Draft Scripts: Using NFBC ADP’s to evaluate Outfield

In anticipation of the FSTA draft this week, I continue my early look at NFBC ADP’s, concentrating on the top 200 in money drafts. While the names continue to shuffle others stay the same. Outfield will be about trust, mixing some power with guys who can steal some bases and catching that bargain that others either overlooked or were burned by last year. It is evident in the ADP information that it will take due diligence and maybe a little luck to hit on the breakouts this year. Due the fact there are forty nine names to digest I made one chart and took the liberty of splitting up their strengths by color:

Red – 20+ HR, 8 < SB (Power); Green – 10 < HR, 20+ SB (Speed); Blue – 10+ HR, 10+ SB (Blends)

Here is how the outfield stacks up. I listed their draft rank below and also inserted their average ADP’s in the NFBC drafts to give an early indicator of their value prior to Thursday’s FSTA draft.

OF NFBC Avg ADP Chart Update 2

Keeping with the format, I have processed each player drafted in the top 200 in charts with their respective Steamer Projections courtesy of Fangraphs.com. After each group I will give some thoughts about how the outfielders stack up and then move to the next one. The first two charts will be in groups of seventeen then the last group will round out to the 49 outfielders according to the ADP numbers.

Group One – 4 Power, 1 Speed and 12 Blends

OF NFBC Projection Chart 1-17

I mean the first seventeen at most positions should be rock solid and for the most part the outfielders are. I have sort of clumped some highlights into categories since the Golden Globes just happened, so here goes. By the way I am not scared of either Matt Kemp or Justin Upton in San Diego but I wrote about that already here.
Safety in numbers: Adam Jones, Baltimore
He is not flashy and is always a regression candidate and he just keeps producing. It is like you do not feel great drafting him at his ADP but he is consistent while not flashy, which in the first round is not so bad.
Bounce Back: Ryan Braun, Milwaukee
I was warning drafters last year to avoid Ryan, but I am back. Since his ADP is trending down, his health may be up and guys who produce 28 home runs and 12 steals are dwindling with a batting average near .300, so I am here with open arms.
Trust Issues: Michael Brantley, Cleveland; Carlos Gonzalez, Colorado
While I am intrigued by the price on Carlos Gonzalez, his checkered health past, last year makes him a very risky option this early. But he could deliver a season like Michael Brantley did last year. Let that marinate a minute. Brantley broke through for a strong 2014, are you feeling lucky paying for a repeat? If you are the cost may alarm you.
Wild Cards: Bryce Harper, Washington; George Springer, Houston
Two guys who could determine how teams finish. I mean there is a 25 home run and 15 steal season while hitting .290 just waiting for Harper who people seem to forget is only 22 years old. With batting averages dropping across baseball again, a guy who could hit 30 home runs and if his legs stay healthy, steal 20 is tolerable if he hits .240, but the .240 could be iffy. If Springer gets his average to .250, then he is a potential top 10 outfielder. There, I said it.
Upside Play: Starling Marte, Pittsburgh
At the same cost as Carlos Gonzalez who may strain a pinkie or Billy Hamilton I can get a poor man’s Jacoby Ellsbury who is younger with more upside? Twenty picks later? Absolutely.
Group Two – 6 Power, 2 Speed, 9 Blends

OF NFBC Projection Chart 18-34

Safety in numbers: Nelson Cruz, Seattle
It is clear that Nelson Cruz’s huge 2014 netted him the Mariners contract which is twofold, first he will protect Robinson Cano and second he adds a power right handed bat that they have craved. While I am not saying to invest heavily in a repeat, he can still hit 25 home runs and you know what you are getting with Cruz.
Bounce Back: Jay Bruce, Cincinnati
At a time when power hitters are craved a strong return by Jay Bruce at a deflated cost would be huge for his fantasy value. We know he can hit for power, or at least should, but will his batting average return to respectability? Or does the shift have another victim?
Trust Issues: Charlie Blackburn, Colorado; J.D. Martinez, Detroit
One had a career year in Coors field and the other was an outcast from the Astros and found success in Motown? If I had to pick from the two, I think a repeat in power by Martinez is possible with some losses in batting average but his Steamer projection supports a solid season. I think Blackburn is a nice story but to invest in him this early when there are other options available late is a tough pick to justify.
Wild Cards: Rusney Castillo, Boston; Jorge Soler, Chicaco Cubs
A Cuban theme here in the wild card section so all kidding aside, they both have immense ability. If Castillo can translate his winter season statistics to the major leagues then the Red Sox have an even deeper outfield and should be dealing Allen Craig sooner than later. Not to kill the theme, but a power hitting outfielder is becoming rarer and rarer, so Jorge Soler has to be on radars. Since he could hit more home runs without destroying a team’s batting average I may venture to gamble on him since he can develop over say a Jay Bruce….the shift….
Upside Play: Jason Heyward, St. Louis
On my tombstone it will read, he trusted in in Jason Heyward. He has not hit left-handed pitching, well, at all lately and even though I sang his praises from the rooftops last year Heyward was replaced in Atlanta by Nick Markakis? Yes, that Nick Markakis. I am not saying that 20/20 is a guarantee but would it surprise anyone that being a Cardinal unlocked his potential? Would not be the first guy to have that happen.
Group Three: 3 Power, 4 Speed, 7 Blends, Melky Cabrera

OF NFBC Projection Chart 35-49

Safety in numbers: There is not really safety out here….

