Fantasy Football Boom or Bust: Week 15

Randall Cobb
Randall Cobb has a tough matchup this week against Buffalo

Week 15 officially means all fantasy football playoffs have started. This week was particularly hard for me to find bust players because there are so many great matchups and if you are in the playoffs it probably means your lineup has been pretty consistent. For quarterbacks this week I found two guys who are within the top 12 for points that I think will fail to live up to expectations. If I am going to tell you two guys that are going to be outside the top 12 I need to tell you two guys that will make their way in this week. For running back and wide receiver I found players that are usually wavering on the flex position or guys that have been inconsistent this year. Even in a tough week there are players that you definitely want to play and ones that I wouldn’t touch with a 10-foot pole.

Good luck! And remember, if you lose it’s your fault but if you win it’s mine!

Boom:

Kyle Orton: For those of you who own Cam Newton or Colin Kaepernick and need to stream a quarterback this week, Kyle Orton is your man. He is coming off a performance where he threw for 355 yards and a touchdown in a game where they trailed Denver from the start. I suspect the Bills will be in a very similar situation this week when they host the red-hot Packers. Orton will also benefit from the sub-par Packer pass defense that has allowed quarterbacks to throw for multiple touchdowns 9 times this year.

Matthew Stafford: Calvin Johnson has been healthy for 8 games this year and in 4 of those contests Stafford has thrown for at least 290 yards and 2 touchdowns. The common denominator? Both of those games have come over the last 2 weeks. On paper this is not a great matchup for Stafford as the Vikings have held 7 quarterbacks to single-digit fantasy performances in 2014. Look for Stafford to have a rebound game at home with his favorite target in the lineup.

Mark Ingram: The Saints have won 3 of their last 8 games, woof! In those wins Ingram’s stat lines read as follows; 24 carries 172 yards 1 TD, 30 carries 100 yards 2 TD, 23 carries 122 yards 0 TD. If the Saints want to win the worst division in the NFL they should follow their running back rather than their struggling aerial attack.

Chris Ivory/Chris Johnson: The Titans have allowed opposing teams to run for over 97 yards in 11 games. They’ve also given up a touchdown on the ground in 9 of their 13 contests. Ivory and Johnson have combined for 65 carries over the last 2 weeks and should continue to pile up the touches in week 15. Both are solid flex options in week 15. Oh yeah, and this is a revenge game for the former CJ2K.

Isaiah Crowell: Cleveland backs ran for 169 yards and 3 touchdowns in their first meeting with the Bengals. This week, Crowell should benefit from Johnny Manziel’s dual-threat abilities, which should open up the Bengal defense some. Even in a shared backfield, Crowell should still see a healthy carry count. Cincinnati was shredded last week against the Steelers and Le’Veon Bell, allowing 194 yards and 2 scores on the ground.

Sammy Watkins: After 4-straight disappointing performances, Watkins had a huge week 14, catching 7 balls for 127 yards. After watching the Monday night game it became very evident to me that the Packers’ defense is below average. They have allowed 10 touchdown to receivers over the last 4 games and are fortunate to have such a great offense that forces the opposing offense into catchup mode. The Bills should try and control the ball against the Pack to keep it close, but if they are not able to, get ready for some big garbage time points out of Watkins.

Roddy White: This pick is somewhat dependent on Julio Jones’ status. If the burner doesn’t play, White becomes a must start. Even if Jones does suit up I still think Roddy could have a solid game. In each of their last 6 games the Steelers have allowed at least 1 touchdown catch to receivers and are allowing 205 yards per game to opposing wideout corps. The Steelers are also very susceptible to the big play giving up pass plays of 69, 80 and 81 yards over their last 3.

Bust:

Russell Wilson: Two weeks ago in San Francisco, Wilson rushed for 35 yards and passed for 236. As bad as the 49ers’ offense has been their defense has still preformed as a top-5 unit, holding opposing quarterbacks to under 200 yards passing 5 times this season.

