Draft Scripts: Using NFBC ADP’s to evaluate Corner Infield

Miggy's health will go a long way to determining his value in 2015.
Miggy’s health will go a long way in determining his 2015 value

Early average draft position results are not the bible, but in the midst of preseason rankings it helps to see where players are being selected. There is controversy every year, whether it be concerns over “fat” Mike Trout, where Kershaw will go or Miguel Cabrera’s health. Things have been quiet in Detroit and if the Tigers are indeed going for it this year, Cabrera will play. He proved that by playing hurt throughout September while putting up an epic stat line for the month:

Miguel Cabrera September 2014: 19 R, 8 HR, 18 RBI, .379/.409/.709, 1.118 OPS, 214 wRC+

The concern with Cabrera has gone from whether he should be the top pick to how far he falls in mocks. Early indications seem to suggest it is not as far as I would like, but I have seen him go in mocks as far back as number 8. Is there risk involved? Of course, but if he is on the field for the whole season he’ll be more than fine. Outside of Cabrera, a healthy Paul Goldschmidt and the return of old favorites Prince Fielder and Joey Votto make the position deep once again. In fact, it looks like power at the position can be had throughout. Anthony Rizzo seems primed to take another step forward and is climbing up rankings and draft lists. First base is making a comeback as a position of elite fantasy production.

On the other end of the spectrum is third base. With the loss of Miguel Cabrera and the lack of production top to bottom along with the volatility of the players at the position, it will be a tough sea to navigate this year. In looking at early data, it seems like you’ll have to take a third baseman in the top-100. Otherwise, just fill the position late and hope it pans out. In dealing with corner infielders, it appears most teams will be grabbing from the first base pool but there could be an advantage gained by grabbing two strong third baseman early and thinning the pool for your competitors if you can grab a Josh Donaldson and a Kyle Seager. This means another guy in your league may be forced to roster a Mike Moustakas at third, yuck. Have a plan and if you can force a run, it opens opportunity for you to get what you want. For starters, here are the first baseman taken in the top 200 in money NFBC drafts thus far:

1B NFBC ADP

There has never been a time to get such value on players like Prince Fielder and Joey Votto, but do you want to? If you could see their credentials without the names attached, would that change your mind? With credit to Matthew Berry of ESPN, I love his use of blind analysis to take the name value out of the equation and simply focus on the numbers. I will use Steamer projections as a guide for this exercise:

Player A: 79 R, 20 HR, 71 RBI, 4 SB, .280/.409/.473
Player B: 77 R, 23 HR, 73 RBI, 6 SB, .270/.349/.464

Sure, you are giving up some OBP and a pittance in slugging percentage but are the numbers really that different? Drafters say yes since player A is being drafted on average at pick number 79.85 while player B is outside of the top 200. One more:

Player C: 73 R, 20 HR, 79 RBI, 2 SB, .295/.353/.484
Player D: 81 R, 24 HR, 86 RBI, 1 SB, .282/.380/.483

Player D is going at pick number 69 and player C is being selected on average at pick 166.69, I cannot make this up. I sort of played my hand in the intro to this exercise but here are the players:

Player A: Joey Votto
Player B: Steve Pearce
Player C: Justin Morneau
Player D: Prince Fielder

See what I am saying? If I put those names in front of you without the numbers are you changing how you look at them? Something to think about. Just like with Miguel Cabrera, until he comes out and says he is hampered by the injury and may miss time, I am taking him. If he is there at pick 8, I will be ecstatic. I do like Freddie Freeman and he had an impressive 2014 but have you looked at the lineup surrounding him? There are several other players I like more than most, too. Carlos Santana is one of them. If left alone to play first base after the failed move to third should bounce back this year. He’ll be third base eligible in 2015 too! Adam LaRoche is a forgotten entity as well. He’s in Chicago now, hitting after Jose Abreu and will hit 30 home runs this year. I’ll pass on Joey Votto and Prince Fielder. Let them be someone else’s problem, I just can’t trust either slugger. Here are the top 20 first baseman taken in the first 200 with their Steamer projections included. I highlighted the leaders in the four counting statistical categories as well:

1B Steamer Projections

While first base is getting deeper, third base is as murky as the situation in New York. With the pending return of Alex Rodriguez and his albatross of a contract, the Yankees signed Chase Headley to a four-year pact. If you want to take a chance on A-Rod being a fantasy asset in 2015, be my guest, but I will be watching from afar. Anthony Rendon was a favorite target of mine in 2014 due to his value in drafts but the gig is up. Rendon is going at pick number 14 in the drafts used for this article and that may be too steep a price. Like Carlos Santana, Rendon does have dual eligibility along with Todd Frazier but people may be pushing them up too far. Don’t get me wrong, Rendon has the talent and lineup to be successful but there are warning signs about taking him too soon. He hit 21 home runs in 2014 but 12 of them are rated “just enough” and of those 12, 3 more had “lucky” attached as well. I am not saying he will regress but to plan on more than 18 home runs may be aggressive.

