The Extra Attacker: Trendy Transactions

We’re now a third of the way through the hockey season. Hopefully you’re faring better than Craig MacTavish is with his “bold move” approach of turning the Edmonton Oilers into the Oakland Raiders (see fire, dumpster). If not, and you’re looking to add a few key players to bolster your roster as we approach the new year, you should be looking at these factors: average time on ice (TOI), power play minutes and probably most important, a skater’s current line mates. On-ice chemistry is the key, as a move from the 3rd line center to 1st line left wing could make all the difference in the world from a fantasy perspective. Here are 3 players that are trending upward right now:

Alex Galchenyuk, Montreal Canadiens: The third pick behind Nail Yakupov and Ryan Murray in the 2012 NHL Entry Draft (would you like a redo Craig MacTavish?), Galchenyuk, a natural center, has been up and down Montreal’s lineup at varying positions. It seems he may have finally found his way as Montreal’s top-line pivot. Here are his line mates:

Habs Line Combo
Over the last week, Michel Therrien may have finally figured this whole line combo out. Pacioretty, a bona fide sniper and 30 goal-scorer was recently split up with his longtime centerman David Desharnais and placed on the top line with Galchenyuk and Gallagher. Gallagher is a scrappy right winger who plays big despite his small stature, while doing the line’s dirty work.

Galchenyuk is currently owned in just 43% of Y! leagues and is a must add at this point. Fresh off of a hat trick, Galchenyuk is averaging 1:57 PP time per game. We will likely see that number continue to rise, as he is now a member of the top power play unit as well. 525 owners have added him in the last 24 hours, make sure you’re in that group.

Mika Zibanejad, Ottawa Senators: The 21 year-old Zibanejad, 6th overall pick in the 2011 NHL Entry Draft has been on fire of late late, scoring 5 goals in his last 5 contests. He hasn’t quite been able to put it all together yet in his brief career, but this may be the start of something worthwhile. This is his current line:

Sens Line Combo
Centering a line with Bobby Ryan can never be a bad thing and Mike Hoffman is an underrated offensive player. This is Ottawa’s 2nd line, as Alex Chiasson joins Zibanejad and Ryan on Ottawa’s 2nd power play unit. Another strong sign for Mika is that he averages 2:42 of time on the man advantage per tilt. Further, a third of his points this season have come on the power play. Currently owned in only 17% of Y! leagues, he may be worth taking a flyer on. Others apparently feel the same way, as he has been picked up by 396 owners in the last 24 hour period.

Nick Bjugstad, Florida Panthers: I don’t know what’s more amazing, the fact that I am about to write about a Florida Panther or that I spelled his name correctly on the first try! Make no mistake about it, big Nick, 19th pick in the 2010 draft and former University of Minnesota Golden Golpher star has arrived as a legit NHL player. At 6 foot 6, Bjugstad has the size and reach to power through and/or around defenders. Oh and by the way, the kid knows his way around a shootout:

http://video.nhl.com/videocenter/embed?playlist=702207

With 12 goals and 19 points in 27 games (which included 4 in a recent 3-game stretch), Bjugstad has made it clear it’s time to pick him up in fantasy. He is currently owned in 32% of Y! leagues:

Panthers Line Combo
I know, not exactly the triple crown line from the LA King’s heydays, but there is some potential here. Huberdeau is a former 3rd overall pick and Calder Trophy winner and Fleischmann should be well known to fantasy owners, as he has been up and down over the years with Florida and Washington. Florida is a young team trending in the right direction, and as their #1 center, Bjugstad is at the heart of their renaissance. With an average of 2:07 power play time per game and 3 power goals, there will be plenty of man advantage opportunities for Bjugstad in the coming weeks. He may not be as hot a pickup as Galchenyuk or Zibanejad, but I would keep him on your watch list and monitor his progress heading into 2015.

Notice a trend with these 3 players? They’re young, on the cusp of stardom and getting plenty of ice time. If you’re in a keeper league, I would consider all 3 of them to be must-owns.

Statistical credits: NHL.com, Dailyfaceoff.com
Photo/video cred: http://goo.gl/kb8fev, http://goo.gl/6cdlCK, http://goo.gl/Y7PSEz, NHL.com

Check out FantasyRundown.com for all of our latest articles and other great fantasy content.

Derek is The Sports Script’s resident fantasy hockey guru. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @Extra_Attacker!

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The Extra Attacker: Who is John Klingberg?