Joe Flacco: The Jacksonville pass defense has been surprisingly solid over their last 3 games. During that time, they have surrendered only 2 scores and just 211 yards through the air per contest. On the contrary, Flacco has not put up big numbers recently considering the success of his team. He hasn’t thrown more than 2 touchdowns in a game since week 6 and has only broken the 300 yard mark 3 time all years. Baltimore will have to continue their success by running the ball and playing sound defense.

Frank Gore: In his previous meeting with Seattle, Gore rushed 10 times for 28 yards. The Seahawks defense is holding opposing teams to an average of 26 rushing yards per game over the last 3. Avoid Gore against a defense that seems to be turning their swag back on.

Lamar Miller: Miller hasn’t eclipsed 100 total yards in any game since week 3. He also has only 6 touchdowns on the year and has received more than 15 carries just once. With New England almost completely shutting down opposing run games over the last month plus, I’m sitting Miller if I can.

DeSean Jackson: Jackson was held to 1 catch for 9 yards in his earlier meeting with the Giants. Since that time, the Redskins quarterback situation has become a complete mess and the Giants pass defense has improved. The Giants haven’t allowed a receiving corps to break 200 yards since week 3. With the Redskins being what they are and Jackson not being 100% healthy don’t expect that streak to end in week 15.

Randall Cobb: With it being the playoffs it would be pretty hard to bench Cobb, but maybe you own a couple other receivers with better matchups. Cobb has only broken 100 yards and scored a touchdown once in his last 5 games. If you own him, you probably have to start him. Just know that Buffalo has a strong pass defense and a big day out of Cobb is probably unlikely.

Photo cred: http://goo.gl/rxIJnt

Check out FantasyRundown.com for all of our latest articles and other great fantasy content.

Payton is the newest fantasy football contributor to The Sports Script. Be on the lookout for more of his work in the coming weeks and follow him on Twitter @PaySand!

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Eight In The Box: IDP Waiver Wire Week 14

Eric Weddle
Weddle could put up some big numbers against New England this week

So let’s update the standings for my predictions from Week 13. I was lucky enough to get to participate in the Tuesday Night edition of the Fantasy Forecaster providing my offensive start and sit recommendations for the week so I have broken those out into their own section as well. This allows you to double check my results easily to make sure I am not making this stuff up!

It looks like I had another good week, going a combined 22-8-1. That’s a nice 72.5% success rate. If I can keep this level of success up, it might be time to take a trip to Vegas!

Week 13 results from the podcast:

Player Stats Start/Sit Result Type
Matthew Stafford 390 yds; 2 TD Start Win Offense
Cam Newton 194 yds; 49 rush; 1 TD Sit Win Offense
Rashad Jennings 91 yds; 3 yds; 2 TD Start Win Offense
Marshawn Lynch 104 yds; 0 TD Sit Loss Offense
Kenny Stills 5-162yds; 1 TD Start Win Offense
Julio Jones 10-189yds; 1 TD Sit Loss Offense
Larry Donnell 5-55yds; 0 TD Start Push Offense
Buffalo Team D 2 sack/3TO/TD/10 PA Start Win Offense
Green Bay Team D 1 sack/0 TO/21 PA Sit Win Offense

 Week 13 summary: 6-2-1 (72%)

 Week 13 results from the Sunday pod:

Player Stats Start/Sit Result Type
Calais Campbell 3/1/0 Start Win IDP
Charles Johnson 4/0/1/FR Start Win IDP
Robert Quinn 5/0/3 Sit Loss IDP
Justin Tuck 2/0/1/PD Start Win IDP
Telvin Smith 8/2/0 Start Win IDP
Sio Moore 6/1/0 Start Win IDP
Lawrence Timmons 3/2/0 Start Loss IDP
St Louis Team D 6 sacks/ 5TO/ TD/ 0 PA Start Win Offense
Andre Ellington 12 yds; injured Start Loss Offense
Odell Beckham vs Julio Jones Julio>ODB ODB Loss Offense
Jordan Reed 9-123 yds Start Win Offense
Danny Lansanah 13/1/0 Start Win IDP
Cameron Wake 2/1/1 Start Win IDP
Olivier Vernon 4/3/0 Start Loss IDP
Jelani Jenkins 8/8/0 Start Win IDP

