Draft Scripts: Using NFBC ADP’s to evaluate Outfield

In anticipation of the FSTA draft this week, I continue my early look at NFBC ADP’s, concentrating on the top 200 in money drafts. While the names continue to shuffle others stay the same. Outfield will be about trust, mixing some power with guys who can steal some bases and catching that bargain that others either overlooked or were burned by last year. It is evident in the ADP information that it will take due diligence and maybe a little luck to hit on the breakouts this year. Due the fact there are forty nine names to digest I made one chart and took the liberty of splitting up their strengths by color:

Red – 20+ HR, 8 < SB (Power); Green – 10 < HR, 20+ SB (Speed); Blue – 10+ HR, 10+ SB (Blends)

Here is how the outfield stacks up. I listed their draft rank below and also inserted their average ADP’s in the NFBC drafts to give an early indicator of their value prior to Thursday’s FSTA draft.

OF NFBC Avg ADP Chart Update 2

Keeping with the format, I have processed each player drafted in the top 200 in charts with their respective Steamer Projections courtesy of Fangraphs.com. After each group I will give some thoughts about how the outfielders stack up and then move to the next one. The first two charts will be in groups of seventeen then the last group will round out to the 49 outfielders according to the ADP numbers.

Group One – 4 Power, 1 Speed and 12 Blends

OF NFBC Projection Chart 1-17

I mean the first seventeen at most positions should be rock solid and for the most part the outfielders are. I have sort of clumped some highlights into categories since the Golden Globes just happened, so here goes. By the way I am not scared of either Matt Kemp or Justin Upton in San Diego but I wrote about that already here.
Safety in numbers: Adam Jones, Baltimore
He is not flashy and is always a regression candidate and he just keeps producing. It is like you do not feel great drafting him at his ADP but he is consistent while not flashy, which in the first round is not so bad.
Bounce Back: Ryan Braun, Milwaukee
I was warning drafters last year to avoid Ryan, but I am back. Since his ADP is trending down, his health may be up and guys who produce 28 home runs and 12 steals are dwindling with a batting average near .300, so I am here with open arms.
Trust Issues: Michael Brantley, Cleveland; Carlos Gonzalez, Colorado
While I am intrigued by the price on Carlos Gonzalez, his checkered health past, last year makes him a very risky option this early. But he could deliver a season like Michael Brantley did last year. Let that marinate a minute. Brantley broke through for a strong 2014, are you feeling lucky paying for a repeat? If you are the cost may alarm you.
Wild Cards: Bryce Harper, Washington; George Springer, Houston
Two guys who could determine how teams finish. I mean there is a 25 home run and 15 steal season while hitting .290 just waiting for Harper who people seem to forget is only 22 years old. With batting averages dropping across baseball again, a guy who could hit 30 home runs and if his legs stay healthy, steal 20 is tolerable if he hits .240, but the .240 could be iffy. If Springer gets his average to .250, then he is a potential top 10 outfielder. There, I said it.
Upside Play: Starling Marte, Pittsburgh
At the same cost as Carlos Gonzalez who may strain a pinkie or Billy Hamilton I can get a poor man’s Jacoby Ellsbury who is younger with more upside? Twenty picks later? Absolutely.
Group Two – 6 Power, 2 Speed, 9 Blends

OF NFBC Projection Chart 18-34

Safety in numbers: Nelson Cruz, Seattle
It is clear that Nelson Cruz’s huge 2014 netted him the Mariners contract which is twofold, first he will protect Robinson Cano and second he adds a power right handed bat that they have craved. While I am not saying to invest heavily in a repeat, he can still hit 25 home runs and you know what you are getting with Cruz.
Bounce Back: Jay Bruce, Cincinnati
At a time when power hitters are craved a strong return by Jay Bruce at a deflated cost would be huge for his fantasy value. We know he can hit for power, or at least should, but will his batting average return to respectability? Or does the shift have another victim?
Trust Issues: Charlie Blackburn, Colorado; J.D. Martinez, Detroit
One had a career year in Coors field and the other was an outcast from the Astros and found success in Motown? If I had to pick from the two, I think a repeat in power by Martinez is possible with some losses in batting average but his Steamer projection supports a solid season. I think Blackburn is a nice story but to invest in him this early when there are other options available late is a tough pick to justify.
Wild Cards: Rusney Castillo, Boston; Jorge Soler, Chicaco Cubs
A Cuban theme here in the wild card section so all kidding aside, they both have immense ability. If Castillo can translate his winter season statistics to the major leagues then the Red Sox have an even deeper outfield and should be dealing Allen Craig sooner than later. Not to kill the theme, but a power hitting outfielder is becoming rarer and rarer, so Jorge Soler has to be on radars. Since he could hit more home runs without destroying a team’s batting average I may venture to gamble on him since he can develop over say a Jay Bruce….the shift….
Upside Play: Jason Heyward, St. Louis
On my tombstone it will read, he trusted in in Jason Heyward. He has not hit left-handed pitching, well, at all lately and even though I sang his praises from the rooftops last year Heyward was replaced in Atlanta by Nick Markakis? Yes, that Nick Markakis. I am not saying that 20/20 is a guarantee but would it surprise anyone that being a Cardinal unlocked his potential? Would not be the first guy to have that happen.
Group Three: 3 Power, 4 Speed, 7 Blends, Melky Cabrera

OF NFBC Projection Chart 35-49

Safety in numbers: There is not really safety out here….

Bounce Back: Shin-Soo Choo, Texas
With health, it is hard to imagine a prohibitive top twenty outfielder in 2014 draft preps has fallen so precipitously, but Choo has. How many owners did he upset? In NFBC formats this means he is a tenth round pick and chance well worth taking. Unless the curse of Kinsler is real.
Trust Issues: Same as the safety problem, there are going to be trust issues here as well. Just look at the ADP’s of Alex Rios and the aforementioned Choo.
Wild Cards: Avisail Garcia, Chicago White Sox; Yasmany Tomas, Arizona
It takes some stones to invest in players out here in drafts and when you see the pitching options you will see why I am going to get power and hitters early and try to target pitching later. But I will take a chance on Avisail Garcia here since he could have a ceiling of 20 home runs with ten steals at an ADP of 172 on average. All day every day. The White Sox are going to score some runs. Yasmany Tomas will come with some hype especially with the breakout that Jose Abreu had last year but I fear that Tomas will resemble a different White Sox teammate, Dayan Viciedo. Tread lightly here….
Upside: Gregory Polanco, Pittsburgh
There are all kinds of terms, post-hype sleeper for example, whatever you want to say I think Polanco had a tough go after his promotion last year but he is talented. After watching him in person I was a fan and he has presence. Though his ceiling in 2015 is probably 13 home runs and 25 stolen bases that is a bargain where he is going.
It is getting late so I am going to offer up one more chart with player that are beyond the top 200 in each category for outfield with their projections included. When you speak of me, please speak nicely.