Donaldson and his fantasy value head north with his trade to Toronto.
Donaldson and his fantasy value head north with his trade to Toronto

I think Josh Donaldson’s move to Toronto should allow him to thrive and finish as fantasy’s top third baseman in 2015. However, he is being taken at the end of the second or beginning of the third in NFBC money drafts. This number may climb but if it does not, pounce. Here are what the ADP’s for third baseman look like so far:

3B NFBC ADP

It seems that Evan Longoria is finally being valued correctly, but look at the precipitous drop for David Wright. He is teetering at the edge of the top 100 which means he is finally a value pick. But is this name value again? He is an injury risk but the Mets should have a chance to at least compete for a wild card spot with the pitching depth they have. How about another blind comparison?

Player A: 69 R, 17 HR, 68 RBI, 6 SB, .257/.343/.413
Player B: 67 R, 16 HR, 66 RBI, 9 SB, .275/.347/.432

Not too far apart on value but player B is on the outside of the top 200 even after Martin Prado while player A is David Wright. Player B is his New York counterpart. Yes, Chase Headley. Here are the Steamer projections for the third baseman drafted in the top 200:
3B Steamer Projections

Navigating third base will be interesting but while some values exist, people will be reaching for name value like Evan Longoria and Chris Carpenter. One surprise is Kris Bryant going at pick number 105 without yet being named the starting third baseman for the Cubs. Could he return a profit at this spot? Yes, but that is a fine line to walk. I like Nolan Arenado to take a step forward this year but so does everyone else. Kyle Seager should thrive in the improved Seattle lineup and he was already profiled here. If healthy, Manny Machado is a steal at 148.69. Players outside of the top 200 that I like include Nick Castellanos, Aramis Ramirez and Jake Lamb.

Corner infield is setting itself up for a bounce back in 2015 but there are as many questions as there are locks. Good luck avoiding the land mines. Throw name value out the window and try to see a player for who he really is using the numbers.

Statistical credits: Baseball-Reference.com, Fangraphs.com, NFBC.com
Photo cred: http://goo.gl/VEC1jj (Cabrera), http://goo.gl/IBmCX9 (Donaldson)

Check out FantasyRundown.com for all of our latest articles and other great fantasy content.

Greg Jewett is The Sports Script’s senior fantasy baseball writer. Follow him on Twitter @gjewett9!

Advertisements

Top DFS Plays for 08/29/14

*Top hitters and pitchers highlight exceptional matchups that may include stars, lesser-known players and those on your waiver wires.

When I put together my top hitters and pitchers I factor in several things. First, prior matchup history, whether the hitter is hot and the pitcher’s history against that type of batter. Also, these matchups are normally released in the morning so make sure that you double-check the weather leading up to games in case they were postponed or the player got the day off.

New to Daily Fantasy? Head over to FanDuel.com and use Promo Code SCRIPT and get 100% match on your first deposit!

Top DFS hitters for today:

Neil Walker/Josh Harrison/ Russell Martin vs. Mike Leake – All batting above .300 with a HR against Leake
Leake is 1-0 with a 5.03 ERA against the Pirates in 3 starts. I really like this matchup for the above hitters.

Derek Jeter/Ichiro Suzuki vs. Mark Buehrle – Both guys are hitting better than .345 against Buehrle on their careers.
Buehrle also has a 6.89 ERA against the Yankees this season. I actually don’t hate stacking a bunch of Yankees today.

Jose Abreu vs. Justin Verlander – hitting .444 (4/9) with 2 HRs & 2 RBIs
In 3 games against JV, Abreu has taken him deep twice. Can he make it a 3rd time? I believe so.

Aramis Ramirez vs. Ryan Vogelsong – hitting .381 (8/21) with 2 HRs, 2 RBIs & a BB

Mark Trumbo vs. Christian Bergman – no previous history.
RHH vs. Bergman in his 4 starts are hitting .377 with 5 HRs

Ricky’s HR Guarantee: Jose Abreu  & Mark Trumbo

Top DFS Pitcher for today:

 Jon Lester vs. LA Angels – Lester went 7 innings, only giving up 5 hits and 1 run with 7 Ks in his last outing against the Angels. I look for him to have around the same success tonight as well.

Movie of the Day – Remember The Titans – Denzel is easily one of the my favorite actors and in this movie he showed why. This movie is hands down one of the best sports movies of all-time.

Follow me on Twitter @Rickygangster!

The Sports Script Fan Duel MLB Lineup for 04/16

Who is excited baseball is back????? I know I am which also means that Daily Fantasy Baseball is back as well. I really enjoy DFS Baseball as it keeps you even more involved and keeps you up to date with guys you normally wouldn’t care about.