John Klingberg
Klingberg’s eye for the puck and role on an offensive-minded Stars club make him a valuable fantasy commodity

Abba. Ikea. Meatballs. Sensation Films. Sweden always seems to deliver something that gets the attention of their fans from across the pond. It’s no different in fantasy hockey, as the hockey powerhouse who has brought us Lundqvist, Hakaan Loob, and the Sedin sisters has introduced the fantasy hockey world to John Klingberg, defenseman for the Dallas Stars. Called up officially on November 8th, the 23 year-old blue-liner did not make his debut until November 11th versus Arizona, and the rest is the stuff of which fantasy legends are made. In 10 games, Klingberg has registered 3 goals and 5 assists, including this gem for his 1st career goal:

Side note: Strangis and Reaugh are a top-3 broadcast duo in my opinion

A 5th round pick in the 2010 draft (what is it with Dallas and their 5th round thievery? Jamie Benn, 5th round 2007), Klingberg was averaging over a point per game with the AHL’s Texas Stars before the mid-November promotion. With 3 multi-point games in his first 8, Klingberg was gathering steam on the waiver wire. His momentum appears as though it’s steadying out for the time being. He’s owned in 29% of Y! leagues, this past week he was added to 101 teams, but also dropped by 146. Here are a few factors that may be contributing to this:

  1. His shooting percentage currently sits at 25%: There is absolutely no way this continues. Mark Giordano, the NHL’s top-scoring defenseman with 25 points in 25 games, is scoring at a 10.7% clip. Klingberg and fellow Swede Victor Hedman are the only 2 defensemen in the top-20 in shooting percentage currently, so expect a regression to the 8%-12% range. That’s not necisarily a bad thing, as defensemen are volume shooters. He could still put 150 picks on net going forward, assists could be his calling card.
  2. Dallas’ defensive shortcomings: The Stars are a terrible defensive team no matter how you cut it. They are 29th in goals against (3.5 GAA/game), and they rank 6th in shots against per game (32.6). These numbers are recipes for disaster when it comes to individual plus/minus stats, and this could be scaring fantasy owners away from Klingberg. After watching a few Dallas games that he’s played in, I can understand the hesitation. He really likes to jump into the rush; a throwback offensive-minded blue-liner for sure. Again, not necessarily a bad thing. Allow me to explain.
  3. Watching Klingberg play: It’s evident he is not afraid to jump into the rush (think Erik Karlsson-lite). He is not afraid to make mistakes, either. While his penchant for offense is not conducive to defensive-minded hockey, we’re talking fantasy here! The more o-ffense, the better!
  4. Power play time on ice (TOI): Again, as was the case when I wrote about TJ Brodie and Sami Vatanen, power play quarterbacks are a hot commodity in fantasy. Through his 1st 10 games, Klingberg is averaging a solid 2:33 of power play time per game. Though Dallas ranks in the bottom third of the NHL in power play percentage, anytime a guy like Klingberg can hit the ice on the man advantage with the likes of Tyler Seguin, Jamie Benn, and Jason Spezza, only good things can happen. Although only 1 of his points has come on the power play, that number should increase as the season progresses.

 The verdict: I highly recommend you take a shot on Klingberg. There is a lot to like here. Along with all the power play time he’s getting, Klingberg is on the ice for an average of almost 24 minutes per game. Stars head coach Lindey Ruff looks content giving him a long, hard look on his back line. So should you!

There are some good signs that he can somewhat keep up with his current pace. Along with the 2:33 of powerplay icetime, Klingberg is averaging 23:36 of TOI/game, so Dallas Head Coach Lindey Ruff looks content on giving him a long, hard look on his backline, so should you.

The Jofa helmet, the name, the flow…let us never forget Hakaan Loob! Long live the Swedish import!

Statistical credits: ESPN.com, NHL.com, Behindthenet.ca
Photo cred: http://goo.gl/DWnk6f

Check out FantasyRundown.com for all of our latest articles and other great fantasy content.

Derek Gibson is The Sports Script’s resident fantasy hockey guru. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @Extra_Attacker!