 Week 13 summary: 10-5 (67%)

Season summary (since week 8): 52-21 (71%)

*IDP stats are listed as: solos/assists/sacks; PD = pass defensed, FR = fumble recover, INT = interception

Week 13 Results from this column:

Player Stats Start/Sit Result Type
Cameron Wake 2/1/1 Start Win IDP
Jared Allen 4/0/2/FR Start Win IDP
Everson Griffen 3/2/2/TD Start Win IDP
Jelani Jenkins 8/8/0 Start Win IDP
Mychal Kendricks 6/1/0 Start Win IDP
Von Miller 2/1/1.5 Start Win IDP
Ha Ha Clinton-Dix 3/3/0/PD Start Loss IDP
Barry Church 9/2/0/PD Start Win IDP
James Ihedigbo 1/0/0/INT/PD Start Win IDP

 Week 13: 8-1 (88%)

Season summary (weeks 10-13): 23-9 (72%); still compiling for full season

IDP Injuries of note:

  • Muhammad Wilkerson (NYJ DL): Wilkerson missed week 13 with a toe injury and is considered week to week. He was in a walking boot last week and is now out of it, so that is progress. Check back later in the week to see his status.
  • Brett Keisel (PIT DL): Keisel tore his triceps on Sunday against the Saints and has been placed on IR. He is done for the year. This will be a much bigger blow to the Steeler defense than it will be to any fake gamers.
  • Robert Ayers (NYG DL): Ayers suffered a torn pectoral against the Jaguars and will be placed on IR. He was mostly depth for IDP leaguers so this probably isn’t a huge loss to anyone.
  • Chandler Jones (NE DL): Jones is rumored to be  ready to roll in week 14 in pass-rush situations. I would wait a week and see what happens before getting him in your lineup.
  • Mathias Kiwanuka (NYG LB): Kiwanuka was placed on IR with a knee injury. He has always had a lot of promise with his size and speed but has never really lived up to that billing. It’s probably safe to not worry about him at all in the future.
  • Ryan Shazier (PIT LB): Shazier did not play in week 13 as discussed but should be back this week. I would stay away as you approach the fantasy playoffs since we have no idea what he may produce.
  • Jadeveon Clowney (HOU LB): What a disappointing year for 2 of the top IDP rookie linebackers out there. This nagging knee injury has sapped most of Clowney’s explosion and speed in addition to keeping him out most of the season. He is currently seeking a second opinion and his season may be in jeopardy. I would still target him as a buy-low in dynasty leagues.
  • Vontae Davis (IND DB): Davis suffered a concussion and is in the league-mandated protocol. You know the drill. Check back later to make sure he is progressing as the week moves along.
  • Tyrann Mathieu (ARI DB): Mathieu suffered a broken and dislocated thumb that will require surgery. He is expected to miss at least the next 3 weeks. He is safe to drop in re-draft leagues as he likely won’t be back until week 17.
  • Antoine Cason (FA DB): Cason was waived by Carolina. He started off hot but quickly took a nose dive to the point of losing his job. This just goes to show you that the DB’s position is volatile and not worth spending on in the draft. If you stream as the season goes along and you can usually find some solid contributors.

Who to play (or not):

DL:

  • Ziggy Ansah (DET DL): Ansah has been playing well over the past few weeks even if the pressures haven’t turned into sacks. He only has 1 sack over the last 3 games. This week he gets the porous Tampa Bay offensive line, so expect a big day.
  • Demarcus Ware (DEN DL): Ware is one of my all-time favorites for sheer consistency. For a few years he was a solid sack a game and it was virtually that consistent. It was a great to have in a sack-heavy scoring league. He is basically following that again this year with  only 4 no-sack games. This week, he gets Buffalo who will be behind big and I say he notches another sack or 2.
  • JJ Watt (HOU DL): I know everyone is starting this guy. Well, I am only going to count this as a win if he has 2 or more sacks and 4 or more tackles. He is gonna put up a monster game.