I hope you had a similar lineup last night as I posted. Very successful for me yesterday even with all the rain outs. Let’s follow it up with another good day today.

Well everything I am going to bring you my lineup in which I am playing over at FanDuel.com – Which if you haven’t joined just click this link here: http://partners.fanduel.com/processing/clickthrgh.asp?btag=a_3360b_2

I am going to bring you the lineup I feel is the best for you to bring home some $$$ for the day. Early on we are fighting the guessing game but riding some of the guys hot bats to start the season.

The Sports Script Fan Duel MLB Lineup for 04/16

Check back throughout the day as I will either alter or add more lineups to choose from.

 

lineup

Here are a few reasons why I like these matchups.

Andrew Cashner vs. Colorado Rockies – 8-6 with a 2.54 ERA and 79 Ks at home. Love this matchup for Cashner today.

Pablo Sandoval vs. Paul Malhom – hitting .375 (6/16) with a 2B, 2 HRs & 5 RBIs

Justin Upton vs. Cliff Lee – hitting .304 (7/23) with 3 2Bs, a RBI & a BB
Upton is hitting .500 over the past week with 4 homers and 8 RBIs. He has a tough matchup today but Lee has struggled so far this year and Upton has the hot bat.

Don’t forget to tune into the Fantasy Forecaster each and every Wednesday at 9 PM EST here: http://www.blogtalkradio.com/foryourconsideration or download the show on iTunes by clicking the link here. https://itunes.apple.com/podcast/the-sports-script/id850876078?mt=2

The Sports Script Fan Duel MLB Lineup for 04/01

Who is excited baseball is back????? I know I am which also means that Daily Fantasy Baseball is back as well. I really enjoy DFS Baseball as it keeps you even more involved and keeps you up to date with guys you normally wouldn’t care about.

Well everything I am going to bring you my lineup in which I am playing over at FanDuel.com – Which if you haven’t joined just click this link here: https://www.fanduel.com/?invitedby=rickygangster&cnl=da – But I am going to give you the lineup I think is going to give you the best chance to win. Early on in the season you are really playing a guessing game but you can look at each player’s previous history against these pitchers and the bigger the sample size and the history of success rate, will help you decide who you should start. Now throughout the day up until the 1st pitch of the first game I may change or alter my lineup depending on weather and possible late scratches, so make sure to check back throughout the day.

lineup

Here are my thoughts on a few of the starts.

C.J. Wilson is my go to Starting Pitcher today. Over the last 3 years he is 8-2 with a 2.14 ERA with 77 Ks against the Mariners. The success and the volume is there and is an easy start today.

Aaron Hill vs. Matt Cain – Hill is hitting .333 (9/27) with a HR and 3 RBIs in his career against Cain.

André Ethier vs. Ian Kennedy – hitting .357 (10/28) with 2 HRs and 5 RBIs. Nice sample size here and the $3200 price tag is rather cheap.

Mark Trumbo – He has started the 2014 season red-hot with 6 RBIs in his 1st 3 games. I like him a ton today.

Don’t forget to tune into the Fantasy Forecaster each and every Wednesday at 9 PM EST here: http://www.blogtalkradio.com/foryourconsideration

5 Questions Surrounding Fantasy Baseball Outfielders

The MLB season is upon us which means it is time for the Fantasy Baseball season. We here at the Sports Script want to do everything possible in setting you up for draft day and helping you throughout the season to win a Fantasy Baseball Championship. We are gathering a team of Sports Script writers as well as some special guest to answer 5 key questions about each position for the upcoming 2014 Fantasy Baseball Season. Today we have gathered myself (Ricky Valero), Matt Bell, Matt Wincherauk and special guest Jonathan (@Jonathan_TTF) from Top Team Fantasy (@TopTeamFantasy) as we are going to take a look at the Outfield.

5 Questions surrounding Fantasy Baseball Outfielders

1 – Which player or players are you targeting?

Jonathan – Carlos Beltran: Everyone always looks for the sexy guys like Yasiel Puig (more on him later) and Billy Hamilton, but you win your leagues by grabbing those value players like Beltran. He’s 36 years old, but based on his 10th round ADP; I love the 8-time all-star who is moving from a tough ballpark to a launching pad in New York (check this out for a great read on the subject). He’s been more durable than you may thing in his last three seasons and will be almost a lock for a 25 HR season. I’d be shocked if he finishes outside the top 20 OFs.

Ricky – Unlike my buddy Jonathan and many others that I have had some nice chats about in the past, Yasiel Puig is a guy I not only want on my team, I am willing to reach in the middle of the 1st round for the guy. If you are drafting around the 5th or 6th spot in this year’s draft there is a bunch of uncertainty. After Cabrera and Trout, the field is wide open. Now I think Goldschmidt is a shoe-in at #3 but after him you have McCutchen, Cano and Davis lined up right after all of whom have some serious questions. If you are drafting 4th-6th you are more than likely not going to have a chance at Puig in round 2. I present the following things to you.

