Boom:
Colin Kaepernick: Last week the Giants let Russell Wilson run for 102 yards and prior to last week they had given up 9 passing touchdowns over their last 3 games. I expect the 49ers to replicate the Seahawks zone read running scheme, which should reproduce the Colin Kaepernick we fell in love with 2 years ago.
Le’Veon Bell: Bell is usually a must start but he has not surpassed 100 yards on the ground since week 3 and he’s only produced 56 yards over the last 2 weeks. He has a great matchup this week against a Titans team giving up an average of 127 yards on the ground per game. After last week the Titans defense has now allowed 10 rushing touchdowns on the year. Look for Bell to have a bounce-back game for the Steelers in prime time.
Ryan Mathews: The Chargers could not be more thankful for Mathews’ return after Branden Oliver’s dismal performance over the last three weeks (3 YPC, 0 touchdowns). Opposing running backs have reached the end zone 9 times and have run for over 100 yards 7 times against the Raiders. Mathews should have a memorable return against the team he ran for 99 yards and a touchdown against a season ago.
Alfred Morris: With RGIII under center, Morris is averaging 91 yards a game and has accumulated 19 touchdowns. In 11 games without Griffin, he’s averaged 69 yards, compiling 7 scores. Morris has been the biggest beneficiary of Griffin’s ability to run the zone read offense. Be ready for a big day from Freddy against a Tampa Bay defense that has allowed 80+ rushing yards to running backs in 8 games this season.
Cordarrelle Patterson: Did anybody else watch last Sunday’s game? In case you didn’t, the Bears defense is awful. They have now allowed 106 points and 11 passing touchdowns over the last 2 weeks! I know Patterson doesn’t have a quarterback even close to the caliber of Rodgers or Brady, but the Vikings should find a way to get this dynamic play-maker the ball in week 11.
Pierre Garcon: If Pierre Garcon can’t produce big numbers in this game he should be dropped in all shallow leagues. He has now had a bye week to regain his chemistry with Griffin and they are playing the league’s worst pass defense. The Bucs have allowed performances of 63, 55, 33 and 32 fantasy points (ESPN) by wide receiving corps this year. Unless DeSean Jackson just goes absolutely nuts, Garcon is in line for a big game.
Dwayne Allen: The Pats have allowed tight ends to score in each of the last 3 weeks and the Hoody loves to make teams beat them with their secondary options. With the Patriots’ defense focusing on Hilton and Bradshaw, watch for Allen to be Luck’s number 1 option.
Browns D/ST: I think it is a fantasy football rule to start a defense playing against a quarterback in his first start, especially if that defense is coming off a week where they made Andy Dalton look like well, Andy Dalton. The Browns have forced 12 turnovers in the last 4 games which they will add to this week against the Texans. I think this game will be a low-scoring affair, making the Texans defense a good play as well.
Chiefs D/ST: 3 words; Arrowhead in November. The Chiefs have surrendered just 31 points total in their last 3 home games and the Seahawks’ offense has been stuck in struggle city. The Chiefs defense is a sneaky play this week against the defending champs.
Bust:
Russell Wilson: The Seahawks passing game has really struggled of late and I don’t see it getting any better when they travel to Arrowhead. Wilson has not surpassed 200 yards passing in any of his last 3 games and has only thrown for 1 score during that time. His ability to run makes him very hard to bench, but keep in mind that the Chiefs have only allowed 20+ fantasy points (ESPN) to one QB this year and his name is Peyton Manning.
Mark Sanchez: There are 2 things to look at here. First, Green Bay’s pass defense has been above average this year, allowing only one 300-yard and 20+ point (ESPN) passer; Drew Brees. Their defense has been especially good at home, surrendering only 4 touchdowns through the air in their last 4 games. The second thing to look at is the overreaction to Sanchez in the Eagles great team win last Monday night. The Eagles were fortunate enough to force 3 turnovers in Panther territory that lead to 17 points as well as generating 14 points on defense and special teams. Sanchez and the Eagles’ offense had 9 drives start in their own territory, and they only scored on 2 of them. Expect Sanchez to have an average game at best in the frigid Wisconsin air.
CJ Anderson: This is more of a gut feeling as I hate doubting anyone on the Broncos’ offense, but this is a tough matchup for them. The Rams have allowed only 1 100-yard rusher over their past 5 games and only Demarco Murray achieved that feat against them at home. All of the sudden the Broncos have a very crowded backfield. Although Ronnie Hillman is expected to miss at least this week, Montee Ball is returning from injury and Juwan Thompson continues to get the rare goal line carries. The only way I see Anderson having a big game is if he breaks off a long run and finds pay dirt.
Marshawn Lynch: Last week Beast Mode had one of the best fantasy performances for a running back in recent years, however that was the first time he had gone over the century mark on the ground since week 1. This week, Lynch goes up against the 6th best fantasy run defense instead of the Giants’ 31st best. The Chiefs have not allowed a running back score a touchdown this year and I think they will keep that streak alive in week 11. Expect the Lynch we saw in weeks 5 through 8, not the one we saw in week 10.
AJ Green: If Keenan Lewis is healthy I would stay away from AJ Green. I will repeat what I wrote last week regarding receivers that Lewis follows. He held Kelvin Benjamin to 2 catches for 18 yards, Jordy Nelson to 3 catches for 25 yards and now, before injury, Michael Crabtree to 2 catches for 11 yards. Lewis is the most underrated corner in the game and should strike fear in fantasy owners like Revis, Peterson, Sherman and Hayden do.
Martellus Bennett: The Vikings being number 2 against tight ends this year coupled with how bad the Bears offense is playing makes Bennett a risky week 11 start. I know it’s hard to bench a guy at a position where there is very little depth, but if you have another solid option at tight end I would go with it.
Eagles D/ST: In their last 8 home games, Aaron Rodgers has thrown 28 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. The Eagles have relied on their defense or special teams to score at least 1 touchdown a week, but the statistics tell us that Rodgers won’t give them that opportunity.
Cardinals D/ST: This is not a knock on the Cardinal defense, I’m just weary of a clicking Lions’ offense. The last time the Cardinals went up against a team with 2 stud receivers, the Broncos, they let Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas combine for 327 receiving yards and 2 scores. Don’t let their recent performance against the Rams give you faith that they will stop Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate.
Photo cred: http://goo.gl/7AoT7L
Payton is the newest fantasy football contributor to The Sports Script. Be on the lookout for more of his work in the coming weeks and follow him on Twitter @PaySand!