OF NFBC Undrafted Chart with Projections Updated

Statistical credits: Baseball-Reference.com, Fangraphs.com, ESPN.go.com
Photo cred: http://goo.gl/DKf0LS

Check out FantasyRundown.com for all of our latest articles and other great fantasy content.

Greg Jewett is The Sports Script’s senior fantasy baseball writer. Follow him on Twitter @gjewett9!

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Profile Scripts: Robinson Cano

Will Cano bounce back in 2015 to first round status? The Mariners are banking on it but should you?
Will Cano bounce back in 2015? The Mariners are banking on it

With the Seattle Mariners recent contract extension of Kyle Seager and free agent signing of Nelson Cruz, it seems that the fantasy prospects of Robinson Cano are under the radar. As the 2015 draft season approaches, this may create a unique buying opportunity on one of fantasy baseball’s most consistent performers at second base. Robinson Cano entered the 2014 season as the 11th player taken in live drafts according to Fantasy Pros but whether it was ballpark effects or the lack of support in Seattle, he had his worst season for fantasy purposes in years. Not only did Cano finish outside the top 30 on the ESPN Player Rater (32nd to be exact), he finished 5th for second baseman. What has made him a first round stalwart is the fact that you could count on his batting average and power at a position where it is rare to find both of those qualities. But Cano carried over his second half HR/FB% from 2013 of 10.3% in New York with him to Seattle where his HR/FB% for 2014 was a career low 10.7% on the season.

One of the overlooked factors in this regression is the fact that Cano has had 30 players between New York and Seattle that have hit behind him over the last 2 years. If you were facing the Mariners at a pivotal point of the game are you more prone to pitch to Cano or take your chances with the likes of Justin Smoak, Kendrys Morales or Corey Hart? Not a difficult decision. In New York the year prior, the cleanup hitters were Travis Hadrner, Alfonso Soriano and Vernon Wells. As a refresher, here is how the hitters batting fourth the last two years have fared:

2013 NY Yankees #4 hitters: 162 G, 70 R, 24 HR, 84 RBI, 11 SB .228/.305/.382
2014 Mariners #4 hitters: 162 G, 63 R, 19 HR, 75 RBI, 8 SB .218/295/352

Over the last 2 seasons the OPS of the players batting after Cano is .687 and .647 respectively. In spite of this, Cano’s average OPS over the last 3 seasons is .904 and only dropped to .836 in Seattle despite the depressed ballpark effects for left-handed power. According to Fangraphs.com, Safeco Field scores a 99 for ballpark effect on left-handed power. Conversely, Yankee Stadium scores a 117. In order to figure out where Cano’s power has gone, we need to look deeper into the numbers.

I started by looking at Cano’s spray charts. Since there is a steep drop in his home run production from 2013 (27 HR) to 2014 (14 HR) these are the two charts I chose to focus on. First, here is the 2013 chart:

Cano 2013 spray chart
Now comparing that chart to 2014, you will see the main difference is in the amount of home runs, especially to right center and left center field:
Cano 2014 spray chart
Eeven though the fences at Safeco were moved in and lowered, Cano is hitting fewer pitches for power to the alleys. In 2013, Cano hit 8 homers to right-center and four to left-center, but in 2014 he only had 1 to each of those destinations. Cano hit only 3 fewer home runs to right field and had the same to left so those were small differences.

Using the HR/BIP (home runs per ball in play) charts from BrooksBaseball.net, I hoped to see why the power disappeared from the alleys. Since a picture paints a thousand words, I will defer again to the charts then discuss what I noticed. First, here is the 2013 HR/BIP zone profile:

Cano 2013 hr-bip
There are some subtle differences to be seen in 2014’s HR/BIP zone profile here:

Cano 2014 hr-bip
In 2013, Cano hit one-third of his home runs in the bottom third, middle part of the strike zone. 9 of the 47 balls that he put in play in that zone found the seats. However, that same zone had more balls in play (50) but the home runs were cut in half to only 4 for the season. In fact, over the lower third part of the strike zone, Cano lost 5 home runs in 2014. It also seems like Cano really missed driving the ball to left-center field as he hit 10 home runs on pitches to the outer third of the strike zone in 2013. That total was also cut in half in 2014.

Before trying to project Cano’s 2015 season I will take a look at some of his underlying statistics from the last 3 years:

2012 LD% 25.6, GB% 48.7, HR/FB% 21.1, SwStr% 8.3, wRC+ 149
2013 LD% 26, GB% 44.3, HR/FB% 17.3, SwStr% 6.4, wRC+ 142
2014 LD% 22.6, GB% 52.6, HR/FB% 10.7, SwStr% 6, wRC+ 136
Career LD% 21.3, GB% 48.4, HR/FB% 13.8, SwStr% 6.5, wRC+ 127

Despite his line drive percentage dropping the last 3 years, he has maintained his batting average. His swinging strike percentage further punctuates that as it has gone down the last 2 years and has lowered his career percentage. Since weighted runs created evens out ballpark effects it is a useful statistic. The league average is 100 and the move to Seattle only dropped Cano’s wRC+ by 6 points, but that is a result of the lineup surrounding him as much as any ballpark factor. With the additions of Austin Jackson and Nelson Cruz already, this should rebound for Cano moving forward. What fantasy owners should be most worried about is the steep drop in home run to fly ball ratio which has been cut in half since 2012. Due to his ability to hit for average and drive in runs, if Cano can return to 20 or more home runs, then his return to fantasy prominence in 2015 will happen. But there is an “if” attached to that.

Where does Robby go from here? One of the reasons that Cano vaulted to first round draft status was his consistent production in New York. Here are his last 3 seasons on average as a Yankee:

Robinson Cano 2011-2013 season average: 160 G, 97 R, 29 HR, 106 RBI, 6 SB .309/.371/.533

To forecast what he can do in 2015 I have to take into account what Cano did this past year in Seattle:

Robinson Cano 2014 season: 157 G, 77 R, 14 HR, 82 RBI, 10 SB .314/.382/.454

Since I am interested in how the Seattle numbers mix with the last three in New York, I will combine them and here is what Robinson Cano’s last four years averaged look like:

Robinson Cano Last 4-year average: 159 G, 92 R, 25 HR, 100 RBI, 7 SB .311/.373/.514

Just 1 season in Seattle has caused Cano’s last 4 year averages to drop in runs (5), home runs (4), RBI (6) and slugging percentage (19 points). Even though this seems like a knee jerk reaction, one almost has to account for further regression in Cano’s home run totals per season. With the recent additions to the Mariner lineup and possibly one more on the horizon, this will be a much deeper offense no matter where they are hitting. Cano did raise his HR/FB% over the second half last year to 11.9% so maybe he is adjusting to the ballpark. Here is the Steamer projection courtesy Fangraphs.com:

Robinson Cano Steamer 2015: 146 G, 81 R, 18 HR, 83 RBI, 6 SB .295/.360/.461

My Robinson Cano projection: 159 G, 94 R, 22 HR, 98 RBI, 7 SB .307/.365/.484

Statistical credits: Baseball-Reference.com, Fangraphs.com, BrooksBaseball.net, ESPN.com
Photo cred: http://goo.gl/qPxfub

Check out FantasyRundown.com for all of our latest articles and other great fantasy content.