He ranked 6th in batting average (Min. 400 PA)
He scored 66 runs in only 104 games
His 19 HRs/382 PA (20.1% AB/HR) ranked 25th in baseball
12th in OBP (.391) higher than Cano/Davis/Beltre/Ramirez
His 160 wRC+ was 4th in baseball and was 60 points higher than the league average
Of the 56 players with over a 20% K% only 5 players hit .300 or better last year. Only Chris Johnson had a higher batting average than Puig did.

That’s all from a guy in his first season in the MLB. While there is talks questioning is work ethic (he’s “30” pounds heavier) or questioning his “character” but I am taking him based on his talent. End of story.

Matt Bell – If I have one of the top picks in any of my drafts I’ll be targeting Mike Trout who I think is primed for another huge year. That pick is obvious, so the other outfielders that I’ll be looking to target include Bryce Harper and Josh Hamilton. Harper is no secret to any fantasy player as he’s burst onto the scene pretty quickly in the past two years. He spent some time on the DL last year which really hurt his numbers. I see Harper if healthy hitting for an average of .275 with 30 home runs and over 20 stolen bases. Josh Hamilton probably makes some people throw up in their mouth hearing his name, but I really think he’s primed for a bounce back year.  Hamilton is going to have a ton of value at the spot he will fall to in most drafts. He’s coming off his worst year hitting for an average of .250 with only 21 home runs. Hamilton will improve over last year and being ranked 32nd in the ESPN rankings leads me to believe he can be had in the later rounds of most fantasy drafts.

Matt Wincherauk – Mike Trout. Not adventurous enough? Fine. I’ll go with Bryce Harper here. I feel like he’s about to really break out, like many thought he would last year before injuries got to him. More on him in a later question.

2 – Which player are you staying away from?

Jonathan – Curtis Granderson: We just spoke about the impact of Beltran moving to Yankee stadium, well Granderson leaving Yankee stadium will have an opposite effect. Here’s his home/away splits since joining the Yankees (given in per 100 AB numbers):

Home: 19.75 R, 7.03 HR, 17.41 RBI, 2.9 SB, 0.254 AVG
Away: 18.75 R, 5.8 HR, 16.85 RBI, 3.24 SB, 0.236 AVG

As you would expect, his power was significantly down on the road, and moving to a more neutral park (Citi Field) will only make matters worse for the aging (former) star, not to mention the stark difference in lineup around him. He’s already 33 years old and is coming off a year in which he was limited to only 61 games, so you’d have a hard time convincing me a comeback year is in the works. Don’t let his name value trick you into overpaying for Granderson on draft day.

Ricky – Bryce Harper – He is being over drafted in so many leagues this year and it’s insane. He started off with a Monster April last season and boom just died for months on end. He struggles really badly against lefties as seen below.

Vs. LHP – 131 AB – 12 R – 25 H – 2 HR – 16 RBI – .214 BA – .327 OBP

I think this is a make or break season for Harper if he is going to be among the élite Fantasy outfielders or not. With a current ADP of 12, I am staying as far away from Harper as I can.

Matt Bell – The player I’m staying away from is Carlos Gomez as he was much in the spot light for the Brewers last year with Braun hurt. I think Gomez is going to struggle to hit anywhere close to the .280 mark he hit for last year. The previous years he hadn’t hit anywhere close to that mark with .260 being his highest average. He has some power, but I don’t expect him to hit over 20 home runs next year and he just won’t be able to justify his early draft pick status.

Matt Wincherauk – I’m avoiding Ellsbury like I talked about in the first question. His power numbers might benefit from being in New York, but he is the biggest injury risk in baseball, and I can’t trust him. That and he’s a little traitor.

3 – Who is the biggest sleeper heading into 2014?

Jonathan – Melky Cabrera: How much of Melky’s excellent 2011 and 2012 seasons were due to steroids? We’ll probably never know. But the hate has gone too far. Melky was drafted as a top 25 OF last year, and although he’s coming off a terrible year that was largely due to injuries. He’s still going to be starting in left and looks likely to be starting in the #2 hole. There is absolutely no reason not to gamble on him considering his 281.7 ADP (79th OF).

Ricky – Khris Davis is someone I really have an eye on in all my upcoming drafts. He is coming off the board in the 15th-17th round right now and I think he has a much higher ceiling than that. He hit a pretty solid .279 and hit 11 homers in 136 ABs which equated to 1 in every 12 at bats. While it’ll be tough for him to match those types of numbers in 2014 but even if he balloons to 1 in 20, he will still hit 20+ HRs, hit for a decent average and may even steal you a few bags. I would take him in the 12th or 13th round ahead of guys like Michael Bourn and Torii Hunter.

