Top DFS Plays for 08/26/14

*Top hitters and pitchers highlight exceptional matchups that may include stars, lesser-known players and those on your waiver wires.

When I put together my top hitters and pitchers I factor in several things. First, prior matchup history, whether the hitter is hot and the pitcher’s history against that type of batter. Also, these matchups are normally released in the morning so make sure that you double-check the weather leading up to games in case they were postponed or the player got the day off.

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Top DFS hitters for today:

Ben Zobrist vs. Wei-Yin Chen - hitting .367 (11/30) with a 2B, a HR, 3 RBIs & 2 BBs

Matt Carpenter vs. Gerrit Cole – hitting .429 (3/7) with a HR, 2 RBIs & a BB
Carp took Cole yard in the last matchup between the two, he may not go yard but I expect a fantasy worthy game.

Jacoby Ellsbury vs. Rick Porcello - hitting .615 (8/13) with a 2B, 2 HRs, 2 RBIs & a BB

Michael Brantley vs. Jose Quintana - hitting .467 (7/15) with 2 2Bs, a HR, 4 RBIs & 2 BBs

Adrian Gonzalez vs. Trevor Cahill - hitting .458 (11/24) with 3 2Bs, 2 HRs, 7 RBIs & 3 BBs

Maybe??? Josh Rutledge vs. Madison Bumgarner - hitting .471 (8/17) with a 2B, a 3B, a HR, 3 RBIs & 2 BBs
Super sleeper start today and very cheap.

Ricky’s HR Guarantee: Michael Brantley

Top DFS Pitcher for today:

Brandon McCarthy vs. Detroit Tigers - McCarthy threw a complete game in his last outing and went 5 2/3 with 0 earned runs and 8 Ks in his last outing against the Tigers.

TV Show of the Day – Sons of Anarchy - Season 6 hits Blu-ray on Tuesday, I would pick that and the rest of the seasons up. Easily one of my all-time favorite shows

Follow me on Twitter @Rickygangster!

Top DFS Plays for 08/25/14

*Top hitters and pitchers highlight exceptional matchups that may include stars, lesser-known players and those on your waiver wires.

When I put together my top hitters and pitchers I factor in several things. First, prior matchup history, whether the hitter is hot and the pitcher’s history against that type of batter. Also, these matchups are normally released in the morning so make sure that you double-check the weather leading up to games in case they were postponed or the player got the day off.

New to Daily Fantasy? Head over to FanDuel.com and use Promo Code SCRIPT and get 100% match on your first deposit!

Top DFS hitters for today:

Evan Longoria vs. Chris Tillman - hitting .433 (13/30) with 2 2Bs, 5 HRs, 7 RBIs & 3 BBs
Longo went yard this year against Tillman this year already, can he do it again? I sure think so.

Toronto Blue Jays stack vs. Clay Buchholz - They have destroyed Clay this season. In 4 starts he has given up 18 ERs, 3 bombs and 13 BBs. I would start Adam Lind, Joey Bats and wouldn’t be scared to toss in Navarro or Reyes either.

Allen Craig vs. J.A. Happ - hitting .600 (6/10) with a 2B, 2 HRs & 6 RBIs

Derek Norris vs. Scott Feldman - hitting .714 (5/7) with a HR, 2 RBIs & 2 BBs

Buster Posey vs. Tyler Matzek - Posey hits LHP really well and RHH are hitting .308 with 7 Bombs against Matzek, as easy as 1 + 1 folks.

Ricky’s HR Guarantee: Evan Longoria

Top DFS Pitcher for today:

Boy these pitching matchups kind of suck today. 10 games today limits the matchup but here is who I am tossing out today.

John Lackey vs. Milwaukee Brewers - Back to back solid starts for Lackey after the beat down by the O’s. Not the best matchup but probably my favorite of the slate today.

Follow me on Twitter @Rickygangster!

Top DFS Plays for 08/24/14

*Top hitters and pitchers highlight exceptional matchups that may include stars, lesser-known players and those on your waiver wires.

When I put together my top hitters and pitchers I factor in several things. First, prior matchup history, whether the hitter is hot and the pitcher’s history against that type of batter. Also, these matchups are normally released in the morning so make sure that you double-check the weather leading up to games in case they were postponed or the player got the day off.

New to Daily Fantasy? Head over to FanDuel.com and use Promo Code SCRIPT and get 100% match on your first deposit!