Greg Jewett is The Sports Script’s senior fantasy baseball writer. Follow him on Twitter @gjewett9!

Transaction Scripts: Nelson Cruz to the Mariners

Seattle finally gets a power right handed bat but did they pay for a career year?
Seattle finally gets a right-handed power bat, but did they pay for a career year?

The new of Nelson Cruz signing a 4-year deal with Seattle wasn’t all that surprising given that they didn’t want to deal any of their young starting pitching. Due to the complete dearth of production not only from their designated hitters, but the cleanup spot in their lineup, this was an organizational must. Now, will the real Robinson Cano please stand up? He has been asking for a right-handed power bat since his arrival in Seattle. Now he has it. Whether it was the career high ground ball percentage (52.6% in 2014) or the move to Safeco, Cano was a disappointment to many fantasy owners this past season. But things are looking up in Seattle with the Cruz signing and the late season acquisition of Austin Jackson. Buster Olney tweeted out a projected Seattle lineup yesterday:

I believe that Cruz will hit cleanup, pushing Kyle Seager to fifth in the batting order, splitting the left-handed bats. After only missing the playoffs by one game in 2014, Cruz plus one more bat may be the remedy. I alluded to the designated hitter and cleanup batter’s lack of productivity last year and to further illustrate, here are each totals for 2014:

Seattle DH’s 2014: 152 G, 60 R, 15 HR, 50 RBI, 10 SB .190/.266/.301
Seattle #4 Batters 2014:
162 G, 63 R, 19 HR, 75 RBI, 8 SB .218/.295/.352

To say that Robinson Cano has to be frustrated about his protection the last two years is an understatement. While the Mariners featured 16 different players who hit fourth, the 2013 Yankees had 14 different cleanup batters with Travis Hafner (56 games), Alfonso Soriano (44 games), Vernon Wells (27 games) and Lyle Overbay (11 games) leading the way. Here is how they stacked up as a group:

NY Yankee #4 Batters 2013: 162 G, 70 R, 24 HR, 84 RBI, 11 SB .228/.305/.382

Seattle has to try and placate not only their fan base, but their franchise investment, Robinson Cano. Everyone knows that Seattle needs a right-handed power bat to balance their lineup and protect Cano. But did the Mariners overpay at 4-years and 57 million dollars? Only time will tell and it will be dependent upon if Seattle can win a World Series within this window. With King Felix and a young crop of starting pitching arriving, now seems like the time to go for it.

Not only is Cruz a key to improving Robinson Cano in 2015, but there are some eerie similarities between the two. Cruz saw a drop in production after the All-Star break in 2014. However, in comparison to the numbers above, even his worst half of the season trumps either of the statistical lines above.

Nelson Cruz 2014 1H: 93 G, 56 R, 28 HR, 74 RBI, 3 SB .287/.353/.570
Nelson Cruz 2014 2H:
66 G, 31 R, 12 HR, 34 RBI, 1 SB .249/.306/.463

But here is how I started to think about Robinson Cano and how there could be foreshadowing about Cruz’s production in Seattle. Cano’s first and second half splits in New York before signing with Seattle (a move the organization felt it had to make):

Robinson Cano 2013 1H: 95 G, 53 R, 21 HR, 65 RBI, 6 SB .302/.386/.531
Robinson Cano 2013 2H:
65 G, 28 R, 6 HR, 42 RBI, 1 SB .331/.379/.494

Can Cano's 2013 second half be a predictor for Cruz in Seattle? Will Cano bounce back in 2015? Yes and yes
Will Cano bounce back in 2015?

It was only a year ago, but I really did not remember how good of a first half Cano had in 2013 and he almost matched Cruz’s first half in 2014. One of the inferences that stat people will point to is that Cano’s HR/FB% in the second half of 2013 dropped to 10.3% from 21.6% in the first half and it carried over into 2014, as Cano’s full season HR/FB% dropped to 10.7% in 2014. Much will be made of the ballpark but Cano’s second half of 2013 was with the Yankees. Nelson Cruz’s first half HR/FB% was a robust 23.9% and dropped to 15.2% in the second half just under his career number of 17.3%. So before I attempt to predict what Cruz will do in 2015 in Seattle, I need to go back a step. Please remember Cruz’s 2014 second half and Cano’s 2013 second half as a frame of reference.

Here are each player’s three-season averages entering their first season in Seattle. For Cruz, I am using the average of his 2012, 2013, and career year of 2014 for his totals and for Robinson Cano I will use his last three years as a Yankee from 2011 – 2013:

Nelson Cruz last 3 years: 142 G, 74 R, 30 HR, 91 RBI, 5 SB .266/.327/.497
Robinson Cano last 3 years in NY:
160 G, 97 R, 29 HR, 106 RBI, 6 SB .309/.371/.533
Robinson Cano 2014 Seattle:
157 G, 77 R, 14 HR, 82 RBI, 10 SB .314/.382/.454

Taking into account the production behind Cano in the lineup, his counting stats suffered. With the carryover of his drop in second half HR/FB% and the possible ballpark effects, this was Cano last year. The move to Seattle dropped Cano’s runs and RBI by 20% and his home runs in half. Even with the Mariners lowering the fence heights, this plus the lineup had an effect. It is most apparent when looking at Cano’s splits in 2013 and 2014 and his OPS compared when hitting to left field and to right field:

Robinson Cano 2013 hitting to LF: 1.077 OPS; hitting to RF – 1.010 OPS
Robinson Cano 2014 hitting to LF:
1.030 OPS; hitting to RF – .738 OPS

It is not all Safeco, but Cano suffered an almost .300 point drop in his OPS last year. This can be an outlier but it is hard to ignore. This tweet by Jeff Zimmerman was an interesting one in regards to the ballpark effects in Seattle as a precursor to Cruz signing:

In my last comparison, based on the ballpark effects here are Cruz and Cano’s last three years using ESPN’s Home Run Tracker data:

Nelson Cruz 2012: Average Standard Distance 417.3 feet, Average Speed off Bat 106.8 MPH
Nelson Cruz 2013: Average Standard Distance 407.1 feet, Average Speed off Bat 104.5 MPH
Nelson Cruz 2014: Average Standard Distance 402.2 feet, Average Speed off Bat 104.7 MPH
Robinson Cano 2012: Average Standard Distance 400.1 feet, Average Speed off Bat 104.3 MPH
Robinson Cano 2013: Average Standard Distance 399.3 feet, Average Speed off Bat 103.8 MPH
Robinson Cano 2014: Average Standard Distance 375.4 feet, Average Speed off Bat 101.2 MPH

That tweet was no joke, Cano lost only two MPH on his average speed of the bat but that accounted for a drop in average home run distance of over 20 feet in 2014. It is going to be difficult to say the same will happen to Cruz but his margin for error may affect his home run totals.