Matt Bell – The biggest sleeper in the outfield is tough as there are just so many players to choose from, but the player that I think could have a big year that no one is talking about is Mark Trumbo. He’s coming off a year where he only hit for an average of .234, but he still hit for over 30 home runs and now he finds himself in a hitter’s park in Arizona. He’s got the potential to smash 40 home runs there and if he gets his average back up to around .270 you’ve got one heck of a steal in the outfield.

Matt Wincherauk – I’m going to go with Shin-Soo Choo here, just because he’s such a consistent player. Yes please I’ll take a player with a .300+ average, and a 20/20 guy, who should also benefit from playing in the Rangers ballpark.

4 – Which player will be a bust for Fantasy owners?

Jonathan – Yasiel Puig: We all know how talented Puig is, but a top 10 OF this year? You gotta be kidding me! In 2013, he hit .319 with 19 HRs, 66 R, 42 RBI and 11 SB in only 104 games. That means in 2014 with a full season he’s a good bet to go 30-20 with a .300 average right? Wrong!

If you look deeper, you will see regression coming up the wazoo. 0.383 BABIP, a contact rate of just 67%, a ground ball rate of over 50%, HR/FB% of 22%, the average will drop significantly this year and the power numbers should suffer as well. We saw that regression already coming when he only batted .214 in September and October.  As a top 10 OF, there is no benefit to grabbing Puig; he can’t possibly outperform his draft position. I’m letting someone else overdraft him and grabbing safer players at a value instead.

Ricky – Can I put Matt Kemp? Anyone that drafts him is in line for a huge disappointing season again. He is hurt again, may or may not start the season and could be on a short leash with the Dodgers having some depth in the OF. Another guy I won’t be drafting is Ryan Braun, while I believe he will be a nice fantasy option this year, I just don’t think he will match up to his ADP.

Matt Bell – The biggest bust that I see looking at the top of the OF rankings is Joey Bautista. He’s going to hit his home runs, but other than he doesn’t give you much value. He’s also missed games in every season but two that he has played in as a professional baseball player. Bautista just scares me as a player that can be taken way too high and spend more of the season on the DL than on the field.

Matt Wincherauk – Jose Bautista is my pick for being a bust this year. I think this is the year that we finally see Bautista fall off a bit from his usual gaudy power numbers. He’s constantly hurt, and his attitude doesn’t help him much either. I also wouldn’t be surprised if he’s a name being floated around in trade numbers.

5 – Give a bold prediction for one player.

Jonathan – Ryan Braun has his third 30/30 season in four years and finishes the year as a top 3 OF.

Ricky – Mike Trout finally wins the MVP? Okay that’s not bold. Matt Kemp won’t play more than 120 games, not bold really either. Give me Yoenis Cespedes to hit .265 with 32 HRs and 98 RBIS.

Matt Bell – The Bold predictions that I’ll make for the outfield position involves Giancarlo Stanton. He’s missed some time over the last couple of seasons with injuries, but this year he stays healthy. The prediction for me is that he will hit for 45 home runs and be one of the top 5 fantasy players at the outfield position

Matt Wincherauk – My prediction will be that Bryce Harper tops 30 home runs, and solidifies his spot as a top 5 outfielder, in that group of Trout, McCutchen and Gonzalez.

If you have any questions about the upcoming Fantasy Baseball season make sure to hope on over to twitter and ask. You can follow me @rickygangster @mattbell211 & @TheMattyWin and we will answer any and all questions.

Want to help support the Sports Script? You ever buy anything from Amazon? Just use our link and we get a little kick back to support the site! Sports Script Amazon Link

5 Questions Surrounding Fantasy Baseball 1st Baseman

The MLB season is upon us which means it is time for the Fantasy Baseball season. We here at the Sports Script want to do everything possible in setting you up for draft day and helping you throughout the season to win a Fantasy Baseball Championship. We are gathering a team of Sports Script writers as well as some special guest to answer 5 key questions about each position for the upcoming 2014 Fantasy Baseball Season. Today we have gathered me (Ricky Valero), Matt Wincherauk, Matt Bell and special guest Ricky Sanders (@RsandersFR) from Fakeroundball.com ( @FakeRoundball) as we are going to take a look at the 1st base.

5 Questions surrounding Fantasy 1st Baseman

1 – Which player or players are you targeting?

R. Sanders – Early in the draft, I love Cabrera and Goldschmidt, but think Encarnacion comes at a much better value with an ADP of 14 picks later. I rank Encarnacion in my top 8 overall. However, the player I’m targeting the most at the first base position is Matt Adams. With a full-time gig locked up, I expect huge numbers in his second season. Others I like at their ADP: Adrian Gonzalez, Mark Trumbo, Jose Abreu and Napoli.

Ricky – Of course if you have the likes of Paul Goldschmidt (my 3rd overall player) or Chris Davis, you’d be set at the position. But one guy I am targeting is Prince Fielder. He moves to hitter friendly park in Texas and he will have Beltre hitting behind him as well. Fielder will have a monster season.