Top DFS hitters for today:

Andrew McCutchen vs. Mike Fiers - hitting .545 (6/11) with 4 HRs & 9 RBIs

David Wright vs. Kevin Correia - hitting .765 (13/17) with 3 2Bs, 3 HRs & 6 RBIs
HOLY BATMAN! That’s insane numbers for a hitter/pitching matchup.

Carlos Santana vs. Brett Oberholtzer - hitting .667 (2/3) with a HR, a RBI & a BB

Jose Reyes vs. Chris Archer - hitting .600 (6/10) with 2 RBIs & 2 BBs

Adam Dunn vs. Chris Capuano - hitting .259 (7/27) with 2 2Bs, 2 HRs, 5 RBIs & 3 BBs
All the numbers suggest this is a terrible matchup for Dunn but LHH are hitting .318 against Caps this year. I like it even if it doesn’t look good on paper.

Desmond Jennings & James Lone vs. Drew Hutchinson - both guys have taken Hutchinson deep this year and Hutch is on a slide right now, love both of these guys today.

Ricky’s HR Guarantee: McCutchen

Top DFS Pitcher for today:

Jason Vargas vs. Texas Rangers - Over his last two starts Vargas has gone 16 innings, only giving up 1 run with 7 Ks. Love the matchup against the low Rangers.

Chris Sale vs. New York Yankees - Want to pay for pitching today? Sale is the guy, last outing against the Yankees, 6 innings, 1 hit and 10 Ks. Sale = Money.

Movie of the Day – When the Game Stands Tall - You know the story but it’s still an amazing story at that. Very good movie and worth a watch.

Follow me on Twitter @Rickygangster!

Top DFS Plays for 08/23/14

*Top hitters and pitchers highlight exceptional matchups that may include stars, lesser-known players and those on your waiver wires.

When I put together my top hitters and pitchers I factor in several things. First, prior matchup history, whether the hitter is hot and the pitcher’s history against that type of batter. Also, these matchups are normally released in the morning so make sure that you double-check the weather leading up to games in case they were postponed or the player got the day off.

New to Daily Fantasy? Head over to FanDuel.com and use Promo Code SCRIPT and get 100% match on your first deposit!

Top DFS hitters for today:

Jose Bautista vs. Jeremy Hellickson - hitting .348 (8/23) with a 2B, a 3B, 3 HRs, 4 RBIs & 4 BBs
The perfect cure for Joey Bats slump.

Ian Desmond vs. Tim Lincecum - hitting .714 (10/14) with 2 2Bs, 2 HRs & 6 RBIs

Joe Mauer vs. Justin Verlander - hitting .371 (23/62) with 4 2Bs, 3 HRs, 9 RBIs & 12 BBs

 Justin Upton vs. Mike Leake - hitting .545 (6/11) with a 2B, a HR, a RBI & a BB
Upton is hot and should be in all lineups as we all know he is a streaky hitter

Garrett Jones vs. Jordan Lyles - hitting .563 (9/16) with 2 2Bs, 2 HRs, 9 RBIs & 2 BBs
Jones was 2/4 with a RBI in his last game against Lyles.

Ricky’s HR Guarantee: Joey Bats

Top DFS Pitcher for today:

Adam Wainwright vs. Philadelphia Phillies - In his last outing against the Phillies he went 8 innings, gave up only 1 run and struck out 7. Easiest decision you’ll make when setting the lineup today.

Movie of the Day: The Internship - This movie really got lost in the shuffle last summer. This is a really funny movie and Vaughn and Wilson together is money every time.

Follow me on Twitter @Rickygangster!

Top DFS Plays for 08/22/14

*Top hitters and pitchers highlight exceptional matchups that may include stars, lesser-known players and those on your waiver wires.

When I put together my top hitters and pitchers I factor in several things. First, prior matchup history, whether the hitter is hot and the pitcher’s history against that type of batter. Also, these matchups are normally released in the morning so make sure that you double-check the weather leading up to games in case they were postponed or the player got the day off.

New to Daily Fantasy? Head over to FanDuel.com and use Promo Code SCRIPT and get 100% match on your first deposit!

Top DFS hitters for today:

Mark Teixeria vs. John Danks - hitting .533 (8/15) with 2 2Bs, a HR, 5 RBIs & a BB

Jacoby Ellsbury vs. John Danks - hitting .429 (6/14) with a 2B & a RBI

Jayson Werth vs. Tim Hudson - hitting .366 (15/41) with 4 2Bs, 3 HRs, 11 RBIs & 5 BBs

David Ortiz vs. King Felix - hitting .324 (11/34) with a 2B, a HR, 6 RBIs & 6 BBs
Love this matchup

Freddie Freeman, Justin Upton & Chris Johnson vs. Mat Latos - All hitting above .400 against Latos as well as over .400 over the last week.