The Extra Attacker: Sin Bin Love

We the fantasy hockey players have a thing called sin bin love. Pugilists are people too and some of them can actually play the game of hockey! Most, if not all, fantasy hockey leagues include penalty minutes to some degree. I’ve played in various league formats with regards to PIM’s, and they are a valuable part of any team’s success. Drafting a player who can pot 15-20 goals and register 100 or so penalty minutes is fantasy gold. In the 2013-14 season, of the 32 players with 100 penalty minutes, there were only three who scored 20 or more goals. Those players were David Backes, Wayne Simmonds and Scott Hartnell. So you drafted your team, and now you realize you need some heavy sandpaper to compliment your turtleneck wearing softies (here’s looking at you, Tomas Plekanec). Backes was drafted on average in Yahoo! Leagues at 50, Simmonds at 59, and Hartnell at 92. Now what? Let’s take a look at two players who could very well still be available in your league, and will certainly help you with your “sin bin love”:

Antoine Roussel, Dallas Stars: Roussel was third in the NHL last season with 209 PIM’s. Conversely, he chipped in offensively with 29 points. At present, Roussel is owned in just 24% of Y! leagues. He is on pace to not only best his PIM’s from last year, but with 5 goals and 5 assists, he’s looking at rarified air for fighters: 40 points! Watching some Dallas games this year, Roussel has seen some power play time (he currently has 2 assists on the man advantage), making him even more valuable. If you’ve got the room, add him now. If that’s not enough, here’s a scrap from Sunday, where Roussel and Chicago’s Andrew Shaw go at it. This may in fact be the scrap of the year so far.

Steve Downie, Pittsburgh Penguins: Downie is no stranger to this category, as we’ve seen flashes of fantasy brilliance from him for a few years with different teams. There are two factors that make him more valuable this year with his new team. First, the Pens have never really had a player like Downie, who can both protect the team’s stars and contribute offensively (Matt Cooke doesn’t count). The second biggest factor is Pittsburgh’s new assistant coach, Rick Tocchet (a fighting legend in his time). Tocchet was with a young Downie in Tampa Bay, and the two have a great connection. So what does this mean for fantasy owners? Tocchet is responsible for running the Penguins power play and Downie is averaging 1:35 minutes per game on the man advantage. Downie is presently the NHL’s leader in PIM’s with 60, and with 9 points in 17 games, he is on pace for 42 points and 288 minutes. Currently only owned in 29% of Y! Leagues, he makes for an even better add than Roussel. Grab him, quickly! Here’s a recent Downie fight. Would why anyone ever want this out of hockey?

Just for fun, I did a statistical breakdown of what my all-time favorite fighter Bob Probert’s 1987-88 season would have looked like from a fantasy perspective. Awesome is the only word to describe it!

74 GP, 29 goals, 33 assists, 15 power play goals, +16 and 398 PIM’s!

Using standard points league settings, he would have scored a ridiculous 306.5 points. He would have outscored Sidney Crosby (2013) by 148 fantasy points!

“Give blood, fight Probie”

Statistical credits: Hockeyfights.com, TSN.com, ESPN.com, NHL.com

Check out FantasyRundown.com for all of our latest articles and other great fantasy content.

Derek Gibson is The Sports Script’s resident fantasy hockey guru. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @Extra_Attacker!

The Extra Attacker: Don’t Bail on Nail

Nail Yakupov
Patience is warranted with the young Russian

Enigma. sqare peg, round hole. Doesn’t play 200 feet.

Those are a lot of different ways that scouts, fans, press, and even the peanut vendors (a tribute to the greatest hockey movie ever, Slap Shot) describe 21 year-old, Russian-born, former #1 overall pick Nail Yakupov. If you didn’t know any better, you would think his first 2+ years in the NHL had been an unmitigated disaster.

And from a fantasy perspective? Forget it! If you’re in a standard, one year league, this could very well be true. Keeper league? Read on, and I’ll tell you why you shouldn’t bail on Nail.

Yakupov burst onto the scene during the lockout-shortened 2012-13 NHL season, recording 31 points in 48 games. He played to a respectable -4 while scoring 6 power play goals and boasting a solid 21% shooting percentage. It seemed like the youngster was primed to take the next step this season as top-line minutes and increased power play time looked inevitable.

He even made some headlines with his game-tying goal celebrations:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tfysDNnuX64

Ten power play points and 2:28 on the man advantage per game; Nail was thriving under first-year coach Ralph Krueger. Keeper league owners were licking their chops for what was to come. so naturally, Edmonton GM-extraordinaire Craig MacTavish famously fired Krueger over Skype, hired Dallas Eakins as the head coach, and the rest has been a disaster. Eakins demanded 200 foot play, heavy defensive responsibilities, sound hockey without the puck and a reduction in risky play. Those things are not in a Russian-born player’s hockey vocabulary.

The results were abysmal: 61 games, 24 points, a minus 33, less than 2:00 minutes per game on the power play and a complete and utter lack of confidence on Yakupov’s part. Nail’s confidence was so much in the gutter that his agent made a trip to Edmonton mid-season to talk with management and try to lobby for a trade to give new life to his client. No dice. Yakupov remained on many, many fantasy hockey waiver wires.