Matt Wincherauk – I want Prince Fielder. The power hitting big man should benefit greatly from moving to Arlington, a place that he probably should’ve gone to in the first place. The Rangers offense looks to poised to rip through the entire AL and Prince will be one of the big catalysts.

Matt Bell – I think you have to say everyone is going to be looking at Paul Goldschmidt as their top 1B this year in fantasy, but for me if I can’t snag him early it’s going to be Prince Fielder. I think his value has dropped a little after a down year for him. He’s going to be playing in Arlington now and that is a hitter’s park, so I expect his homerun numbers to go up this year. If I can get Fielder a couple of rounds after Goldy goes I’ll be a very happy fantasy player.

2 – Which player are you staying away from?

R. Sanders – Pujols’ bad foot has me worried about his prospects once again this season. He’s no longer the .300/30/100 guarantee he was at the beginning of his career. I’d rather take Allen Craig and Adrian Gonzalez who are going later.

Ricky – Joey Votto – While the runs and hits were nice he had a huge dip in his ISO, BABIP, OBP and SLG which all are cause for concern. While he has potential to be a solid Fantasy contributor I for one am staying away this season.

Matt Wincherauk – Adrian Gonzalez is who I’m going to be avoiding for the most part. He’s experienced big time drop offs in his power in the past few years, ironically ever since he left Petco Park and went to Fenway. He’ll give a good average, but I want more out of a higher pick.

Matt Bell – I don’t care where the value is in Albert Pujols, but I’m staying as far away from him as possibly this year. He’s been awful for the most part since leaving St. Louis and I’m just not willing to take a chance on him this year. He’s going to have to stay healthy before I’ll consider him in future fantasy drafts.

3 – Who is the biggest sleeper heading into 2014?

R. Sanders – The biggest sleeper, like I mentioned in the opening, is Matt Adams. If you already drafted Adams and wanted another shot in the dark, I’d recommend Brandon Belt. This year, he should surpass his career high 509 AB from last year which could result in a .285+ BA/20+ HR/10+ STL type season. His current ADP is 137.

Ricky – Jose Abreu – While a ton of people won’t know who he is entering draft day, they really should. This guy can hit the ball and will do so this season. During the 2010-11 Cuban National Series He hit .453 with 79 runs, 93 RBI and 33 home runs in only 66 games. I like him to have a 20-25 HR season and finish among the top 1st baseman in 2014.

Matt Wincherauk – Jose Abreu is a popular choice, and for good reason. He may be unproven, but he’s got all the tools that made a guy like Yasiel Puig a megastar in an instant.

Matt Bell – The biggest sleeper this year is going to be Matt Adams as we saw some small flashes of what he could do last year when given playing time. The Cardinals have made room for him to be an everyday player now which makes him someone I will be very high on this year at the 1B position.

4 – Which player will be a bust for Fantasy owners?

R Sanders – Besides Pujols, I think taking Chris Davis inside the top 10 could result in a big fantasy bust. 53 HR could very easily end up being a career high for Davis. I don’t like taking a player who most likely won’t produce élite batting average, steals or runs scored numbers that early. If his HR/RBI numbers drop to around 35/100, he wasn’t worth the price. I feel more comfortable taking him in the second round.

Ricky – Chris Davis – People will draft him off what he did last year and rightfully so but I think he sees a decline in the numbers but still has a solid season. But he just doesn’t match his number to justify a 1st round selection.

Matt Wincherauk – Mark Trumbo is my choice here. He’s been on the decline for a few years here in terms of his plate discipline and his average as well. He’s not someone who I’m going to trust, and looks prime to be a bust.

Matt Bell – The player I’m fully expecting to be a bust this year will be Chris Davis. He will still have a good year I believe, but nowhere near the type of season he had last year. I’ve saw him going in the 1st round of some mock drafts and he will not live up to that position. I won’t be surprised to see him struggle to hit 40 home runs next year.

5 – Give a bold prediction for one player.

R Sanders – My bold prediction is for Matt Adams. With a full season of playing time, I think he could go .285, 30, 100 RBI with around 85 runs. I rank him inside my top 10 at first base even though 14 are being drafted before him at the position.

Ricky – Albert Pujols will hit 34 HRs this season. I think he still has a few good seasons left in him and coming off an injury/disappointing season, he should bounce back well.

Matt Wincherauk – Paul Goldschmidt will lead the NL in both homeruns, and RBIs and will fall short of the triple crown only in the average area. That is arguably the next best all-around hitter besides Miguel Cabrera.

Matt Bell – The bold prediction for the 1B position is that Anthony Rizzo will bounce back in a huge way this year hitting over 30 home runs and have an average of around .290 on the year.