What else will make projecting Nelson Cruz’s 2015 difficult is how different his 2014 was from his career numbers. Hot first half aside, here are some interesting numbers about Cruz in regards to his home/road splits:

Career Home: 107 HR, .287/.350/.540, wRC+ 129
Career Away:
90 HR, .250/.307/.462, wRC+ 106
2014 Home:
15 HR, .252/.320/.463, wRC+ 114
2014 Away:
25 HR, .289/.346/.584, wRC+ 160

Complete reversal, right? To set a baseline for Cruz I will use his three-year game average of 142 games, though acting as DH should keep him healthy. Based on the second half, his counting stats over 142 games would be 66 runs, 26 home runs and 73 RBI. Not a bad start to set a projection at. If he kept that pace and did get to the 159 games he reached in 2012 and 2014 then the numbers jump to: 75 runs, 29 home runs and 82 RBI. I am willing to split the difference.

My 2015 Nelson Cruz Projection: 157 G, 73 R, 27 HR, 88 RBI, 5 SB .266/.327/.478

What I’m most interested in is whether Robinson Cano can bounce back. Since his disappointment in 2014 will provide a buying opportunity, I am willing to reach for Cano this year when I avoided him in drafts last year. It has been 2 years since Cano had a capable player batting behind him, and though Nelson Cruz has his warts, he represents a huge improvement as protection in the lineup. If Austin Jackson and James Jones can get on base, the Mariners offense will be vastly improved.

Statistical credits: Baseball-Reference.com, Fangraphs.com, ESPN.com, BrooksBaseball.net
Photo cred: http://goo.gl/5GIXh3 (Cruz), http://goo.gl/r5SAMS (Cano)

Check out FantasyRundown.com for all of our latest articles and other great fantasy content.

Greg Jewett is The Sports Script’s senior fantasy baseball writer. Follow him on Twitter @gjewett9!

Top DFS Plays for 08/09/14

*Top hitters and pitchers highlight exceptional matchups that may include stars, lesser-known players and those on your waiver wires.

When I put together my top hitters and pitchers I factor in several things. First, prior matchup history, whether the hitter is hot and the pitcher’s history against that type of batter. Also, these matchups are normally released in the morning so make sure that you double-check the weather leading up to games in case they were postponed or the player got the day off.

New to Daily Fantasy? Head over to FanDuel.com and use Promo Code SCRIPT and get 100% match on your first deposit!

Top DFS hitters for today:

Jose Bautista vs. Max Scherzer – hitting .571 (8/14) with 4 2Bs, a HR, 3 RBIs & 3 BBs

I fully support a O’s stack today. They have destroyed Lackey this year. He is 1-2 with a 7.02 ERA in 3 games against them this season.

Manny Machado vs. John Lackey – hitting .389 (7/18) with a 2B, 2 HRs & 4 RBIs
Nelson Cruz – hitting .333 (12/36) with 2 2Bs, 2 HRs, 8 RBIs & 2 BBs
Nick Markakis – hitting .328 (21/64) with 6 2Bs, a 3B, 5 RBIs & 6 BBs

Ryan Howard vs. Dillon Gee – hitting .450 (9/20) with a 2B, 6 HRs, 14 RBIs & a BB
6 HRS in 20 At-Bats, I really like those odds.

Daniel Murphy vs. Cole Hamels – hitting .354 (17/48) with 4 2Bs, a HR, 6 RBIs & a BB
Murphy is red-hot at the plate over the last week and has a fantastic history against Hamels. Must start today.

Ricky’s HR Guarantee: Ryan Howard or Nelson Cruz

Top DFS Pitcher for today:

Francisco Liriano vs. San Diego Padres – Liriano in his last 4 starts has been insane good. Padres aren’t exactly a offensive powerhouse and Liriano should have no problem making you some money today.

Trailer of the Day – Interstellar – Christopher Nolan and Mattew McConaughey together? Count me in. The trailers look fantastic and I really can’t wait for this movie.

Script Splits: Using Advanced Stats to Rank OF versus LHP

Scary to think Stanton is slugging .713 vs. LHP & at 24 is just entering his peak power years
It is scary to think Stanton is slugging .713 vs. LHP and at 24 is just entering his peak power years

While working on the Script Splits articles, sometimes perception does meet reality. However, this is an imperfect process. One of the hardest things when playing daily matchups is not only recognizing what hitter has the optimal opportunity, but also maximizing that decision. Even when you play the splits correctly, it can go wrong. Once again I have tried to compile a list of the outfielders who have the best split advantages. Because of the high number of players, I have divided this over two columns with this article highlighting the best against left-handed pitching. There are some obvious choices, but as always there are some surprises. At the end I will try to tier them by the aggregate averages and will include three bonus plays. Here are the categories in which I investigated with:

wOBA: Weighted On Base Average represents all the ways a player gets on base (HBP counts in this metric). It is used to measure a player’s overall offensive value.

ISO: Isolated Power  is simply a player’s slugging percentage minus his batting average.

OPS: On base plus Slugging is exactly what it’s surname suggests, adding together both statistics (OBP and SLG%). In the daily game being getting on base via the extra base hit is preferred.

AB/HR: A simple stat. How many homers does a player hit between each at bat? The fewer the better.

wRC+: Weighted Runs Created Plus A measure of how many runs a player creates. The “+” accounts for differing ballpark factors. So a player who’s home park is Coors is weighted to equal one in Citi Field, for example.

Since many of the daily sites refer to wOBA and wRC+, I thought these were two great target starts to dive into. First I will list the top 20 outfielders in each of the five categories above and then show the top 20 on average with their 2014 statistics versus left-handed pitching included at the end.