LB:

  • Chad Greenway (MIN LB): Anthony Barr has killed Greenway’s IDP value this year but he currently has a gimpy knee. If Barr is out this week against the Jets I see Greenway putting up a big game. Watch the reports, and if Barr is a no go get Greenway in your lineup.
  • Bobby Wagner (SEA LB): Wagner seems to be healthy now and he gets the gold matchup against the Eagles. Start him with confidence and expect big tackle numbers.
  • Danny Lansanah (TB LB): Tampa gets a nice matchup with Detroit and after last week’s monster outing without Lavonte David in the lineup look for another big performance in week 14. If David is out start Lansanah.

DB:

  • Eric Weddle (SD DB): Going against the Patriots should lead to a bunch of opportunities for Weddle this week. For the DB, opportunity is key.
  • Jonathan Cyprian (JAC DB): Cyprian has been a solid source of tackles at defensive back as he has a low of 3 solo tackles this season. With the Texans coming to town he will have chances to come up and support on the run. It should lead to tackles.
  • Kam Chancellor (SEA DB): The old rule of play your safeties against the Eagles pertains here. There should be a lot of opportunities and I expect Chancellor will get his share.

Photo cred: http://goo.gl/vxoX8P

Check out FantasyRundown.com for all of our latest articles and other great fantasy content.

Shane Gallimore is a fantasy football contributor and co-host of the live Sunday edition of The Fantasy Forecaster for The Sports Script. Follow him on Twitter @Gally4!

The Fantasy Forecaster: Week 7 Start/Sit

Ricky was joined by fellow TSS writer Doug Moore and they discussed their Must Start/Must Sit for week 7

Here is the short version of the show just telling who we picked.

You can also subscribe/download on iTunes here. Leave a rating, don’t be shy!

Make sure to follow Ricky (@rickygangster) and Doug (@DMM0822) on Twitter!

The guys will be back next week (October 22nd)! Get your questions in on Twitter using the #TSS tag.

The Fantasy Forecaster: Week 6 Start/Sit

Ricky was joined by fellow TSS writer Doug Moore and they discussed their Must Start/Must Sit for week 6

Here is the short version of the show just telling who we picked.

You can also subscribe/download on iTunes here. Leave a rating, don’t be shy!

Make sure to follow Ricky (@rickygangster) and Doug (@DMM0822) on Twitter!

The guys will be back next week (September 30)! Get your questions in on Twitter using the #TSS tag.

The Fantasy Forecaster: Week 5 Start/Sit

Ricky was joined by fellow TSS writer Doug Moore and they discussed their Must Start/Must Sit for week 4

Here is the short version of the show just telling who we picked.

You can also subscribe/download on iTunes here. Leave a rating, don’t be shy!

Make sure to follow Ricky (@rickygangster) and Doug (@DMM0822) on Twitter!

The guys will be back next week (September 30)! Get your questions in on Twitter using the #TSS tag.

Ricky’s Week 4 Fantasy Review

I am back with another edition of the Ricky’s Review. I am going to breakdown the week that it was in the world of Fantasy Football and what I brought to the table as far as my 5-Pack Fantasy Sleepers as well as my Must Start/Must Sit pick for the week. So this will be either an article ranting and raving about how awesome I am or me talking about how I enjoyed a long, emotional shower cry Sunday Night.

Week 4 was really insane. Forte broke out of his slump, McCoy had his 2nd straight single-digit performance, Eli Manning looked like Peyton and Matt Asiata scored not once, not twice but three times this week. Speaking of McCoy, could someone wake him up please, I have way too much stock in him to be treading water week to week.