If you have any questions about the upcoming Fantasy Baseball season make sure to hope on over to twitter and ask. You can follow me @rickygangster @mattbell211 & @TheMattyWin and we will answer any and all questions.

Want to help support the Sports Script? You ever buy anything from Amazon? Just use our link and we get a little kick back to support the site! Sports Script Amazon Link

2014 Fantasy Baseball Outfield Rankings

MLB season is upon us and Fantasy Baseball is back and better than ever! Over the next few weeks we are planning on getting you ready for any of the upcoming Fantasy drafts that you have. This week we are sending out our initial 2014 rankings that will be updated as Spring Training progresses. The week after we are going to answer 5 questions about each position as well as giving you some insight into some players that we like as well. Matt Bell is joining me today as we rank the Outfield as well as take a look at one guy we like higher than his ADP and one we have lower than his ADP.

2014 Fantasy Baseball Outfield Rankings (as of 2/22/14)

Rank Ricky Valero Matt Bell
1 Mike Trout 
Mike Trout
2 Andrew McCutchen Andrew McCutchen
3 Yasiel Puig Carlos Gonzalez
4 Carlos Gonzalez Yasiel Puig
5 Jacoby Ellsbury Bryce Harper
6 Adam Jones Jacoby Ellsbury
7 Carlos Gomez GianCarlo Stanton
8 Bryce Harper Adam Jones
9 Ryan Braun  Jose Bautista
10 Giancarlo Stanton Hunter Pence
11 Jose Bautista Alex Rios
12 Alex Rios  Ryan Braun
13 Jay Bruce Shin Soo Choo
14 Hunter Pence Jay Bruce
15 Shin-Soo Choo Yoenis Cespedes
16 Yoenis Cespedes Justin Upton
17 Starlin Marte Starlin Marte
18 Justin Upton Carlos Gomez
19 Matt Kemp Allen Craig
20 Allen Craig Matt Holiday
21 Matt Holliday Matt Kemp
22 Domonic Brown Mark Trumbo
23 Wil Myers Domonic Brown
24 Jason Heyward Wil Myers
25 Carlos Beltran Michael Cuddyer
26 Mark Trumbo Alex Gordon
27 Ben Zobrist Jason Werth
28 Alex Gordon Josh Hamilton
29 Jayson Werth Carlos Beltran
30 Curtis Granderson Jason Heyward
31 Michael Cuddyer Curtis Granderson
32 Josh Hamilton Ben Zobrist
33 Desmond Jennings Austin Jackson
34 Shane Victorino Desmond Jennings
35 Martin Prado Christian Yelich
36 Billy Hamilton Shane Victorino
37 Alejandro De Aza Martin Prado
38 CoCo Crisp Billy Hamilton
39 Carl Crawford Alejandra De Aza
40 Alfonso Soriano Carl Crawford
41 Brandon Moss Coco Crisp
42 Christian Yelich Alfonso Soriano
43 Leonys Martin Brandon Moss
44 Brett Gardner Dexter Fowler
45 Josh Reddick Leonys martin
46 Will Venable  Nelson Cruz
47 Norichika Aoki Colby Rasmus
48 Austin Jackson Torii Hunter
49 Dexter Fowler Josh Reddick
50 Nelson Cruz BJ Upton
51 Ben Revere Will Venable
52 Nick Swisher Norichika Aoki
53 Adam Eaton Adam Eaton
54 Torii Hunter Nick Swisher
55 Michael Bourn Michael Bourn
56 Nick Markakis Nick Markakis
57 Michael Brantley Michael Brantley
58 Colby Rasmus Ben Revere
59 BJ Upton Khris Davis
60 Khris Davis Brett Gardner

Why I ranked (blank) higher than his Current ADP (ADP average comes from the rankings at Fantasypros.com)

Ricky – Yasiel Puig – Current ADP 10th – I have him ranked 3rd – Puig has the oppurtinuty to become one of the best outfielders in baseball. He has all the tools to do so and I think he will just add onto what he did in 2013. Puig is a 5 category guy and someone I would draft as high as 4th overall this year. In most drafts he will slip into the top half of round 2 and if you can get him on the 12-13 turn, you will not regret it.

Matt Bell – Giancarlo Stanton is going to be a steal in the outfield this year if you ask me. He’s got an ADP of 10th, but I’ll be snagging him ahead of some of the other guys people plan to take before him. He’s at 7th in my rankings and that’s simply because of the power he possesses. He’s been held back by injuries in his career, but if he gets a full season healthy 40 plus home runs is not out of reach.

Why I ranked (blank) lower than his current ADP.

Ricky – Bryce Harper – Current ADP 5 – I ranked him 8th – Harper was a disapointment this season and for some reason is being overdrafted this season. The price is too steep for a guy that really hasn’t lived up to potential.