Outfielders versus left-handed Pitching (minimum 100 plate appearances):

wOBA:
1. Giancarlo Stanton .505
2. Jose Bautista .483
3. Adam Jones .477
4. Scott Van Slyke .461
5. Emilio Bonifacio .448
6. Drew Stubbs .447
7. Justin Upton .434
8. Alex Rios .434
9. Nelson Cruz .424
10. Rajai Davis .422
11. Mike Trout .422
12. Khris Davis .414
13. Jayson Werth .412
14. Dexter Fowler .400
15. JD Martinez .394
16. Josh Willingham .390
17. Josh Hamilton .390
18. Desmond Jennings .382
19. Brandon Guyer .382
20. Andrew McCutchen .379

ISO:
1. Scott Van Slyke .400
2. Giancarlo Stanton .325
3. JD Martinez .320
4. Jose Bautista .313
5. Adam Jones .303
6. Mike Trout .294
7. Justin Upton .286
8. Khris Davis .286
9. Mike Morse .261
10. Jay Bruce .259
11. Alex Rios .258
12. Drew Stubbs .247
13. Desmond Jennings .242
14. Nelson Cruz .234
15. Marlon Byrd .233
16. Andrew McCutchen .227
17. Marcell Ozuna .222
18. Yoenis Cespedes .222
19. Ryan Braun .218
20. Josh Willingham .217

OPS:
1. Giancarlo Stanton 1.202
2. Jose Bautista 1.139
3. Adam Jones 1.112
4. Scott Van Slyke 1.085
5. Drew Stubbs 1.036
6. Alex Rios 1.033
7. Emilio Bonifacio 1.025
8. Justin Upton 1.009
9. Nelson Cruz .997
10. Rajai Davis .974
11. Mike Trout .970
12. Khris Davis .962
13. Jayson Werth .930
14. JD Martinez .920
15. Dexter Fowler .907
16. Josh Willingham .905
17. Josh Hamilton .903
18. Desmond Jennings .879
19. Andrew McCutchen .860
20. Brandon Guyer .850

AB/HR:
1. Scott Van Slyke 10
2. Jose Bautista 10.4
3. J.D. Martinez 12.5
4. Justin Upton 12.8
5. Giancarlo Stanton 13.3
6. Jay Bruce 13.5
7. Mike Trout 13.6
8. Marlon Byrd 14.7
9. Khris Davis 15.2
10. Adam Jones 15.6
11. Marcell Ozuna 16.2
12. Mike Morse 16.4
13. Yoenis Cespedes 16.5
14. Curtis Granderson 17.2
15. George Springer 18
16. Drew Stubbs 18.6
17. Andrew McCutchen 18.8
18. Torii Hunter 20.6
19. Carlos Gomez 22.3
20. Desmond Jennings 23.8

wRC+:
1. Giancarlo Stanton 229
2. Jose Bautista 211
3. Adam Jones 209
4. Scott Van Slyke 204
5. Emilio Bonifacio 189
6. Justin Upton 182
7. Mike Trout 177
8. Drew Stubbs 175
9. Alex Rios 174
10. Nelson Cruz 172
11. Rajai Davis 170
12. Jayson Werth 166
13. Khris Davis 165
14. Dexter Fowler 157
15. Josh Hamilton 155
16. Desmond Jennings 150
17. Josh Willingham 150
18. J.D. Martinez 150
19. Brandon Guyer 150
20. Andrew McCutchen 146

There were some surprises on all of the lists but I was really shocked at players like Andrew McCutchen and Hunter Pence not being higher on the lists. It shows how the daily game is changing the landscape of fantasy baseball as a player like Brandon Guyer who is priced appreciably lower than a former MVP provides value. Again, which pitchers the batters are facing are of the utmost importance and maximizing those matchups is the key. With that in mind, here is the top 20 overall based on the five categories.

Overall Rankings Based on Aggregate Averages Above:
1. Giancarlo Stanton – 15 R, 6 HR, 12 RBI, 2 SB, 388/490/713
2. Jose Bautista – 17 R, 8 HR, 14 RBI, 361/465/675
3. Scott Van Slyke – 16 R, 7 HR, 10 RBI, 1 SB, 271/414/671
4. Adam Jones – 23 R, 7 HR, 16 RBI, 1 SB, 376/433/679
5. Justin Upton – 17 R, 6 HR, 13 RBI, 312/411/597
6. Mike Trout – 25 R, 8 HR, 16 RBI, 1 SB, 275/402/569
7. Drew Stubbs – 16 R, 5 HR, 12 RBI, 7 SB, 366/423/613
8. Alex Rios – 14 R, 2 HR, 20 RBI, 371/404/629
9. Khris Davis – 18 R, 6 HR, 20 RBI, 1 SB, 319/357/604
10. J.D. Martinez – 10 R, 6 HR, 16 RBI, 1 SB, 256/322/564
11. Emilio Bonifacio – 19 R, 2 HR, 9 RBI, 4 SB, 403/442/583
12. Nelson Cruz – 10 R, 5 HR, 16 RBI, 1 SB, 370/400/574
13. Rajai Davis – 16 R, 3 HR, 16 RBI, 8 SB, 370/400/574
14. Jayson Werth – 16 R, 3 HR, 14 RBI, 1 SB, 351/430/500
15. Mike Morse – 14 R, 7 HR, 13 RBI, 235/302/496
16. Marlon Byrd – 17 R, 7 HR, 14 RBI, 1 SB, 282/321/515
17. Desmond Jennings – 16 R, 4 HR, 9 RBI, 274/364/516
18. Dexter Fowler – 16 R, 2 HR, 12 RBI, 1 SB, 333/426/481
19. Andrew McCutchen – 15 R, 4 HR, 11 RBI, 1 SB, 253/380/480
20. Marcell Ozuna – 12 R, 5 HR, 15 RBI, 272/314/494

Three Bonus Plays:
1. Jonny Gomes – 12 R, 4 HR, 21 RBI, 303/359/429
2. Brandon Guyer – 11 R, 1 HR, 8 RBI, 348/411/439
3. Hunter Pence – 22 R, 3 HR, 13 RBI, 4 SB, 312/368/456

Stubbs power/speed combo with 5 HR & 7 SB vs. LHP makes him a great daily play
Stubbs’ power/speed combo with 5 HR and 7 SB vs. LHP makes him a great daily option

I used the underlined players to create tiers above. In tier one they are all fantastic against left-handed pitching but I would use Scott Van Slyke more in GPP contests rather than cash games like 50/50 or head-to-head. His supporting numbers are strong, but his boom or bust ability makes him a risky play. Tier-two has options, as you can go with power like Nelson Cruz, Justin Upton and Khris Davis, or opt for a speed guy with pop like Rajai Davis, Emilio Bonifacio and Drew Stubbs. With the trade of Austin Jackson, Rajai Davis should hit leadoff against all lefties increasing his stock in the weeks ahead. One has to think that the Braves would give Bonifacio a look at the top of their lineup over B.J. Upton, but Fredi Gonzalez’s batting orders leave much to be desired. The third tier consists of solid players who you can target when they are hot. Jayson Werth is a prime example, right now he is a middling daily player, but his price jumps when he goes on a homer binge, the key is pouncing on him at the right time. Drew Stubbs is a player I like to use against southpaws, especially at home. His ability to not only hit home runs, but steal bases provides a nice baseline of points when building an optimal lineup. All of the bonus plays are great fillers to a lineup and names to keep in mind when they face a left-handed pitcher and can provide salary relief depending on the site. Not only can Major League teams exploit split advantages, daily fantasy and leagues with daily lineups can as well. Baseball is unpredictable, but advanced metrics help identify who to target.