Ricky’s HR Guarantee: David Ortiz  

Top DFS Pitcher for today:

Robbie Ray vs. Minnesota Twins - In his only start against the Twins this season he went 6 innings, 4 hits, 0 runs and 2 Ks. The Twins aren’t much better than they were on 5/11 of this year and they might be worst. It’s not going to be the flashiest starts today but he will get the job done and afford you to put some big time hitters in the lineup today.

Drew Smyly vs. Toronto Blue Jays - Smyly has gone back to back games into the 7th inning as well as striking out 13 over the course of those two games. Toronto hasn’t been playing it’s best baseball and neither has the Rays but I really like Smyly and his value today.

TV Show of the Day – Modern Family - All the tops Fall Shows are just a few short weeks away from coming back and this is one of the my favorites to watch. I love catching the re-runs on the 80 millions channels they are on.

Fantasy Forward: 3B In Transition

No Nolan, you are the man with 7 HR's and 20 RBI over the last 30 days. Do not sleep on him in 2015

No Nolan, you are the man! With 7 HR and 20 RBI over the last 30 days, do not sleep on him in 2015

“Times of transition are strenuous, but I love them. They are an opportunity to purge, rethink priorities and be intentional about new habits. We can make our new normal any way we want.”
Kristin Armstrong

After tracking the improvements of Nolan Arenado and Nick Castellanos recently, I decided to take a look at fantasy’s position in transition. While closers cause owners to chase saves, the dearth of solid third baseman left for fantasy purposes forced many tough decisions on draft and auction days in 2014. It pushed players like Evan Longoria and David Wright up in the rankings due to the “positional scarcity” that was projected at the position. While the scarcity argument may have had some basis for discussion, some players like Aramis Ramirez were overlooked. He did make a trip to the DL in 2014 but his production has not slipped. In fact, when I looked at the last 365 days, he is in the top two using advanced stats like wOBA (weighted on base average) and wRC+ (weighted runs created). Before delving into those stats, here are the top 12 third baseman according to Fantasy Pros aggregate ADP tracker:

Average ADP for 3B in 2014 Drafts:
1. Adrian Beltre (12)
2. Evan Longoria (19)
3. David Wright (21)
4. Matt Carpenter (56)
5. Josh Donaldson (65)
6. Ryan Zimmerman (67)
7. Carlos Santana (71)
8. Pedro Alvarez (76)
9. Kyle Seager (99)
10. Martin Prado (115)
11. Manny Machado (128)
12. Pablo Sandoval (131)

There are pretty standard decisions above and most of the picks will not cost in the pursuit of a fantasy title. However, the injury concerns that caused gamers to avoid Aramis Ramirez were ignored by the Ryan Zimmerman sympathizers. This will also call into question how to value Manny Machado going forward now that he has injured both of his knees. Due to the drop in power around the league, many reached for Pedro Alvarez regardless of his drain on batting average. Matt Carpenter was a great story and value in 2013, but that also swung his returns to pretty much nil in this year’s drafts. So as not to create a recent bias, I will look at the last 365 days (statistical year) for the third baseman next.

3B Ranks for the last 365 Days:
1. Aramis Ramirez: 132 G, 61 R, 20 HR, 80 RBI, 3 SB, 309/359/490, wOBA .374, wRC+ 135
2. Adrian Beltre: 50 G, 80 R, 22 HR, 81 RBI, 2 SB, 310/370/482, wOBA .368, wRC+ 129
3. Josh Donaldson: 159 G, 105 R, 32 HR, 109 RBI, 10 SB, 263/352/484, wOBA .365, wRC+ 137
4. Matt Carpenter: 163 G, 115 R, 9 HR, 65 RBI, 7 SB, 295/388/422, wOBA .361, wRC+ 132
5. Todd Frazier: 157 G, 84 R, 28 HR, 84 RBI, 18 SB, 272/329/462, wOBA .347, wRC+ 120
6. Pablo Sandoval: 157 G, 69 R, 19 HR, 75 RBI, 286/340/447, wOBA .343, wRC+ 125
7. Anthony Rendon: 150 G, 98 R, 17 HR, 78 RBI, 12 SB, 276/334/447, wOBA .341, wRC+ 117
8. Kyle Seager: 161 G, 63 R, 22 HR, 88 RBI, 8 SB, 253/330/427, wOBA .334, wRC+ 114
9. Chase Headley: 133 G, 49 R, 14 HR, 55 RBI, 8 SB, 248/353/391, wOBA .323, wRC+ 108
10. Evan Longoria: 166 G, 86 R, 23 HR, 90 RBI, 4 SB, 255/327/412, wOBA .322, wRC+ 108
11. Trevor Plouffe: 143 G, 63 R, 11 HR, 69 RBI, SB, 258/319/399, wOBA .317, wRC+ 100
12. David Wright: 126 G, 50 R, 10 HR, 60 RBI, 6 SB, 270/330/383, wOBA .315, wRC+ 104

