick and the Patriots two weeks to prepare for this Colts team and I will take 9 points wherever the game is. No chance the Pats fail to cover.

That’s a very confident teaser for me this week. So lets roll the dice and make some money, folks.

Ricky is a co-owner, fantasy sports writer and gambling man at The Sports Script. Follow him on the Twitter machine @rickygangster!

NFL Pick ‘Em; Bovada Bets for Week 10

Over the course of the last two football seasons I have been playing with some pocket change on Bovada.lv. It’s a website where you can bet on the lines of NFL games to MLB games to The Oscars (seriously). Over time I have had a lot of fun making bets. I usually partake in betting on straight lines, but I’ve also been known to get involved in other kinds, including sweetheart teasers.

What is a sweetheart teaser?

A sweetheart teaser for the most part plays out the same way as a regular teaser, except a sweetheart gives the bettors even more points. You can shift the line by 10 to 13 points in football (that’s nearly two touchdowns). There are a couple of differences. While regular teasers can include up to 10 teams, a sweetheart can include only three or four teams. Also, if any of your selections push on a sweetheart, you lose the entire bet.

Also, check out this link to gain a better understanding of the NFL spread betting.

As you can see, sometimes the gamble can be quite large when betting a teaser. Who doesn’t like a good risk once in a while? From this week forward, I am going to outline some of the bets I love, hate and my sweetheart teaser of the week!

As of this writing there were no lines on the Dolphins/Lions, Giants/Seahawks or Cowboys/Jaguars games on Bovada. I wouldn’t have used any of these in my sweetheart teaser anyway.

Week 10 bets I love:

  • San Francisco 49ers +6 (-110)
  • New Orleans Saints -6 (-110)

These are easily my favorite betsof the week and I will find multiple ways to include them inside a teaser and some other bets. The Saints are good at home, we all know the history. Couple that with the 49ers not being on the same page right now and we have a recipe for success (In order to win a $1 back you have to bet $1.05 but the line is soft enough for me that I wouldn’t hesitate laying some serious money on this game).

  • Tennessee Titans +10
  • Baltimore Ravens -10

10 points can be scary and I rarely bet on lines this high but this one is too sweet not to lock down. The Ravens are 9-3 at home over the past two seasons and are coming off a lopsided loss to the Steelers, this is a team that’s going to want to come out and make a statement and I feel really bad for the Titans this weekend. Tennessee hasn’t done much right this season (Of course bet with caution but I really think that Ravens win this game by 20).

Week 10 bets I hate:

Pittsburgh Steelers -6
New York Jets +6

Ricky are you trying to tell us that you don’t like a team that has a quarterback who’s thrown for 12 touchdowns over the past 2 games and an offense that has scored 40+ points in back to back games? Yep. I hate this bet this week, it’s a total trap game and a trap bet. Keep in mind this is the same Steelers team that struggled on the road against the Jaguars, got demolished in Baltimore and Cleveland and lost to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

My sweetheart teaser lock of the week:

bet

As you can see I am taking full advantage of the Saints dropping from a -6 to a pick ’em against the 49ers, which means they just need to win the game and we are covered.

I really think Mark Sanchez and the Eagles win Monday night but the odds of them beating the Panthers by 13 points is not good. The Eagles have two blowouts this year (both came at home) but they were against the Jaguars (who were actually up 17 at the half) and the Giants. I like the Panthers to cover the 13 points with ease.

Lastly, I spoke of the Steelers/Jets game being a trap game for the Steelers and that’s at the -6, but give me 12 points and I love the Jets this weekend.

After playing around with various teasers this is easily my favorite. At +160, you can bet $5 and win $8 and so forth with the more you bet. One thing is for sure though, you will be thanking me Monday Night when the game is over.

Ricky is a co-owner, fantasy sports writer and gambling man at The Sports Script. Follow him on the Twitter machine @rickygangster!

The Fantasy Forecaster: Week 8 Start/Sit

Ricky was joined by fellow TSS writer Doug Moore and they discussed their Must Start/Must Sit for week 8.

Here is the short version of the show just telling who we picked.

You can also subscribe/download on iTunes here. Leave a rating, don’t be shy!

Make sure to follow Ricky (@rickygangster) and Doug (@DMM0822) on Twitter!

The guys will be back next week (October 29nd)! Get your questions in on Twitter using the #TSS tag.