Greg Jewett is The Sports Script’s senior fantasy baseball writer. Follow him on Twitter @gjewett9!

Statistical credits: Fangraphs.com, ESPN.com
Photo cred: http://goo.gl/avjaLT (Stanton), http://goo.gl/nnY9xw (Stubbs)

The Sports Script Fan Duel MLB Lineup for 05/08

I am going to bring you the lineup I feel is the best for you to bring home some $$$ for the day. Early on we are fighting the guessing game but riding some of the guys hot bats to start the season.

 Terrible night last night!

Well everything I am going to bring you my lineup in which I am playing over at FanDuel.com –RIGHT NOW IF YOU JOIN Fan Duel and make your 1st deposit using the Promo Code – SCRIPT – You will get 100% bonus match on it!!!!!!!! Just do it folks.
Which if you haven’t joined just click this link here: http://partners.fanduel.com/processing/clickthrgh.asp?btag=a_3360b_2

The Sports Script Fan Duel MLB Lineup for 05/08

20140508-160418.jpg

Don’t forget to tune into the Fantasy Forecaster each and every Wednesday at 9 PM EST here: http://www.blogtalkradio.com/foryourconsideration or download the show on iTunes by clicking the link here. https://itunes.apple.com/podcast/the-sports-script/id850876078?mt=2

The Sports Script Fan Duel MLB Lineup for 04/03

Who is excited baseball is back????? I know I am which also means that Daily Fantasy Baseball is back as well. I really enjoy DFS Baseball as it keeps you even more involved and keeps you up to date with guys you normally wouldn’t care about.

Gio Gonzalez did some work for us yesterday and hopefully you cleaned up yesterday like I did over at Fan Duel. I went 3 for 3 yesterday, so let’s bring us some good luck again today.

Well everything I am going to bring you my lineup in which I am playing over at FanDuel.com – Which if you haven’t joined just click this link here: http://partners.fanduel.com/processing/clickthrgh.asp?btag=a_3360b_2

But I am going to give you the lineup I think is going to give you the best chance to win. Early on in the season you are really playing a guessing game but you can look at each player’s previous history against these pitchers and the bigger the sample size and the history of success rate, will help you decide who you should start. Now throughout the day up until the 1st pitch of the first game I may change or alter my lineup depending on weather and possible late scratches, so make sure to check back throughout the day.

The Sports Script Fan Duel MLB Lineup for 04/03

lineup

As it sits right now, I am digging this lineup. Here are a few reasons why I selected a few guys.

Chris Archer vs. Toronto – He is 1-0 with a 1.65 ERA against the Jays in 3 starts last season. I like the value more so based on being able to fill out some of the bigger names in my lineup as well. I wouldn’t be upset to see you go with someone else in this spot.

Paul Goldschmidt vs. Tim Lincecum – hitting .500 (10/20) with a 2B, 5 HRs, 11 RBIs & 2 BBs

Nelson Cruz vs. Felix Doubront – 2 jacks in two games, I like what I see and going to ride him to finish off this series against the Sox.

Dustin Pedroia vs. Wei-Yin Chen – hitting .579(11/19) with 4 2Bs, a 3B, 4 RBIs & 2 BBs
Pedroia will be in every daily lineup of mine today. This is a nice sample size and he has a great success rate against Chen.

UPDATED***********

If you are more inclined to starting a top flight starter in your daily lineup, this is another lineup that I like today.

lineup2

Anibal Sanchez vs. Kansas City over the last years is 3-2 with a 0.99 ERA and 24 Ks in 5 starts.

Matt Holliday vs. Homer Bailey – hitting .343 (12/35) with 3 2Bs, a 3B, 2 HRs, 7 RBIs & 2 BBs

Don’t forget to tune into the Fantasy Forecaster each and every Wednesday at 9 PM EST here: http://www.blogtalkradio.com/foryourconsideration

5 Questions Surrounding Fantasy Baseball Outfielders

The MLB season is upon us which means it is time for the Fantasy Baseball season. We here at the Sports Script want to do everything possible in setting you up for draft day and helping you throughout the season to win a Fantasy Baseball Championship. We are gathering a team of Sports Script writers as well as some special guest to answer 5 key questions about each position for the upcoming 2014 Fantasy Baseball Season. Today we have gathered myself (Ricky Valero), Matt Bell, Matt Wincherauk and special guest Jonathan (@Jonathan_TTF) from Top Team Fantasy (@TopTeamFantasy) as we are going to take a look at the Outfield.

5 Questions surrounding Fantasy Baseball Outfielders

1 – Which player or players are you targeting?

Jonathan – Carlos Beltran: Everyone always looks for the sexy guys like Yasiel Puig (more on him later) and Billy Hamilton, but you win your leagues by grabbing those value players like Beltran. He’s 36 years old, but based on his 10th round ADP; I love the 8-time all-star who is moving from a tough ballpark to a launching pad in New York (check this out for a great read on the subject). He’s been more durable than you may thing in his last three seasons and will be almost a lock for a 25 HR season. I’d be shocked if he finishes outside the top 20 OFs.

Ricky – Unlike my buddy Jonathan and many others that I have had some nice chats about in the past, Yasiel Puig is a guy I not only want on my team, I am willing to reach in the middle of the 1st round for the guy. If you are drafting around the 5th or 6th spot in this year’s draft there is a bunch of uncertainty. After Cabrera and Trout, the field is wide open. Now I think Goldschmidt is a shoe-in at #3 but after him you have McCutchen, Cano and Davis lined up right after all of whom have some serious questions. If you are drafting 4th-6th you are more than likely not going to have a chance at Puig in round 2. I present the following things to you.