Alright lets dive right into my 5-Pack Fantasy Sleepers for Week 4

Tom Brady – Ummmmmmmmm yeah. Let’s not talk about this one folks.

Matt Asiata – 100 total yards and 3 TDs – My man Asiata just killed it this week!!!!! Although his job is probably in jeopardy with how good McKinnon looked but still LOVED this matchup and going forward I think I like anyone who is rushing against that Falcons D.

Jeremy Maclin – 5 catches 68 yards – Can we get a bonus for great catches? The price just didn’t end up being worth it this week.

Owen Daniels – 4 catches 43 yards – This was pretty solid value. He was one of the cheapest TE’s and unless you spent big on Graham, he wasn’t awful.

Lions D – 17 points 2 turnovers 2 sacks – They weren’t fantastic but they did well enough to be a solid play for me this week.

Overall: Asiata provided amazing value and the Lions D was good as well but other than that just a crap shoot of MEHness this week.

Now let’s dig into my Start/Sit Hit’s and Misses

I breakdown my list into 3 sections, Hits (Guys who made me look good), Misses (Guys who made me look bad) & the Meh Group (They weren’t hits but they surely didn’t miss).

Must Start Hit’s

Philip Rivers – 377 yards and 3 TDs – He came in and did his job like he should have. Great play this week.

Ahmad Bradshaw – 52 yards and a TD – That makes it 3 straight games with a receiving TD. The TD really saved what would’ve been a lackluster day for him.

Charges D – 14 points 3 sacks 3 turnovers – Job well done.

Must Start Misses

Antonio Gates – 3 catches 30 yards – I guess you can’t win them all in this matchup. Gates was 5th in the pecking order in targets.

The Meh Group

Michael Crabtree – 5 catches 43 yards – 9 PPR points? 4.3 standard points? MEH!

Must Sit Hit’s

Joquie Bell/ Reggie Bush – 104 total yards – This was a real no brainer for me. Jets run D is legit and proved so but shutting both of these guys down.

Greg Olsen – 2 catches 30 yards – I hated this matchup for him this week and even late he really couldn’t get it going when the team was down big.

Panthers D – 38 points 0 turnovers 0 sacks – This is not the same defense it was last year.

Must Sit Misses

Vincent Jackson – 3 catches 32 yards 1 TD – NOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!! A TD catch with 7 seconds left really ruined this for me.

 

Overall: Overall it was a pretty good week. Gates/Crabs/Vjax were my only enemies this week, outside of that looks like everyone did their part for me.

Follow me on Twitter @Rickygangster!

 

The Fantasy Forecaster: Week 4 Start/Sit

Ricky was joined by fellow TSS writer Doug Moore and they discussed their Must Start/Must Sit for week 4

Here is the short version of the show just telling who we picked.

 Here is the show in full with explanation of why we picked each guy.

You can also subscribe/download on iTunes here. Leave a rating, don’t be shy!

Make sure to follow Ricky (@rickygangster) and Doug (@DMM0822) on Twitter!

The guys will be back next week (September 30)! Get your questions in on Twitter using the #TSS tag.

Ricky’s Week 3 Fantasy Review

I am back with another edition of the Ricky’s Review. I am going to breakdown the week that it was in the world of Fantasy Football and what I brought to the table as far as my 5-Pack Fantasy Sleepers as well as my Must Start/Must Sit pick for the week. So this will be either an article ranting and raving about how awesome I am or me talking about how I enjoyed a long, emotional shower cry Sunday Night.

Week 3 was insane, we saw Andy Dalton catch a TD pass, Who needs Jamaal Charles when you have Kniles Davis and Joe McKnight (who caught 2 TD passes), Bridgewater/Bortles  made to their 1st NFL snaps, Eli Manning didn’t throw an interception and Lorenzo Taliaferro looks like he might take that Ravens RB job by storm.

