Looks like I cooled off a bit – at least for my Fantasy Forecaster suggestions. Not a good thing as we head to the playoffs. This was my first sub-60% week since week 8 for the pod. On the bright side, the picks you come here for were 7-2, upping my season long success rate to 71%. The moral of the story, I must get flustered by Doug and Payton on the podcast and it throws me off.
My total score for the week was 14-10-2 (60%). Not too bad but now that playoffs are here, every call is magnified and I have to do better than that. After all, you guys are coming here for expert picks and 60% isn’t going to cut it.
Week 14 results from the Sunday pod:
|Jurrell Casey||1/3/0; 3 QB Hits||Start||Loss||IDP|
|Isaiah Crowell||14-54 yds; TD||Start||Win||Offense|
|Rashad Jennings||2-5yds/1-17 yds||Diminished Roll||N/A||Offense|
|Jordan Cameron||4-41yds||Start – if Active||Tie||Offense|
|Jordan Reed||3-25 yds||Start||Loss||Offense|
|Delanie Walker||4-27 yds||Start||Loss||Offense|
|Donte Moncrief||3-33 yds||Flex Play||Tie||Offense|
|Jonathan Stewart||20-155; TD||Start||Win||Offense|
Week 14 Summary: 7-8-2 (47%)
Season Summary (since week 8): 59-29-2 (67%)
*IDP Stats are listed as: Solos/Assists/Sacks; PD = Pass Defensed; FR = Fumble Recover; INT = Interception
Week 14 Results from this column:
|JJ Watt||4/0/3/PD||Start (2 sacks/ 4 solo min)||Y||IDP|
Week 14: 7-2 (78%)
Season Summary: 66-27 (71%)
Week 15 injuries of note:
- Chandler Jones (NE DL): Jones has practiced in a limited fashion this week. I don’t have much confidence in him having an impact until I see him going full speed in a game situation. I would hold him out until he gets into game action. If you are in a dynasty league and he is on the waiver wire for some reason I would pick him up as a stash for next year. He is still a top 10 DL when healthy.
- Haloti Ngata (BAL DL): Ngata was suspended 4 games for substance abuse. Time to drop him as he is done for the year. This is probably a bigger deal to Baltimore’s team defense then to fantasy owners.
- Shariff Floyd (MIN DL): Floyd started the game last week only to re-injure his knee and have to leave the contest. I would target him as a buy-low in dynasty leagues as he should be fine for next year. The way the Vikings defense improved under Mike Zimmer I would expect big things from Floyd in 2016. For this year he is too risky to start unless he gets a clean bill of health.
- Muhammad Wilkerson (NYJ DL): Wilkerson is still suffering from his turf toe injury. However, he is trying to practice with a special shoe. I wouldn’t even think about using him at this stage of the season until he is healthy and shows he still has the same power and explosion.
- Gerald McCoy (TB DL): McCoy briefly left the game last week with a knee injury. He returned to the game and it’s being reported as only a bruise. He should be good to go.
- Jadeveon Clowney (HOU LB): Well, the second opinion didn’t come back good. The Texans placed Clowney on IR, ending his season. The more important news (especially in dynasty leagues) is that he is going in for microfracture surgery on his troublesome knee and will be out for at least 9 months. The worry here is that he will lose that explosion off the line which was his best attribute. If I have him in dynasty I might look to see if there is another owner out there willing to take the risk as he is most likely 2 years away from getting back to form, if ever.
- Vontaze Burfict (CIN LB): He was placed on IR due to his knee issue. That means that Vinny Rey should continue to be an effective LB 2 or 3 for the remainder of the year. This was a very disappointing year for anyone that drafted Burfict expecting a 2013 repeat. At this point I would stay away from him in any dynasty league due to the myriad of injuries he has had. The biggest of which were repeat concussions earlier in the year.
- NaVorro Bowman (SF LB): Bowman was activated from the PUP list but I wouldn’t even bother with him. Chris Borland has been phenomenal and the rest of the 49ers have given up on the year. I don’t see management putting Bowman out there this year and if they do I wouldn’t expect him to do much. He might be a low risk dynasty pickup as he will have had 18 months of recovery time from his surgery at the start of next year.
- Lavonte David (TB LB): David suffered what appeared to be a concussion late in Sunday’s game. He will have to pass the concussion protocol so pay attention to the reports as the week goes along. If he is active he has to be in your lineup. Either way Danny Lansanah has been impressive over the last few weeks and should be owned.
- Antonio Cromartie (ARI DB): Cromartie left last week’s game with an ankle injury but reports are that he is expected to play Thursday night against the Rams. I wouldn’t expect a big game out of Cromartie either way.
- Kenny Vaccaro (NO DB): Vaccaro was benched after a horrendous year. He is safe to drop in re-draft leagues but you may want to hold on in dynasty leagues to see what happens in the off-season. He is a highly touted prospect that was a top draft pick so he has some talent.
- Louis Delmas (MIA DB): Delmas suffered a torn ACL and has been placed on IR. He is done for the season.
Who to play (or not):
- Ziggy Ansah (DET DL): The Vikings are allowing pressure on almost 20% of their passes as well as sacks on about 10% of their drop backs. Ansah is in line for a huge day as Minnesota has given up 6 sacks over the last 2 weeks.
- Cameron Jordan (NO DL): Surprisingly, the Bears didn’t give up a sack last week in that garbage time bonanza. However, that was against the Cowboys who only have 19 total sacks on the year. There will be sacks to be had this week and I expect Jordan to feast.
- Charles Johnson (CAR DL): Tampa Bay gave up 6 sacks last week and now Johnson comes to town. He was a held off the stat sheet last week against the Saints but they don’t give up sacks. He will eat, as he has a sack in every other game since week 7.
- Damontre Moore (NYG DL): He is more of a dynasty stash but does have some upside this week. Moore had 2 sacks last week against the lowly Titans as he played in 78% of the snaps. He is starting to get playing time and that is resulting in him getting to the quarterback. He gets Washington this week so he should have some chances. Tough to start a guy like this in a playoff game but if he is available pick him up as a dynasty stash for next year at the very least.
- Rolando McClain (DAL LB): Last week against the Eagles he had a decent game with 6 solos. He is a high floor option this week as there will be plenty of opportunities.
- Curtis Lofton (NO LB): Coming off an 11/6/0/FR game last week I expect another big showing on Monday night against the Bears. Lofton hasn’t been below 6 solo tackles since week 9 and in that game he had 6 assists so he was around the ball. Get him in your lineup this week.
- Elvis Dumervil (BAL LB): Dumervil is coming off a 3.5 sack game against the Chargers and now he gets Jacksonville. He is a must-start in big play leagues but I see another big game this week with at least one sack. Get him in the lineup.
- Ryan Mundy (CHI DB): Mundy has had no less than 6 solo tackles in 4 of the last 5 games. The one game he didn’t he had an interception against the Vikings. I think he will be tested often against the Saints and he will continue his tackle streak and high floor numbers.
- Barry Church (DAL DB): I am following my own rule of using safeties against the Eagles. Church should get lots of opportunities and take advantage. In their last game against the Eagles he put up 9/2/0/PD so expect a lot of the same in week 15.
- Antrel Rolle (NYG DB): Last time out against Washington, Rolle had 1 tackle and an interception. I am going to say sit him this week as I don’t think he will be in line for much in this game.
Photo cred: http://goo.gl/TZvGrm
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