Eight In The Box: IDP Waiver Wire Week 13

Jared Allen
Jared Allen is going to eat on Thanksgiving, you can book it

I have been working on going through my predictions for the year to see how good (or bad) I have been doing. I have completed the results from my recommendations since I have been on the Fantasy Forecaster podcast beginning in week 8.  Rather than include everything I have recommended, I will begin to include the previous week’s results as well as the summary stats for the year.

Since there are so many scoring systems I will use a threshold of 5 solo tackles or 10 combined tackles. Above that for starts or below that for sits will count as a “win.” In addition, if I recommend a player as a start and they get a sack or interception that will also be counted as a win regardless of the tackle numbers.

By the end of the season I will go through all of these columns and compile those results as well. Although, these are more difficult to decide if they are wins or losses because many of the recommendations may be to monitor or pick up as a speculative add. Those are difficult to quantify as wins or losses so I will make a judgment call.

Week 12 results from the podcast:

Player Stats Start/Sit Result Type
Avery Williamson 5/1/0 start Y IDP
Aldon Smith 3/0/2 start Y IDP
Carlos Dunlap 3/2/1 start Y IDP
Jared Allen 2/0/0 start N IDP
Keenan Robinson 7/1/0 start Y IDP
CJ Mosely 9/0/1 start Y IDP
Cameron Wake 3/0/0 sit Y IDP
Terrell Suggs 4/2/1 sit N IDP
Jerrell Freeman 5/4/.5 sit N IDP
Mychal Kendricks 7/0/0 sit N IDP
Eddie Lacy 25-125; 2-13; 2 TD start Y Offense
Jay Cutler 130 yds, 1 TD start N Offense
Theo Riddick 2-12; 3-40 sit Y Offense

Week 12: 8-5 (62% success)

Season (since week 8): 42-16 (72% success)

*IDP stats are listed as: solos/assists/sacks; PD = pass defensed, FR = fumble recover, INT = interception

Week 12 Results from this column:

Player Stats Start/Sit Result Type
Clinton McDonald 2/0/1/FR Start Y IDP
Mario Williams 3/0/2 Start Y IDP
Rob Ninkovich 1/0/1 Start Y IDP
Robert Quinn 0/0/0/1 PD Start N IDP
Aldon Smith 3/0/2 Start Y IDP
Jamie Collins 2/2/0 Start N IDP
Dont’a Hightower 5/3/0 Start Y IDP
Justin Houston 4/0/1 Start Y IDP
Reshad Jones 2/0/2 Start N IDP
Ha Ha Clinton Dix 7/2/0/1 PD Start Y IDP
Michael Griffin 11/1/0 Start Y IDP

Week 12: 8-3 (73% success)

Season: Still compiling

I am open to suggestions. If there is anything you want clarified or think my thresholds are wrong please let me know. Any input is appreciated. On to this week’s information:

IDP Injuries of note:

  • Brodrick Bunkley (NO DT): Bunkley is thought to have torn his quad in the game on Monday Night. This will most likely end his season. It isn’t a big blow to any IDP squad as he wasn’t putting up good fantasy numbers anyway. However, the Saints run defense will take a big hit as he occupied a lot of blockers in the middle of the defense.
  • Lance Briggs (CHI LB): This has been a very frustrating year for Mr. Briggs. He missed a bunch of time early due to a rib injury and now it looks like he will be on the shelf again with a groin issue. He is safe to drop at this point as he will most likely miss several weeks.
  • NaVorro Bowman (SF LB): Bowman was thought to begin practicing each of the last couple weeks but it hasn’t actually happened. He will miss this week as well. At this point in the season he should be dropped if you were holding out hope.
  • Jarvis Jones (PIT LB): Jones is still on the IR-designated to return but he is nearing a return. It appears he will miss out on this week’s game but could return in a 2-3 weeks. He is nothing more than a big play scoring league speculative add and dynasty hold right now.
  • Ryan Shazier (PIT LB): Shazier may see the field again this week. He is likely to play but I wouldn’t start him. Let’s see if he can make it through a game first. He has had a highly disappointing first year but is a nice buy-low candidate in dynasty leagues if his owner is playing for this year or is just frustrated with the injuries.
  • Troy Polamalu (PIT DB): Let’s just stick in Pittsburgh. Troy is supposed to return to the field this week after the sprained knee he suffered several weeks ago. This will be a boost to their defense but probably not worth your time in the IDP world. Wait and see how this week goes before making any moves.
  • Ike Taylor (PIT DB): It is a wonder the Steelers could field a defense with all the players in this section. Taylor is set to return from his broken forearm this week. He might be a sneaky play against the Saints but is not typically a strong IDP candidate.
  • Kyle Fuller (CHI DB): Finally, a non-Steeler. Fuller sprained his knee last week and isn’t expected to play on Thanksgiving against the Lions. He is a hold in corner-required leagues but he can otherwise be kicked to the curb.
  • Tashaun Gipson (CLE DB): Gipson tore his MCL and is expected to miss 6-8 weeks. You can drop him in redraft leagues.
  • Eric Berry (KC DB): Berry has been placed on the non-football injury list and is out for the rest of the year. In case you haven’t heard, the found a mass in his chest and believe he has lymphoma. This is a really unfortunate situation and everyone is hoping for the best. Get well Mr. Berry.

Who to use (or not):

DL:

  • Cameron Wake (MIA DL): Wake has a dreamy matchup against the Jets on Monday night. He has been very consistent over the last few weeks with 6.5 sacks since week 6. The Jets give up sacks on about 7% of their drop backs so this is a nice opportunity for him to pick up another sack or two.
  • Jared Allen (CHI DL): Allen is facing the Lions on Thanksgiving, and I think he eats. The Lions have given up a league-leading 33 sacks on the year and Allen will be very hungry.
  • Everson Griffen (MIN DL): Griffen is facing a Panther team that gives up sacks at almost 8% of their drop backs. That is good for the 6th worst in the league. He is having a solid year with 9 sacks but is on a two-game drought. I expect that to change in week 13.

LB:

  • Jelani Jenkins (MIA LB): Coming off a game where he put up 9 solos and had a sack he is in good position to have another solid tilt against the Jets. The Jets are middle of the pack when it comes to tackle opportunities so I think Jenkins gets his share this week.
  • Mychal Kendricks (PHI LB): Last week I recommended sitting Kendricks on the podcast. I learned my lesson. Kendricks is a must start LB1 and going against Dallas I expect him to put up double-digit tackles.
  • Von Miller (DEN LB): Miller is a strong play in any big play scoring system. He has 9.5 sacks on the year but only 1 over the last 4 games. He gets Kansas City this week who are 5th worst in the NFL in sack percentage allowed at almost 8%. A big game could be coming for Miller on Sunday night.

DB:

  • Ha Ha Clinton Dix (GB DB): Ha Ha continues to rack up the tackles and should get plenty of opportunities this week against New England. Double-digit tackles are coming his way.
  • Barry Church (DAL DB): Church gets the high volume Eagles on Thanksgiving. Play any good tackling safety against Philly and you will be rewarded.
  • James Ihedigbo (DET DB): Coming off a 9-solo game against the Patriots, I expect something similar this week against the Bears. I don’t think the Bears will have much of a running game and Cutler will be slinging it. Ihedigbo should continue his solid tackle numbers in this one.

Photo cred: http://goo.gl/4z1WXZ

Check out FantasyRundown.com for all of our latest articles and other great fantasy content.

Shane Gallimore is a fantasy football contributor and co-host of the live Sunday edition of The Fantasy Forecaster for The Sports Script. Follow him on Twitter @Gally4!

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