Due to positional scarcity, David Wright and Evan Longoria were taken in very early in drafts earlier this year. Part name brand and part scarcity, but neither is justifying their draft price. The chart below, which highlights how qualified third basemen have performed over the last 30 days may be a great parameter on how to value players at the position entering 2015. A premium will be placed on third base prospects Kris Bryant (Cubs) and Joey Gallo (Rangers) as we await their debuts. Miguel Sano was drafted late this year with the hopes his power would be promoted by June but an injury took him out for the year. If the Phillies decide to rebuild next year, Maikel Franco should also benefit from a chance to play in the majors. All hope for the position has not been lost as young players like Nolan Arenado and Nick Castellanos are starting to show signs in the second half of breakout potential for next year. Todd Frazier is another player to watch moving ahead, he’s had an MVP-caliber season to date and it will be interesting to see if he can continue that into next season. Frazier, Josh Donaldson and Anthony Rendon are the only third baseman to have double-digit home runs and steals over the last statistical year, which bodes well for their production moving forward. Here are the rankings for the last thirty days:

3B Last 30 Days
1. Nolan Arenado: 20 R, 7 HR, 20 RBI, 333/410/618
2. Josh Harrison: 22 R, 5 HR, 9 RBI, 6 SB, 328/361/578
3. Josh Donaldson: 13 R, 4 HR, 14 RBI, 4 SB, 284/410/484
4. Matt Carpenter: 18 R, 3 HR, 14 RBI, 2 SB, 310/402/500
5. Aramis Ramirez: 9 R, 2 HR, 12 RBI, 337/356/480
6. Yangervis Solarte: 17 R, 3 HR, 12 RBI, 283/370/413
7. Adrian Beltre: 11 R, 3 HR, 12 RBI, 287/368/406
8. Nick Castellanos: 7 R, 4 HR, 15 RBI, 247/301/481
9. Kyle Seager: 12 R, 3 HR, 14 RBI, SB, 273/339/414
10. David Freese: 9 R, HR, 7 RBI, 286/340/417
11. Anthony Rendon: 19 R, 3 HR, 14 RBI, 4 SB, 269/326/420
12. Pablo Sandoval: 12 R, 2 HR, 12 RBI, 288/321/394

For next season, I’ll be avoiding Longoria and Wright while enjoying the safety of Adrian Beltre. I see myself heavily targeting Nolan Arenado, Anthony Rendon, Nick Castellanos and Kyle Seager in 2015. Getting an early look at how these players are trending is always interesting. I definitely predict seeing gamers continue to reach for third baseman next year thanks to the scarcity trend, but there are players to be had and help on the way in the minor leagues. Third base is in a down cycle, but that should be changing soon.

Statistical credits: Fangraphs.com
Photo cred: http://goo.gl/wDFYnx

Greg Jewett is The Sports Script’s senior fantasy baseball writer. Follow him on Twitter @gjewett9!

Be sure to check for our articles and more at FantasyRundown.com, your one stop shop for the best fantasy content from around the web!

The Fantasy Forecaster 08/20/14

Ricky and Tim are back with another episode of The Fantasy Forecaster! In this episode, the guys are joined by Andy Singleton from Level Up Fantasy. They discuss the red hot Mike Fiers, under-owned starting pitchers, whether Josh Hamilton is still ownable in mixed leagues, pitchers who may face an innings cap and their early 2015 top 10 ranks. Of course, the show includes a visit from Jeff of the Infirmary Report as he outlines the injury news around baseball.

You can stream on demand here.
You can also subscribe/download on iTunes here. Don’t be shy to leave a positive rating or comment, either!

Make sure to follow Ricky (@rickygangster), Timothy (@TKing978), Jeff (@InfirmaryReport) and Andy (@PeoplezPen) on Twitter!

We will be back next Wednesday (August 27) to recap all of the hottest topics in fantasy baseball. Make sure to tune in!

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