During the offseason, Yakupov spent the majority of his summer in Edmonton, gaining strength and dedicating himself to improving his all-around game. New season, new hopes and a strange status for a former #1 pick: fantasy sleeper. Yakupov was drafted on average in the 14th round in Yahoo! leagues and was projected somewhere in the 50-point range. Thus far, Yakupov is off to a slow start for the Oilers. But trust me, if you watch the Oilers play (something I have painstakingly done probably more than I should this season), good things are on the horizon. He skates hard (with and without the puck), back-checks, plays physical, and after taking only 16 shots in his first 10 games, is averaging almost 4 per game over his last 5. The biggest problem right now is the uniform he wears.

Like I said, square peg, round hole.

Yakupov has done everything that’s been asked of him yet something just isn’t right. 15 games played: 2 goals, 4 assists and just 1 measly power play assist. Not good.

He’s currently available in 60% of Y! leagues. There have been plenty of trade rumors surrounding the youngster, and at some point a change of scenery may be necessary. In most keeper leagues there are 2-3 “extra” roster spots (sometimes called a taxi squad), where owners can stash young players that don’t necessarily warrant a nightly start right now, but are just too tempting to release for fear that a switch will go on at any point. This is Yakupov. Stash him on your keeper team for now and await a big trade, which seems a formality in Edmonton. A change in venue, line-mates and coaches will certainly benefit Yakupov. This may make you, the prudent fantasy hockey owner glad that you didn’t bail on Nail.

Statistical credits: NHL.com
Photo cred: EdmontonSun.com

Derek Gibson is The Sports Script’s resident fantasy hockey guru. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @Extra_Attacker!

The Extra Attacker: Emerging Power Play Quarterbacks

Early on in the ’14-’15 NHL season, fantasy owners are frantically searching their free agents pools, looking for that diamond in the rough. Whether it be a young goalie off to a strong start or a forward who has seen a jump to a more prominent role. What fake gamers shouldn’t forget is those defensemen! Not just any defensemen, but those who can put up 35 to 40 points. What is the primary path to d-men racking up points? The power play!

The man advantage is a fantasy goldmine for fantasy owners. No matter the league format, power play production is a hot commodity, especially from the blue line. In the season’s first two weeks, two under-the-radar, young defensemen have risen to the top of the fantasy must-have: Calgary defenseman TJ Brodie and Anaheim defenseman Sami Vatanen.

Brodie has 3 goals and 4 assists in the early going. He's currently the #4 fantasy option on defense
Brodie has 3 goals and 4 assists in the early going. He’s currently the #4 fantasy option on defense

TJ Brodie: With 7 points in his 1st 8 games, Brodie’s Y! availability has dwindled down to 28% in the last couple of days, as the majority of fantasy owners now understand just how good he is. At 24, Brodie has steadily developed into a fine offensive blue-liner for a couple years, as witnessed by his career-high 31 points in 81 games a year ago. What could be the biggest factor in him taking the leap from 30 points to the 50 range? Power play time/game. Last year, Brodie averaged 1:36/game. Thus far that time has risen to 2:17 in 8 games. Suddenly, his percentage of power play points from a year ago (22.6%) could rise into the 30-35% range (the golden standard is Erik Karlsson, who last year saw 41.9% of his points come on the power play). Additionally, Calgary is a much improved, hard-working team. More power play opportunities equal a strong possibility of production from Brodie.

The Flames’ front office predicted this rise from Brodie and recently signed him to a 5-year, $23.5 million contract extension. The Flames made a leap of faith, now it’s time for you, the fantasy owner to do the same thing.

Sami Vatanen: Vatanen is a young, offensive-minded blue liner playing for an excellent team. He’s seen a spike in power play time – on a line with Perry, Getzlaf and Kesler nonetheless. Label me interested! Vatanen is off to an exceptional start, as an injury to incumbent #1 defenseman Cam Fowler has opened the door. All he’s done with the opportunity is record 2 goals and 3 assists in 6 games, all of which have come on the man advantage. The season is still young, but Vatanen is currently averaging 4:30/game on the man advantage, and with the names listed above as his linemates, the 23 year-old Finn could be on the verge of fantasy stardom. Currently owned in only 45% of Yahoo! leagues, Vatanen is a must own at this point, and a point total well into the 40’s is a reasonable prediction.

The only two chinks in Vatanen’s armor moving forward? The return of Fowler, who is a slick, offensive-minded young defenseman who is the true power-play quarterback for the Ducks. Although it’s dreamy to think that all of his points will come on the power play, but regression in that area will be automatic in the long term. Having said that, Vatanen’s value right now is sky high; grab him while you can.