Matt Bell – Carlos Gomez is a guy that I’m not very high on as he’s got an ADP of 9th, but can be found at 18th in my rankings. Gomez has had been getting better, but he strikes out a ton and one really good year is not enough for me to rank him ahead of some of the other outfielders in the league. I can even see him taking a step back in some of his stats next year.

In case you missed these, here are my Catcher Rankings (http://wp.me/p2MUTr-BY), 1st baseman (http://wp.me/p2MUTr-BZ), 2nd baseman rankings (http://wp.me/p2MUTr-C2), 3rd Baseman Rankings (http://wp.me/p2MUTr-C7) and Shortstop (http://wp.me/p2MUTr-Cb).

If you have any questions about the upcoming Fantasy Baseball season make sure to hope on over to twitter and ask. You can follow me @rickygangster and I will answer any and all questions.

Want to help support the Sports Script? You ever buy anything from Amazon? Just use our link and we get a little kick back to support the site! Sports Script Amazon Link

2014 Fantasy Baseball 1st Base Rankings

MLB season is upon us and Fantasy Baseball is back and better than ever! Over the next few weeks we are planning on getting you ready for any of the upcoming Fantasy drafts that you have. This week we are sending out our initial 2014 rankings that we will updated as Spring Training progresses. The week after we are going to answer 5 questions about each position as well as giving you some insight into some players that we like as well. Matt Bell joins me today as we unveil our 1st base rankings as well as take a look at one guy we like higher than his ADP and one we have lower than his ADP.

2014 Fantasy Baseball 1st Base rankings (as of 02/18/14)

Ricky Valero Matt Bell
Rank Player  Player
1 Paul Goldschmidt
Paul Goldschmidt
2 Chris Davis  Prince Fielder
3 Prince Fielder Joey Votto
4 Edwin Encarnacion Freddie Freeman
5 Joey Votto Allen Craig
6 Freddie Freeman Chris Davis
7 Adrian Gonzalez Edwin Encarnacion 
8 Eric Hosmer Eric Hosmer
9 Albert Pujols Adrian Gonzalez
10 Buster Posey Buster Posey
11 Allen Craig Mark Trumbo
12 Brandon Belt Anthony Rizzo
13 Carlos Santana Brandon Belt
14 Mark Trumbo Carlos Santana
15 Jose Abreau Ryan Howard
16 Mark Teixeira Albert Pujols
17 Anthony Rizzo Matt Adams
18 Brandon Moss Mark Teixeira
19 Matt Adams Mike Napoli
20 Kendrys Morales Brandon Moss
21 James Loney James Loney
22 Mike Napoli Jose Abreu
23 Adam Lind Justin Morneau
24 Justin Morneau Kendry Morales
25 Ryan Howard Adam Lind
26 Yonder Alonso Yonder Alonso
27 Corey Hart Chris Carter
28 Adam LaRoche Adam LaRoche
29 Ike Davis Cory Hart
30 Chris Carter Ike Davis

Why I ranked (blank) higher than his Current ADP (ADP average comes from the rankings at Fantasypros.com)

Ricky – Adrian Gonzalez – He has an ADP of 11th overall at 1st base and I have him sitting at #7. Gonzalez has been very consistent fantasy option over the last 3 seasons averaging .310, 190 hits, 22 HRs, 108 RBIs and 84 runs. While he doesn’t show the power he once had, he is in a very potent offense in which he is batting cleanup in and he should easily see his numbers duplicate what they were a year ago.

Matt Bell – Allen Craig is a guy I’m higher on that most people as he’s 5th in my ranking while carrying an ADP of 11th among 1B. Craig missed some time due to injury, but if he can stay healthy at his age I think he can carry your fantasy team. He’s hit for an average of .306 in his career and could go over 100 RBI’s this year in the Cardinals Line up.

Why I ranked (blank) lower than his current ADP.

Ricky – Anthony Rizzo – Current ADP is 15th and I have him ranked 17th. It’s really not that much of difference but he has a big upside to him if he lowers his strike outs. I don’t see that happening. In his 1st full season he struck out far too much for my likening and honestly would rather have a guy like Jose Abreu or Brandon Belt who are being drafted 2-3 round later.

Matt Bell – Albert Pujols has a ADP of place 7 while in my rankings you will find him ranked 16th. I’m not high on Pujols at all this year as he’s battled injuries the last year and is only getting older. I firmly believe there is something wrong with him that will keep him from ever performing at the high levels he use to. Is Albert Pujols going to be a terrible player this year? No, probably not, but he’s going to hit .300 and justify a top 5 round pick in my book.

Yesterday I started with my Catchers and you can check them out here:  http://wp.me/p2MUTr-BY

If you have any questions about the upcoming Fantasy Baseball season make sure to hope on over to twitter and ask. You can follow me @rickygangster  and Matt Bell @Mattbell211 and we will answer any and all questions.

Want to help support the Sports Script? You ever buy anything from Amazon? Just use our link and we get a little kick back to support the site! Sports Script Amazon Link