He ranked 6th in batting average (Min. 400 PA)
He scored 66 runs in only 104 games
His 19 HRs/382 PA (20.1% AB/HR) ranked 25th in baseball
12th in OBP (.391) higher than Cano/Davis/Beltre/Ramirez
His 160 wRC+ was 4th in baseball and was 60 points higher than the league average
Of the 56 players with over a 20% K% only 5 players hit .300 or better last year. Only Chris Johnson had a higher batting average than Puig did.

That’s all from a guy in his first season in the MLB. While there is talks questioning is work ethic (he’s “30” pounds heavier) or questioning his “character” but I am taking him based on his talent. End of story.

Matt Bell – If I have one of the top picks in any of my drafts I’ll be targeting Mike Trout who I think is primed for another huge year. That pick is obvious, so the other outfielders that I’ll be looking to target include Bryce Harper and Josh Hamilton. Harper is no secret to any fantasy player as he’s burst onto the scene pretty quickly in the past two years. He spent some time on the DL last year which really hurt his numbers. I see Harper if healthy hitting for an average of .275 with 30 home runs and over 20 stolen bases. Josh Hamilton probably makes some people throw up in their mouth hearing his name, but I really think he’s primed for a bounce back year.  Hamilton is going to have a ton of value at the spot he will fall to in most drafts. He’s coming off his worst year hitting for an average of .250 with only 21 home runs. Hamilton will improve over last year and being ranked 32nd in the ESPN rankings leads me to believe he can be had in the later rounds of most fantasy drafts.

Matt Wincherauk – Mike Trout. Not adventurous enough? Fine. I’ll go with Bryce Harper here. I feel like he’s about to really break out, like many thought he would last year before injuries got to him. More on him in a later question.

2 – Which player are you staying away from?

Jonathan – Curtis Granderson: We just spoke about the impact of Beltran moving to Yankee stadium, well Granderson leaving Yankee stadium will have an opposite effect. Here’s his home/away splits since joining the Yankees (given in per 100 AB numbers):

Home: 19.75 R, 7.03 HR, 17.41 RBI, 2.9 SB, 0.254 AVG
Away: 18.75 R, 5.8 HR, 16.85 RBI, 3.24 SB, 0.236 AVG

As you would expect, his power was significantly down on the road, and moving to a more neutral park (Citi Field) will only make matters worse for the aging (former) star, not to mention the stark difference in lineup around him. He’s already 33 years old and is coming off a year in which he was limited to only 61 games, so you’d have a hard time convincing me a comeback year is in the works. Don’t let his name value trick you into overpaying for Granderson on draft day.

Ricky – Bryce Harper – He is being over drafted in so many leagues this year and it’s insane. He started off with a Monster April last season and boom just died for months on end. He struggles really badly against lefties as seen below.

Vs. LHP – 131 AB – 12 R – 25 H – 2 HR – 16 RBI – .214 BA – .327 OBP

I think this is a make or break season for Harper if he is going to be among the élite Fantasy outfielders or not. With a current ADP of 12, I am staying as far away from Harper as I can.

Matt Bell – The player I’m staying away from is Carlos Gomez as he was much in the spot light for the Brewers last year with Braun hurt. I think Gomez is going to struggle to hit anywhere close to the .280 mark he hit for last year. The previous years he hadn’t hit anywhere close to that mark with .260 being his highest average. He has some power, but I don’t expect him to hit over 20 home runs next year and he just won’t be able to justify his early draft pick status.

Matt Wincherauk – I’m avoiding Ellsbury like I talked about in the first question. His power numbers might benefit from being in New York, but he is the biggest injury risk in baseball, and I can’t trust him. That and he’s a little traitor.

3 – Who is the biggest sleeper heading into 2014?

Jonathan – Melky Cabrera: How much of Melky’s excellent 2011 and 2012 seasons were due to steroids? We’ll probably never know. But the hate has gone too far. Melky was drafted as a top 25 OF last year, and although he’s coming off a terrible year that was largely due to injuries. He’s still going to be starting in left and looks likely to be starting in the #2 hole. There is absolutely no reason not to gamble on him considering his 281.7 ADP (79th OF).

Ricky – Khris Davis is someone I really have an eye on in all my upcoming drafts. He is coming off the board in the 15th-17th round right now and I think he has a much higher ceiling than that. He hit a pretty solid .279 and hit 11 homers in 136 ABs which equated to 1 in every 12 at bats. While it’ll be tough for him to match those types of numbers in 2014 but even if he balloons to 1 in 20, he will still hit 20+ HRs, hit for a decent average and may even steal you a few bags. I would take him in the 12th or 13th round ahead of guys like Michael Bourn and Torii Hunter.

Matt Bell – The biggest sleeper in the outfield is tough as there are just so many players to choose from, but the player that I think could have a big year that no one is talking about is Mark Trumbo. He’s coming off a year where he only hit for an average of .234, but he still hit for over 30 home runs and now he finds himself in a hitter’s park in Arizona. He’s got the potential to smash 40 home runs there and if he gets his average back up to around .270 you’ve got one heck of a steal in the outfield.

Matt Wincherauk – I’m going to go with Shin-Soo Choo here, just because he’s such a consistent player. Yes please I’ll take a player with a .300+ average, and a 20/20 guy, who should also benefit from playing in the Rangers ballpark.

4 – Which player will be a bust for Fantasy owners?

Jonathan – Yasiel Puig: We all know how talented Puig is, but a top 10 OF this year? You gotta be kidding me! In 2013, he hit .319 with 19 HRs, 66 R, 42 RBI and 11 SB in only 104 games. That means in 2014 with a full season he’s a good bet to go 30-20 with a .300 average right? Wrong!

If you look deeper, you will see regression coming up the wazoo. 0.383 BABIP, a contact rate of just 67%, a ground ball rate of over 50%, HR/FB% of 22%, the average will drop significantly this year and the power numbers should suffer as well. We saw that regression already coming when he only batted .214 in September and October.  As a top 10 OF, there is no benefit to grabbing Puig; he can’t possibly outperform his draft position. I’m letting someone else overdraft him and grabbing safer players at a value instead.

Ricky – Can I put Matt Kemp? Anyone that drafts him is in line for a huge disappointing season again. He is hurt again, may or may not start the season and could be on a short leash with the Dodgers having some depth in the OF. Another guy I won’t be drafting is Ryan Braun, while I believe he will be a nice fantasy option this year, I just don’t think he will match up to his ADP.

Matt Bell – The biggest bust that I see looking at the top of the OF rankings is Joey Bautista. He’s going to hit his home runs, but other than he doesn’t give you much value. He’s also missed games in every season but two that he has played in as a professional baseball player. Bautista just scares me as a player that can be taken way too high and spend more of the season on the DL than on the field.