Neither one of these two young studs will give you much in the way of periphery categories (blocked shots, PIM or hits). But hey, who cares at this point?! Their power play production has them both at the top of the must-own fantasy list.

Statistical credits: NHL.com, calgarysun.com, ducks.nhl.com, capgeek.com
Photo cred: http://i.imgur.com/tuNfJTo.jpg

Derek Gibson is The Sports Script’s resident fantasy hockey guru. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @Extra_Attacker!

Fantasy Hockey: Late Round Sleepers

The fantasy definition of “sleeper” is an under-the-radar draft pick with a lot of potential. Every year, there are several players that you kick yourself for allowing to slip past you. It happens to us all. We forget about the trade or signing that sets a player up in a perfect situation, or a young player ready to make the big leap from 30-35 points into the 55-60 range. Bottom line? Do your homework!

Here are five I’m keeping a close eye on in the coming days:

Patric Hornqvist, RW (Penguins): Talk about leaving the Nashville outhouse and entering the Pittsburgh penthouse! Hornqvist has been underrated in fantasy for the last several years because of playing in the offensive hockey version of Siberia known as Nashville. Hornqvist is projected to play on a line centered by Evgeni Malkin, and in all likelihood, play on Pittsburgh’s #1 power play unit. For a player that has scored 35% of his career points on the man advantage, the former Predator could be in for the best season of his career. Look for Hornqvist to blow his single-season career high of 53 points completely out of the water. Oh yeah, he plays with a little sandpaper too, so he’s got a legit shot at 50 PIM. My projection: 33 goals, 35 assists, +15, 20 PPP, 245 SOG, 38 PIM

Loui Eriksson, LW (Bruins): Someone will slide very comfortably into Jarome Iginla’s open wing spot next to David Krejci and Milan Lucic, and who better for the job than the slick, 29 year-old Swedish winger who is only two years removed from a streak of four consecutive 25-goal seasons and three straight 70-point campaigns? He missed more than 20 games this past season with injuries, including a nasty concussion courtesy of Brooks Orpik. A healthy season from Loui could result in a possible return to the 70-point range. Eriksson has fantasy steal written all over him, so draft the winger in the ninth round and beyond in standard drafts. My projection: 28 goals, 38 assists, +25, 13 PPP, 185 SOG

Chris Stewart, RW (Sabres): Remember him? Players like Stewart are extremely rare in fantasy hockey: 50+ point and 125+ PIM potential. Stewart fell way out of favor in St. Louis under Ken Hitchcock and was shipped to Buffalo. His arrival in Buffalo was to a rudderless ship, and his fantasy value plummeted accordingly. New season, new start, Stewart has big power forward upside, and that can be very tempting for fantasy owners if he is on his game. Depending on linemates (projected to play with Matt Moulson and Tyler Eniss on Sabres’ top line), Stewart is a low-risk, high-reward investment at the end of your draft. Another important factor for Stewart heading into 2014-15: he’s an unrestricted free agent (UFA). Those three letters, when put in acronym form for professional athletes, means monster performance = monster contract. Pair Stewart’s abilities with his contract status, and very few NHL players have the boom-or-bust capability like Stewart. My projection: 27 goals, 25 assists, -7, 13 PPP, 115 PIM, 185 SOG

Christian Erhoff, D (Penguins): Another new addition to the Penguins’ lineup (Like Hornqvist) that will see a nice jump in fantasy value due to an address change. I think we can all agree Pittsburgh is not Buffalo; for that reason, Erhoff should see a substantial bump right across the board in all statistical categories. Now toss in the potential to play on a top pairing with Kris Letang and also see significant time on the Pens’ #1 power play unit, and the 32 year-old German becomes a very attractive pick for your fantasy blueline. Draft him anywhere in rounds 12-14 and watch him blossom into a top-20 fantasy rearguard. My projection: 13 G, 36 Assists, +5, 17 PPP, 42 PIM, 174 SOG

HoltbyBraden Holtby, G (Capitals): What, you thought I was gonna forget to include a goalie in my sleeper picks? Not a chance! New Caps’ head coach Barry Trotz has officially handed the #1 backstop job to Holtby, and at 25, he is poised to take control of it this year and several more. Another promising sign for Holtby was the hiring of goalie coach Mitch Korn, who was the Predators’ goaltending coach for the past 16 years alongside Trotz. Korn has a way with goalies and should be able to get Holtby back on track. The overall commitment to team defense from Trotz and his staff can only help Holtby return to his 2012-13 season of a .920 Saves Percentage. He finished last season as the 30th ranked fantasy goalie; that will not happen this year. Look to draft him anywhere around the 10th round, and sit back and enjoy his climb into fantasy hockey’s top 15 goalies. My projection: 36 wins, .920 SV%, 4 Shutouts, 2.52 GAA

Statistical credits: ESPN.com, CapGeek.com
Photo cred: isportsweb.com, bleachereport.com, gettyimages.com, USAtoday.com and CSNwashington.com

Derek Gibson is The Sports Script’s resident fantasy hockey guru. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @Extra_Attacker!