Bounce Back: Shin-Soo Choo, Texas
With health, it is hard to imagine a prohibitive top twenty outfielder in 2014 draft preps has fallen so precipitously, but Choo has. How many owners did he upset? In NFBC formats this means he is a tenth round pick and chance well worth taking. Unless the curse of Kinsler is real.
Trust Issues: Same as the safety problem, there are going to be trust issues here as well. Just look at the ADP’s of Alex Rios and the aforementioned Choo.
Wild Cards: Avisail Garcia, Chicago White Sox; Yasmany Tomas, Arizona
It takes some stones to invest in players out here in drafts and when you see the pitching options you will see why I am going to get power and hitters early and try to target pitching later. But I will take a chance on Avisail Garcia here since he could have a ceiling of 20 home runs with ten steals at an ADP of 172 on average. All day every day. The White Sox are going to score some runs. Yasmany Tomas will come with some hype especially with the breakout that Jose Abreu had last year but I fear that Tomas will resemble a different White Sox teammate, Dayan Viciedo. Tread lightly here….
Upside: Gregory Polanco, Pittsburgh
There are all kinds of terms, post-hype sleeper for example, whatever you want to say I think Polanco had a tough go after his promotion last year but he is talented. After watching him in person I was a fan and he has presence. Though his ceiling in 2015 is probably 13 home runs and 25 stolen bases that is a bargain where he is going.
It is getting late so I am going to offer up one more chart with player that are beyond the top 200 in each category for outfield with their projections included. When you speak of me, please speak nicely.

OF NFBC Undrafted Chart with Projections Updated

Statistical credits: Baseball-Reference.com, Fangraphs.com, ESPN.go.com
Photo cred: http://goo.gl/DKf0LS

Check out FantasyRundown.com for all of our latest articles and other great fantasy content.

Greg Jewett is The Sports Script’s senior fantasy baseball writer. Follow him on Twitter @gjewett9!

Advertisements

Transaction Scripts: Yasmani Tomas to Arizona

Yasmani TomasJesse Sanchez of MLB.com has reported that Yasmani Tomas has accepted a 6-year, 68.5 million dollar offer to sign as an international free agent with the Diamondbacks. His power is off the charts, but his approach may be the topic of discussion moving forward. Hitting in Arizona should only enhance his fantasy value.

As former scout Bernie Pleskoff points out, this gives the Diamondback options to change their roster moving forward. They have a mix of outfielders and middle infielders with many teams searching for a shortstop to address their pitching needs.

As for Tomas, his power is a 70 out of 80 on the grading scale. Some scouts feel his swing is long but I would be more concerned about the presence of the uppercut in this home run:

Tomas also struggled against breaking pitches during the World Baseball Classic, so adjusting to Major League pitching may be a bit of a struggle for him. There’s no doubt that he will run into some fastballs and hit them a long way, however. Trusting his stats from the last three seasons in Cuba will be tough, especially considering his 2014 was cut short due to injury. Regardless, here are his numbers:

2011 – 2012: 240 PA, 36 R, 16 HR, 42 RBI, 4 SB .301/.340/.580
2012 – 2013:
342 PA, 45 R, 15 HR, 70 RBI, 1 SB .289/.364/.538
2013 – 2014:
257 PA, 28 R, 6 HR, 35 RBI, 6 SB .290/.346/.450

Although his home run totals dropped, he does posses immense power. He homers about once every 22 plate appearances but ballpark effects in Cuba are hard to gauge. For comparison’s sake, here are some number of other recent Cuban Major Leaguers:

Yasmani Tomas: 821 PA, .293/.350/.523, OPS+ 134
Jose Abreu:
1015 PA, .356/.478/.681, OPS+ 180
Yoenis Cespedes:
1190 PA, .303/.384/.564, OPS+ 138
Alex Guerrero:
1009 PA, .327/.405/.578, OPS+ 129
Rusney Castillo:
556 PA, .322/.369/.518

Based on the data, Tomas probably compares the closest to Yoenis Cespedes. Though they are built differently, their slash lines and OPS+ are relatively close. The stats above underscore just how good Jose Abreu was in Cuba. For reference, Cespedes was 26 when he made his Major League debut for Oakland and Tomas just turned 24. But Cespedes’ rookie season looked like this:

Yoenis Cespedes 2012: 129 G, 70 R, 23 HR, 82 RBI, 16 SB .292/.356/.505 OPS+ 139

Cespedes was able to keep his slash lines close while improving his OPS+ by 1 with Oakland in his first season. With 3 extra years of experience but a much lower rated ballpark effect in Oakland, I would use Cespedes’ rookie year as the top of any projection for Tomas but would not recommend planning on it. Rather, I could see a slash line more like .245/.335/.485 for his rookie year with 20 to 25 home runs as he adjusts to life in the American Major Leagues. That is nothing to ignore at a time when power hitting corner outfielders are at a premium. I am willing to adjust my projections during the spring after we can get a look at how healthy his wrist is. If Tomas can hit the breaking ball he will be a great source of power as soon as 2015, just do not use Abreu as a guide. Pay for the power and be pleasantly surprised if he can hit .260 or higher.

Statistical credits: Obstructedview.net, Baseball-Reference.com, MLB.com
Photo cred: http://goo.gl/uhaH8A

Check out FantasyRundown.com for all of our latest articles and other great fantasy content.

Greg Jewett is The Sports Script’s senior fantasy baseball writer. Follow him on Twitter @gjewett9!