Matt Wincherauk – Jose Bautista is my pick for being a bust this year. I think this is the year that we finally see Bautista fall off a bit from his usual gaudy power numbers. He’s constantly hurt, and his attitude doesn’t help him much either. I also wouldn’t be surprised if he’s a name being floated around in trade numbers.

5 – Give a bold prediction for one player.

Jonathan – Ryan Braun has his third 30/30 season in four years and finishes the year as a top 3 OF.

Ricky – Mike Trout finally wins the MVP? Okay that’s not bold. Matt Kemp won’t play more than 120 games, not bold really either. Give me Yoenis Cespedes to hit .265 with 32 HRs and 98 RBIS.

Matt Bell – The Bold predictions that I’ll make for the outfield position involves Giancarlo Stanton. He’s missed some time over the last couple of seasons with injuries, but this year he stays healthy. The prediction for me is that he will hit for 45 home runs and be one of the top 5 fantasy players at the outfield position

Matt Wincherauk – My prediction will be that Bryce Harper tops 30 home runs, and solidifies his spot as a top 5 outfielder, in that group of Trout, McCutchen and Gonzalez.

If you have any questions about the upcoming Fantasy Baseball season make sure to hope on over to twitter and ask. You can follow me @rickygangster @mattbell211 & @TheMattyWin and we will answer any and all questions.

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2014 Fantasy Baseball Outfield Rankings

MLB season is upon us and Fantasy Baseball is back and better than ever! Over the next few weeks we are planning on getting you ready for any of the upcoming Fantasy drafts that you have. This week we are sending out our initial 2014 rankings that will be updated as Spring Training progresses. The week after we are going to answer 5 questions about each position as well as giving you some insight into some players that we like as well. Matt Bell is joining me today as we rank the Outfield as well as take a look at one guy we like higher than his ADP and one we have lower than his ADP.

2014 Fantasy Baseball Outfield Rankings (as of 2/22/14)

Rank Ricky Valero Matt Bell
1 Mike Trout 
Mike Trout
2 Andrew McCutchen Andrew McCutchen
3 Yasiel Puig Carlos Gonzalez
4 Carlos Gonzalez Yasiel Puig
5 Jacoby Ellsbury Bryce Harper
6 Adam Jones Jacoby Ellsbury
7 Carlos Gomez GianCarlo Stanton
8 Bryce Harper Adam Jones
9 Ryan Braun  Jose Bautista
10 Giancarlo Stanton Hunter Pence
11 Jose Bautista Alex Rios
12 Alex Rios  Ryan Braun
13 Jay Bruce Shin Soo Choo
14 Hunter Pence Jay Bruce
15 Shin-Soo Choo Yoenis Cespedes
16 Yoenis Cespedes Justin Upton
17 Starlin Marte Starlin Marte
18 Justin Upton Carlos Gomez
19 Matt Kemp Allen Craig
20 Allen Craig Matt Holiday
21 Matt Holliday Matt Kemp
22 Domonic Brown Mark Trumbo
23 Wil Myers Domonic Brown
24 Jason Heyward Wil Myers
25 Carlos Beltran Michael Cuddyer
26 Mark Trumbo Alex Gordon
27 Ben Zobrist Jason Werth
28 Alex Gordon Josh Hamilton
29 Jayson Werth Carlos Beltran
30 Curtis Granderson Jason Heyward
31 Michael Cuddyer Curtis Granderson
32 Josh Hamilton Ben Zobrist
33 Desmond Jennings Austin Jackson
34 Shane Victorino Desmond Jennings
35 Martin Prado Christian Yelich
36 Billy Hamilton Shane Victorino
37 Alejandro De Aza Martin Prado
38 CoCo Crisp Billy Hamilton
39 Carl Crawford Alejandra De Aza
40 Alfonso Soriano Carl Crawford
41 Brandon Moss Coco Crisp
42 Christian Yelich Alfonso Soriano
43 Leonys Martin Brandon Moss
44 Brett Gardner Dexter Fowler
45 Josh Reddick Leonys martin
46 Will Venable  Nelson Cruz
47 Norichika Aoki Colby Rasmus
48 Austin Jackson Torii Hunter
49 Dexter Fowler Josh Reddick
50 Nelson Cruz BJ Upton
51 Ben Revere Will Venable
52 Nick Swisher Norichika Aoki
53 Adam Eaton Adam Eaton
54 Torii Hunter Nick Swisher
55 Michael Bourn Michael Bourn
56 Nick Markakis Nick Markakis
57 Michael Brantley Michael Brantley
58 Colby Rasmus Ben Revere
59 BJ Upton Khris Davis
60 Khris Davis Brett Gardner

Why I ranked (blank) higher than his Current ADP (ADP average comes from the rankings at Fantasypros.com)

Ricky – Yasiel Puig – Current ADP 10th – I have him ranked 3rd – Puig has the oppurtinuty to become one of the best outfielders in baseball. He has all the tools to do so and I think he will just add onto what he did in 2013. Puig is a 5 category guy and someone I would draft as high as 4th overall this year. In most drafts he will slip into the top half of round 2 and if you can get him on the 12-13 turn, you will not regret it.

Matt Bell – Giancarlo Stanton is going to be a steal in the outfield this year if you ask me. He’s got an ADP of 10th, but I’ll be snagging him ahead of some of the other guys people plan to take before him. He’s at 7th in my rankings and that’s simply because of the power he possesses. He’s been held back by injuries in his career, but if he gets a full season healthy 40 plus home runs is not out of reach.

Why I ranked (blank) lower than his current ADP.

Ricky – Bryce Harper – Current ADP 5 – I ranked him 8th – Harper was a disapointment this season and for some reason is being overdrafted this season. The price is too steep for a guy that really hasn’t lived up to potential.

Matt Bell – Carlos Gomez is a guy that I’m not very high on as he’s got an ADP of 9th, but can be found at 18th in my rankings. Gomez has had been getting better, but he strikes out a ton and one really good year is not enough for me to rank him ahead of some of the other outfielders in the league. I can even see him taking a step back in some of his stats next year.

In case you missed these, here are my Catcher Rankings (http://wp.me/p2MUTr-BY), 1st baseman (http://wp.me/p2MUTr-BZ), 2nd baseman rankings (http://wp.me/p2MUTr-C2), 3rd Baseman Rankings (http://wp.me/p2MUTr-C7) and Shortstop (http://wp.me/p2MUTr-Cb).

If you have any questions about the upcoming Fantasy Baseball season make sure to hope on over to twitter and ask. You can follow me @rickygangster and I will answer any and all questions.

Want to help support the Sports Script? You ever buy anything from Amazon? Just use our link and we get a little kick back to support the site! Sports Script Amazon Link