In The Crease: Goaltender Handcuffs

Priest Holmes/Larry Johnson, Ladanian Tomlinson/Michael Turner, Arian Foster/Ben Tate; the term “handcuff” is synonymous to fantasy football players. It is now no different in fantasy hockey. Gone are the days of goalies making 75 starts in a single season, it just does not happen anymore. The physical taxation on the body due to the butterfly position style necessitates that goalies get their proper rest, and having a competent backup is a must. Prior to your upcoming draft, let’s take a look at 3 potential goalie handcuff pairings that could bring you success throughout the season. Not only could you benefit from both goalies, but you may also be able to take advantage of great value in the mid to later rounds with both the starter and backup.

Brian Elliott/Jake Allen (St Louis): This is the perfect example of a handcuffing situation that could be a big hit this season. The veteran Elliott and the up and coming youngster Allen. Elliott will be the starter, coming off a great year with a 1.96 GAA and .922 SV%, but he is best served in slightly better than small sample sizes. His career high in starts is 48 in 2009-10 with Ottawa; the 2014-15 St Louis Blues are a far superior team to that Senators squad, as they bring back essentially the same lineup from last year’s 111 point team (add in strong two-way possession center Paul Stastny). If Elliott gets 45-50 starts, look for a slight regression in his SV% (career of .911), but the wins will be there as well as excellent shutout opportunities; in the last 3 years, he has 16 shutouts in 81 starts, better than 1 in every 5 starts.  The 24-year-old Allen earned AHL Goalie of the Year honors in 2013-14 while playing for AHL Chicago, where he went 33-16-0 with a 2.03 GAA and .927 save percentage. His numbers were predictably less impressive in a 15-game cameo with the Blues in the lockout-shortened 2012-13 campaign, but he’s developed significantly since then and should make for a good spot start option most any time he’s guaranteed to be in the net.

Handcuff Potential: This is a 5-handcuff goldmine; the Blues should win anywhere from 47-52 games. Draft both with confidence of those numbers, plus chip in 8-10 team shutouts and this handcuff pair is well worth it.

Ben Scrivens/Victor Fasth (Edmonton): Everyone in the fantasy hockey community is well aware of Ben Scrivens and possibly the greatest fantasy start ever:

However, Scrivens is much more than just a one-hit wonder. He’s a quality goalie with a career .917 SV%. The problem for him and Fasth will be the stigma of playing for Edmonton, an abysmal possession team that most nights seemed to have almost no structure in their defensive end. Compare Scriv Master B’s statistical splits with Edmonton and the Kings:

Team:               GS:            GAA:                 SV:               SV%:

LA                      15             1.97                 432                  .931

EDM                  20             3.01                 679                  .916

Yes, LA is the defensive-minded and advanced statistical possession team Edmonton’s front office only dreams of being, but from a Yahoo! standard scoring perspective, Scrivens is actually not a bad, late-round option. He averaged seeing 28 shots/game for the Kings, and 34 shots/game for the Oilers. Take out the 59 save gem, and it’s still 32 per outing. So, he will see plenty of rubber regardless, and the Oilers, believe it or not, should be much-improved in their own zone, adding possession darling Mark Fayne on the blueline. Their Corsi numbers should improve from 28th in the league to somewhere in the low 20’s, which could mean a slight dip in shots on goal, but the win total for the team could see a spike from last years paltry 29. Scrivens has potential for 20-25 wins.

Victor Fasth is a definite wild card heading into 2014-15. He came into the NHL later than most goaltenders, but has shown plenty of talent and poise. After pushing Jonas Hiller for a starting job in his rookie season with Anaheim, Fasth dealt with injuries before being traded to the Oilers in 2013-14. He played only seven games in net for the Oilers, but put up better numbers than Ben Scrivens (2.73 GAA and .914 SV%). At 32, Fasth should expect to see 30-35 starts and could potentially beat out Scrivens. The two will battle for the starting gig, and could end up in a timeshare.