Alright lets dive right into my 5-Pack Fantasy Sleepers for Week 3

QB – Kirk Cousins – (30/48 427 yards & 3 TDs) – He had quite the sexy matchup and really came through this week and took advantage of it. Cousins has looked amazing and made some great decisions with the football, I love him on a week to week basis as Jay Gruden likes to throw the ball.

RB – Ahmad Bradshaw – (9 carries 65 yards, 2 catches 18 yards & a TD) – Bradshaw stepped up and performed just as I hoped, he caught his 3rd TD in 2 games and totaled 83 yards.

WR – Greg Jennings – (5 catches 70 yards) – I wasn’t expecting Jennings to exactly light it up but for the price you would’ve paid for him, you would’ve gotten some real good value.

TE – Niles Paul – (6 catches 68 yards) – Niles saw 9 more targets this week catching 6 of them for 68 yards, while he didn’t find the endzone, he still provided great value this week.

D – Cowboys D – Talk about being saved by a Pick-6. This looked horrible for about 3 & half quarters but they provided a late INT that was returned for a TD, which was enough to make them a hit for me this week.

Overall – I had a pretty solid week, everyone provided great value with Cousins/Bradshaw really knocking it out of the park.

Now let’s dig into my Start/Sit Hit’s and Misses

I breakdown my list into 3 sections, Hits (Guys who made me look good), Misses (Guys who made me look bad) & the Meh Group (They weren’t hits but they surely didn’t miss).

Must Start Hit’s

Bobby Rainey – (11 carries 41 yards, 7 catches 64 yards, 2 fumbles) – While in PPR leagues he provided a nice value even after the 2 fumbles but if you started him in standard, you were really let down big time. So I’ll take the Hit in PPR leagues but a Miss in Standards on this one.

Ahmad Bradshaw – (9 carries 65 yards, 2 catches 18 yards & a TD) – See above

Alshon Jeffery – Add after Monday night

Bengals D – (7 points, 2 INT & 2 sacks) – Hit this one right on the head folks. Titans aren’t a very good football team and the Bengals probably have one of the best defenses in football.

Must Start Misses

Matthew Stafford – (246 yards & 2 INT) – Talking about really annoying, this was a great matchup for Stafford and he just completely was garbage in this game.

Must Start Meh

Bobby Rainey – See Above

Delaine Walker – (4 catches 54 yards) – Walker caught 4 of his 7 targets but couldn’t find the endzone for the first time this year. I thought we would get atleast a garbage time TD from him but we weren’t rewarded with that either. The Bengals D is legit folks.

Must Sit Hit’s

Andy Dalton – (15/23, 169 yards & a INT) – I feel like just for the receiving TD he shouldn’t be on this list but yeah the Titans did what I thought they would and held Dalton in check.

Martellous Bennett –

Must Sit Misses

Lamar Miller – (15 carries 108 yards & 4 catches 24 yards) – Yep I was wrong, next.

Kelvin Benjamin – (8 catches 115 yards & a TD) – This shocked me. I just didn’t see this coming out of him this week.

Colts D – (17 points, 4 sacks, 2 INT & 1 TD) – I was really expecting a closer matchup between the two teams. The 17 points didn’t come until garbage time, the Jags are just bad at football but Bortles seems like he is going to be fun to watch.

Overall: My Must starts looked pretty good minus Stafford but my Must Sits were TERRIBLE choices this week. Miller just exploded this week and I just didn’t see that coming at all. Oh well, you win some and you lose some.

Follow me on Twitter @Rickygangster!

 

The Fantasy Forecaster: Week 3 Start/Sit

Ricky was joined by fellow TSS writer Doug Moore and they discussed their Must Start/Must Sit for week 3

Here is the short version of the show just telling who we picked.

 Here is the show in full with explanation of why we picked each guy.

You can also subscribe/download on iTunes here. Leave a rating, don’t be shy!

Make sure to follow Ricky (@rickygangster) and Doug (@DMM0822) on Twitter!

The guys will be back next week (September 23)! Get your questions in on Twitter using the #TSS tag.