Handcuff Potential: Both will see their fair share of rubber regardless of who is playing, and fantasy value comes into play only if  the Oilers become a much better defensive team. Both should be available some time after round 10, so the gamble may be worth while.

Frederick Andersen/John Gibson (Anaheim): This another high-profile goaltending duo that warrants careful monitoring during training camp. Both Andersen and competitor Gibson ended up surpassing incumbent Jonas Hiller on the depth chart for the Ducks during the postseason, but Andersen suffered an MCL sprain in round 2 against the Kings that allowed Gibson to leave the lasting impression (3-0, 1.33 GAA .954 SV% in regular season action & 2-2/2.59/.919 vs LA). Andersen, however was nearly as good as Gibson over a much larger sample of last season (20-5-0 with a 2.29 GAA and .923 save percentage). The greater amount of experience confers an early advantage to Andersen in the job battle, but whomever opens the season as the No. 1 goalie will largely earn the gig based on training camp performance. Gibson is the future, and if you can, draft/stash him in keeper formats, but Andersen has done nothing to convince me he won’t be fighting for a starting gig with the Ducks this season. And, based on his rookie numbers as Jonas Hiller’s backup this past season, he deserves a shot.

The Ducks’ coaching staff may just have to choose their ‘tender based on mask creativity; Gibson (left) and Anderson (right).

Gibson MaskAnderson Mask

Handcuff Potential: This battle is right up there comparable to St. Louis, based on Anaheim being a superb regular season team that had 116 points last year and added Ryan Kesler. The only red flag to me is that Andersen could very well seize the starting gig and see 57-62 starts, leaving Gibson as a true backup. But if you can get Andersen — and Gibson for that matter — late enough in a draft as a No. 3 and No. 4 goaltender, you could hit a fantasy goldmine should one emerge over the other.

Other Potential Duos:

Robin Lehner/Craig Anderson, Ottawa

Anton Khudobin/Cam Ward, Carolina

Jonathan Bernier/James Reimer, Toronto (Aren’t there always goaltending issues in Toronto?)

Marc-Andre Fluery/Thomas Greiss, Pittsburgh (Keep an eye out on this one)

Antti Niemi/Alex Stalock, San Jose (Just like in Pittsburgh, the longtime starter could be unseated)

Good luck!

Statistical credits: thehockeynews.com
Photo cred: http://goo.gl/0Kk4n8 (Gibson mask), http://goo.gl/xp11HU (Anderson mask)

Derek Gibson is The Sports Script’s resident fantasy hockey guru. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @Extra_Attacker!

In The Crease: Varlamov Vs. Ben Bishop

In fantasy hockey, much like real life, goalies rule. Whether you do a points-based league or head to head category, having 2-3 superb goaltenders can be the difference between a league championship and a last place finish. Last season there were several surprises in between the pipes across the league, but two goalies, each on separate paths, rose to the top, and now the dilemma for the upcoming season begins: Semyon Varlamov or Ben Bishop?

While researching and crunching the numbers, I have come to the conclusion that it’s too darn close to call, but let’s delve into the stats a bit further, should you find yourself in this spot during draft day.

Tale of the tape:

Using the standard Yahoo! scoring system, both goalies were within nearly 22 points of one other. Not a significant difference, but there’s more to the stats than meets the eye:

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Those are the basic statistics. Once again, it’s a tight race between the enigmatic Russian (aren’t all Russian goalies enigmatic?), and the 6’ 8” former Maine Black Bear. Let’s compare!

Semyon Varlamov: As the undisputed starter in Colorado, Varlamov enjoyed by far his best statistical season in ’13-’14. If you watched the Avs on a consistent basis (a fun, speedy team), you’ll know that Varly’s Vezina Trophy runner-up and 4th place Hart Trophy finish were no fluke; he dominated more or less from start to finish (Olympics and Games 6 & 7 in the Cup Playoffs vs Minnesota notwithstanding). What you may/may not know is that, for Colorado to compete night in/night out, he had no choice.

While crunching the numbers, I utilized the latest in advanced statistic, the CORSI Rating. Named after longtime Buffalo Sabres’ goaltending coach Jim Corsi, it essentially breaks down a team’s 5 on 5 play with possession of the puck relative to offensive zone time. In 2013-’14, the Avalanche played at a CORSI rating of 47.4%, which was good for 25th in the NHL. What’s that mean for Varlamov? Lots of defensive zone time for the Avs, which leads to more scoring chances against, which then leads to more shots on goal. Lots more shots on goal!

Varlamov led all goaltenders with 2,013 shots faced, almost 200 more than the next tender (Kari Lehtonen). Varly was a busy, busy man, yet answered the bell with a .927 Saves %, ranking 3rd best in the league.

Ben BishopBen Bishop: The Denver, CO native enjoyed his breakout season in 2013-’14, as he finished 3rd in the Vezina Trophy voting, and set many franchise single-season records in the process. Bishop emerged as on the best netminders in the league, and showed just how valuable he was to the Lightning, as the team crumbled in the opening round of the playoffs when Bishop suffered a dislocated elbow. That injury coupled with offseason wrist surgery bears monitoring for the prudent fantasy owner.

The opposite of Varlamov, Bishop faced 1,758 shots (9th in the league), and was the benefactor of a much more sound defensive team in front of him. Tampa’s CORSI rating of 51.5% ranked 10th in the NHL, and with the offseason additions of Jason Garrison and Anton Stralman on defense in addition to a full season of Ryan Callahan’s strong two-way play, the Bolts’ team defense should be even stronger in 14-15. At 27, Bishop is truly entering his “prime” as a starting goalie.

Verdict: This is a tight, tight race, but I will give the slight edge to Bishop. Both goalies will be in the 2nd tier after Lundqvist, Quick, and Rask, but draft Bishop ahead of Varlamov; it seems a bit too unrealistic to expect Varlamov to repeat his 13-14 season and he does have a history of inconsistency. Having said all that, remember to monitor Bishop’s health going into camp.

Photo cred: http://goo.gl/i6OG4X

Derek Gibson is The Sports Script’s resident fantasy hockey guru. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @Extra_Attacker!

Give Ty A Try: A Case For Tyler Seguin

Fantasy drafts are full of questions. If rewarded the first pick, who should I take? Do I go safe or go big? The question in all fantasy sports usually revolves around the 1st and 2nd picks: Trout or Cabrera? McCoy or Charles? The thinking really begins at Pick 3…

The consensus #1 pick in fantasy hockey will be Sidney Crosby, and why not? He’s the only player you can pencil in for 100 points. After Sid, the safest pick at 2 will be a very motivated Steven Stamkos, fully recovered from his broken leg. Pick 3 is where it gets tricky; how will Alexander Ovechkin respond to playing for a more defensive-minded coach in Barry Trotz? Geno Malkin is without question a fantasy stud, but the big man is injury-prone. So there you are at 3: decisions, decisions. The decision should actually be an easy one, it’s Tyler Seguin.

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The centerpiece of a seven player blockbuster deal between Dallas and Boston, Seguin by enjoyed by far his best professional season, finishing fourth in scoring with 84 points (37 goals, 47 assists). A system that favored his skill set, and a switch back to his natural center position no doubt attributed to his success, but during his first three seasons Seguin did not shoot anywhere near enough to satisfy fantasy owners.

Here is the breakdown of his shots on goals for his career:
2010-11: 74 games played: 131 SOG
2011-12: 80 games played: 242 SOG
2012-13: 48 games played: 161 SOG
2013-14: 81 games played: 294 SOG

By crunching the numbers, Seguin averaged 2.6 SOG per game during his first three years, and his first year in Dallas, saw it spike to 3.6 SOG. Averaging 1 extra shot on goal can make a huge difference over the course of an 82 game season.

More importantly though was his power play ice time. Every fantasy hockey owner knows special teams’ plays a huge role in league settings, and another reason Seguin should be high on your draft board is his power play production.

Average PP time/game: 
2011-12: 2.27
2012-13: 2:11
2013-14: 3:45

Averaging over 1 extra minute on the man advantage is significant, and Seguin did not disappoint, as 29.9% of his season point total of 84 points (25) came on the power play. That number certainly has the potential for even greater success this season. The offseason acquisitions of not one but two slick playmakers in Ales Hemsky and Jason Spezza will make Dallas’ Power Play even more potent.

Seguin’s 294 SOG’s ranked 4th in the NHL, however his shooting percentage of 12.6% ranked 24th amongst players who scored 25 goals or more times. One can expect not only an increase in shots, but with a little more luck, Seguin could easily be a Maurice “Rocket” Richard Trophy candidate for leading the league in goals, and 50+ is certainly not out of the question.

All this and we forgot to mention that Tyler Seguin doesn’t turn 23 until after the New Year; this is without question a star player who is on the verge of super stardom and with a team that should improve its offensive output from a year ago, Seguin should no doubt be leading the charge in Dallas this year.

Photo cred: http://goo.gl/Jvj6wL

Derek Gibson is The Sports Script’s resident fantasy hockey guru. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @Extra_Attacker!